Saturday 26 March 2016

From MilesR: The Final Stat Round Up NEW & Improved!

Now with MORE Russia!

Yes dear friends, it's time once again for me to don the garb of a mysterious "Mathamagician" and delve into the dark arts of statistics to divine if our efforts have pleased or angered those capricious painting gods.  Gather round our virtual campfire and gaze, amazed, upon my efforts.  I shall call upon the the power of light with the use of addition and subtraction.  I shall contest the powers of darkness through the use of multiplication and division.  I shall raid your retirement funds through the use of financial mumbo jumbo - oops wrong ritual - lets forget that last line, shall we?

So how did we do this year?  A total of 72 out of 88 registered participants produced a total of 64,690 which essentially equals what was produced last year, despite this year being 2 weeks shorter in duration.  That's pretty impressive.

What, you want, nay, you crave more inane details?  Well I'm just the guy you need to see about that.

First, lets discuss score distribution:

Score Dist                 IV                 V                VI
Top 5 25% 26% 20%
Top 10 41% 42% 33%
Top 20 62% 63% 56%

I was very surprised to see the scores more evenly distributed in Challenge VI - with the Top 10 contributing 33% of the points vs 41-42% in the previous years.

Points production per day was relatively constant with the exception of the last day which saw almost 6,000 points get submitted - wow.  Most of the big spikes over 3K are caused by our grand and illustrious leader entering the bonus rounds in bulk and sadly without scale detail AKA "the Purple Stain".  I am sure his data accuracy transgression will not have please the painting gods.

In terms of points by scale, it's clear that 28mm continues to dominate with with 55% of the attributes points.  The actual number is likely closer to 70% but we'll never know due to the abomination of the Purple Stain.  Why some people hold on to the delusions that anarchy is somehow better than rigid adherence to rules is beyond me.  Perhaps I can ask Mr Trump to consider adopting "making points calculations great again" part of his platform?  Given all the random crap he's coming up with it's not as farfetched as one might think.

But enough statistical foreplay, lets get on to the main event - the big, the intimidating, the astounding AHPC VI Key Performance Indicator tracking table - to tell you the truth "big data tables" make me feel a little giddy and light headed.  Some of you with more delicate quantitative constitutions may feel the need to swoon now - it's ok we'll wait a few minutes....

Ok, everybody ready - lets go!

Weeks Completed24681113
Weeks Remaining1197520
Participants w/ a Submission416167677075
Total Submissions98231359478590811
Total Points6,39218,32830,25239,81251,59964,690
Participation Rate47%69%76%76%80.0%85%
Average per Submitter156300452716716863
Avg per Submission65798410010080
Submitter % of Target Completed16%34%51%77%82%99%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds12,30010,2507,7503,7502,5000
Non Submitters @ 25% / wk8@10%10,0754,0562,3707803020
Projected Total Points60,72769,29070,62465,41963,61364,690
Figures Painted
Cav / Art34140326386471537
Cav / Art325106193230294
Cav / Art106180234315362409
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%11%11%9%10%12%
Other Scales9%13%16%33%24%20%

What can we derive from this mathematical masterpiece of obfuscation?  First I was surprised to see 15mm really not have that big of an impact in terms of points - it's 28mm or go home in this competition.

Production per biweekly segment was relatively constant excluding the mad rush at the end.  During the competent there were 811 total entries at an average point level 80 points each.  The total point forecasting model proved to be rather accurate and honed in on the total point production by week 8.  To be honest, I'm rather surprised it worked because I used the same model I had in 2008 forecasting mortgage delinquencies and that didn't work out all that well.

Given that we have the spreadsheet of doom tracking everything (and I mean EVERYTHING Ray R - you should be ashamed of yourself) we can also look at participation and productivity on a geographical basis:

  The UK has both the biggest number of participants (23) and the largest point contribution (17,097), followed by the US at 12 /12,491 and Canada at 9 / 7,539.

If we look at national unit productivity, we see a much different picture with Russia at the highest and  the US taking a decisive lead over it's former colonial tormentors.  It's also nice to see the wonderful island nation of Ireland tower over it British neighbors in productivity.  To paraphrase from Audi, "There is truth in painting".  I'm pretty sure that Audi and their VW parents aren't using that tagline for awhile.

Australia doesn't do so hot but then again the weather's nice right now.  

Total PointsParticipantsPts/Participant
Grand Total64,69088735

Economic Impact
I'll end this tome with the part you've all been waiting for - what's the economic impact of the Challenge?  Or should I say.....

Yeah, baby, SHOW ME THE MONEY!

First a word on the methodology,

The total points (64,690) are adjusted into the equivalent number 28mm infantry figures by dividing by 5, which gets us 12,938 miniatures,  

Next a cost to produce that painted figure is estimated and then applied to the the projected number of figures

Direct Figure Cost          $2.25 (some are plastic / some are metal, all are expensive)
Paint Basing Supplies     $0.75
Painting Time                  $8.00 per figure (a little over 30 minutes per)
  Total Cost                      $11.00

Total Direct economic impact of the challenge is 12,938 time $11.00, which equals $142,318 - a tidy little sum.

