Monday, 16 January 2017

MIlesR: Week 4 Stats Update

Brace yourselves indeed, cause the bi-weekly AHPC Statistical Update is coming at you with a full load of mind numbing mathematical minutia.

That's right, Stats Fans, the numbers are in and the inferences are statistically significant.

The past two weeks saw a large increase in painting submissions, and we now stand with 81 of our 100 fellow challengers having made a submission.  As of tonight (Jan 15th) there have been 239 total submissions, including a staggering 47 (50 Ed.) entries in the armor (Armour Ed.) bonus round - that's a record!)

Lets go to the trend table and comparison to this time last year:

Weeks Completed24681113
Weeks Remaining1197520
Participants w/ a Submission4781
Total Submissions89239
Total Points7,71121,906
Participation Rate47%81%
Average per Submitter164270
Avg per Submission8792
Submitter % of Target Completed16%32%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds9,2616,787
Non Submitters @ 25%13,3581,657
Projected Total Points72,74178,394
Figures Painted
Cav / Art69155
Cav / Art28178
Cav / Art1118
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%11%
Other Scales4%9%

Total scored points almost tripled to just under 22K over the past 2 weeks and we're at a 81% participation rate.  As with past challenges, the pace of submissions really jumps in weeks 3 and 4 once people are past the Holidays.  We saw a total of 150 submissions in weeks 3 and 4 vs the 89 we saw in the first 2 weeks of the Challenge.  Scientist all over the world are still debating the significance of the "Post Christmas-Rush".  I, for one, humbly submit it's proof positive that Holiday family obligations tend to negatively impact painting productivity.

In terms of participation, this years Challenge is at an all time high of 81% - even more impressive was the fact that the first bonus round (armor - and yes that is the CORRECT WAY to spell armour (Wrong. Ed.) shattered yet another record with 47 (50 Ed.) participants.  Umm it's actually 51....

I'm sure your all sitting there at your screens in breathless anticipation of what all this record breaking activity implies for the projected total points output.  Well lets crank up the ole Point-o-Projector Mechanism and dare to see the future.....

add the 3, carry the 4, sacrifice the goat and chant the dark statistical incantations ....


The number 78,394 emerges from the gloom to illuminate our lives with its unnecessary exactness.

I think I may be slightly over estimating but that's where the math stands.

In terms of scales, 28mm continues it's right and just domination of the tallies.  We did see the first inclusion of bonus round points (2,500 from the Armor (Armour Ed.) round).

We do have some ominous news to report - the fate of the 19 non-submitters, now referred to as the "Missing 19" is in serious doubt.  After painting up a passel of Spanish Fascists, it seems Curt has adopted a more authoritarian tone and making moves to purge the rolls of the missing 19.  While the Challenge Constitution gives him the power to make such decrees in times of emergency and he has done so with proper notifications, such a move is unprecedented.  All I can say from my position of Challenge Statistician is that Curt is adorable when he acts all authoritarian-like (Funny, Sarah says the same thing. Ed.). 

Comparing the first 4 weeks of VII vs VI:

Compared to Last Year
Weeks Completed44
Weeks Remaining99
Participants w/ a Submission8161
Total Submissions239231
Total Points21,90618,328
Participation Rate81%69%
Average per Submitter270300
Avg per Submission9279
Submitter % of Target Completed32%34%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds6,78710,250
Non Submitters 1,6574,056
Projected Total Points78,39469,290
Figures Painted
Cav / Art155140
Cav / Art17825
Cav / Art18180
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"11%11%
Other Scales9%13%

The key comparison is that everything seems to be on the same glide path but just a bit bigger.  Kind of like my waist line each passing year...

Well there you have, the Stats Update for week 4 is in the books.  All Hail Math, All Hail Math...

(Jeez. Can't spell. Can't do math with his socks on. How did this guy get this job? Oh wait... Ed.)

From RayR - 25mm Woodland Indians (60 points)

For my third entry into the Challenge, I painted up 12 25mm Warlord Games 
Woodland Indians with bows, that I received as Christmas pressies.
There are two pack, 1 i got from my Secret Santa, the other from 2 of my daughters!

I'm not entirely happy with them though, I think you'll all agree they look a tad
sun tanned!?! I should have changed the flesh colour when I had the chance, lets just say they've just come back from a 2 week holiday in the sun and be done with it!!
If my math is correct, these aftersun coated beauties should net me 60 pts??

MilesR: What's this - now a