But wait there's more, none off us replace one figure with another so there's a multiplier effect for every figure we paint we have this irresistible urge to replace it with 4 more - that's an economic velocity factor of 4 that needs to be applied to the direct benefit (trust me, I'm a financial services professional).  So the true economic impact of the Challenge for this year is $569,272 !!!!!!!!

But what if we totaled the cumulative economic impact of all six challenges to see the true economic juggernaut that Curt has unleashed upon our sleepy little hobby - well through the awesome power of the spreadsheet we can and we did:

It adds up to $1,922,708 - oh hell we're all friends, lets just round it of to a cool $2 Million buckaroonies.  If only Curt had taken my advice about adding in the revenue share cut in the terms and services disclosure.....

Look an obligatory pie chart...

Summary TablesCummulative
Total Points2,24530,56542,07959,93565,10564,690264,619
Equivalent 28mm Inf Figs4496,1138,41611,98713,02112,93852,924
Economic Value Created14,211193,476266,360379,389500,000569,2721,922,708

I think Peter Gabriel put it best:

Hey wake up! - this is exciting stuff.

The Hall of Heroes:
As we bring this year's statistical wrap up to an end (I'm sure all of you want more) we must pay our respects to the Hall of Painting Heroes in Vallejohalla:

Highest Individual ScoresRankChallengeNameScore

Yet again we see RayR perched at the top of the heap sunning himself like a beached elephant seal for all to see - ugh I deeply apologize for the visual images.  Despite societal mores about public display, his mark of 4,940 points in a single challenge may well stand forever.  Yes RayR is the true "alpha painting male" in our little subspecies.  I shall let each of you ponder those implications to our collective chances on the evolutionary scale.

Scandal! Shame!
It is my sad duty to report that the arcane rules and special incantations required to be performed to award the coveted Greatest Improvement in Miniature Painting (the GIMP Award!) have been confiscated by PETA due to their narrow minded concerns about animal sacrifice.  Without completing the entire ritual it is impossible to make the award this year.  According to both the bylaws of the League of Challenge Painters and our deep sense of Fair Play, the recipient of last years award retains the title for this year - Congratulations Millsy, your are our GIMP and retain both the title, honors, duties and uniform that go along with that august mantle.

Yes, I do think the painting gods are happy with us, don't you?


  1. So Ireland got silver? Great work Miles!

  2. Ireland should always get gold, but all the other nations get jealous so it gets silver in name of world peace.

    But we all know it's really gold.

  3. Lovely calculations. It is a pity that it is not taken into account the participation of Russia.

    1. That sounded strange s I checked the spreadsheet. It seems that someone mistakenly recorded you as being in the UK

    2. Well, I thought that when I am very old, will move in this quiet country, but now I'm curious to live in Russia. :)

    3. My apologies the error has been fixed and Russia is now represented amongst the painting Nations.

    4. a very big thank you and apologize for the inconvenience caused by me.

  4. Genius. The growth in the challenge over 6 years is staggering. Have a feeling the snow lord is a secret capitalist.

  5. Thanks for the mumbojumboery Miles. Very nformative.

    I'm not sure even Millsbegone will be strong enough to erase that image of Ray you have wickedly seared into my brain. You are a cruel, cruel man!

    However, at the end I believe that you forgot to call on us all to repeat a certain ritual incantation. Do you wish me to act as the celebrant for that? You do? OK.

    Everybody repeat after me "Millsy is a GIMP"

    1. I set'em up and you knock'em down!

      That's teamwork, my friend

  6. Brilliant analysis Miles -$2M!!!

    Sorry Aussies, looks like I pulled the average down rather dramatically

  7. I apologize, Miles. Partway through I felt a pop in my head and my right eye began to stare at my nose. All I retained is Ray sunbathing on sandbags and Millsy is indeed a GIMP....;)

  8. Brilliant work Miles. As a connoisseur of bullshit, I can confirm that this is absolutely the highest quality. I foresee an excellent crop of tomatoes this summer.

    The purple stain remains a blot on statistical integrity. I would have expected that a digital archivist would have a higher regard for the integrity of data. Perhaps a remedial course in data entry is in order, perhaps using punch cards with a keyboard with sticky keys?

    1. I agree with Gabby Johnson

    2. I simply adhere to the appropriately named 'Peter Principle' whose thesis states that 'I have been promoted to the level commensurate with my incompetence.' ;)

    3. Aah , The Primate principle.. The higher the tree you go..the more of your arse you display...!

  9. Now Miles, while I am totally incompetent in anything Mathamagic related, I do know my way about Gaming Theology and you're consistently praying to the wrong Gods if you ask me. You give us very fine numbers, I am 100% sure you've done the right calculations, but the "Painting" Gods do not care one % or even 100% about all them numbers, because well they obviously revell in painted miniatures not numbers... So what am I on about? In this post of yours, you have unwittingly managed to please not just one "cloud" of Gods but two! I think you have pleased them Maths Gods who like tinkering with an abacus and calculating the speeds of cocnut laden birds AND the Painting Gods who like to see us put as much paint to lead or plastic!

    Anyway many thanks for this informative list of statistics!

    Cheers Sander

  10. I think you will of course find that Millsy has to play "tag" to hand over GIMP.. It does not merely expire through lack of other effort,,so "Milsy is a GIMP" still applies..

    Good to see a Pie Chart.. And just how much the manufacturers really should be sponsoring us by..

    Of course , the first law of management is to challenge any data that you don't actually understand or produce ... Rather than the overall trends and analysis. . As it does not of course include each years challenges total points for all participant it can't be taken seriously. The should of course bring down the Alpha Painting Monkey Mr Roussel

  11. Absolutely brilliant work Miles! In reading this post I am both confused yet somehow confident something good happened - as a 'financial services grifter, er, professional' you must be pleased on your effectiveness.

    In regards to the offending 'Purple Stain' I suggest you simply count each theme entry as two 28mm figures as that is what they would have averaged out as. This will reinforce your assertion that '28mm is king'.

    1. It's all based on numerical assumptions from a spreadsheet so you know it's rock solid stuff - just sign on the dotted line and trust me....

    2. He say is a doctor next...

  12. Wonderful analysis, thanks! :)

  13. Great work, Miles. I love the painting profit accelerator. On that basis, the Challenge will have it's own GDP in a couple of years!

    1. We need these central bank types to throw a little Keynesian "stimulus" our way...

  14. How can we be expected to take this seriously? There's a random data point on the map several hundred kilometres* east of New Zealand for starters! There's no land mass of note out there as anyone who lives outside of North America well knows.

    * I deliberately didn't use "Miles" as the measure of distance. It is well known to be the dodgiest unit of measurement going around.

    1. I just find it cute how our American cousins cling to the last vestige of their Imperial heritage by insisting on being the only nation to measure things in units based on medieval Kings' body parts.

      I agree that Miles is a very dodgy standard of measurement.

    2. At least they've learned to drive on the right side of the street...

    3. Right side? Yes. Correct side? That's debatable.

    4. Oh good god, that's right, you antipodean gits drive on the left. Unbelievable. Maybe it's something to do with the hemisphere, or perhaps too much heat... :)

    5. Nothing to do with the heat. We just don't trust the rest of you so we stick to the old medieval custom where it was militarily prudent to do so.

    6. This comment has been removed by the author.

    7. As I recall it Curt, you Canucks started driving on the correct side and then changed to pander to your southern neighbours. We have simply continued in the manner in which we began :-)

    8. @Paul: You're not entirely correct. Only the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia drove on the left and then came to their senses in the early 1920's - meaning perhaps 20 cars total in Canada drove on the left. :) The rest of Canada (and the majority of the population) always drove on the right.

      Of course this all goes out the window when the snow drifts chokes our lanes down to one, or the black ice makes us drive on the left whether we want to or not. ;P

  15. I am both happy and honored to be named the "alpha painting male", even if I have to dress up as a beached elephant seal!
    Great stats Miles, a little confusing for me being crap at that type of thing!

    1. Ray is Into to CosPlay?

    2. I think this makes him a "Furry" Google that and be prepared to be shocked.

    3. At least there's one group that even odder than us!

  16. Fantastic stuff. As a fellow practicing finance "professional" I find all this information most pleasing and very relaxing. The lack of PowerPoint is the only review comment of note that I can make and perhaps one to review during 360 degree feedback? The growth in the challenge is amazing..... Next year's one will need to be even bigger!

    1. These stats are only useful insofar as they could have been twisted to show I somehow defeated Jamie - since they did not, I reject them as witchcraft!

    2. Don't give him ideas! All he needs is an abacus, a slide rule, some regression analysis and the standard deviation to an insignificant level of confidence and the tables will be turned......

  17. Ashamed of Spain!
    Too much time invested in tapas and Rioja instead of painting
    Of course our sunny weather does not help our productivity against the cold Russia or the ert Ireland
    The math genius should adjust these scores by the weather effect in order ti have a more accurate picture

    1. Wet Ireland ... Bloody speller!!

    2. It has been my experience that time spent on Tapas and Rioja is time well spent, indeed

    3. Now your preaching to the choir! Amen Reverand Fluffy!

  18. Sorry I was late, I've been out of town.

    A brilliant post that made me laugh out loud in so many places. Who doesn't love stats on Easter? Santa, that's who. It makes him jealous.

    Look at our economic impact. Honestly all the miniature manufacturers owe Curt a debt of gratitude. And they owe the rest of us free stuff.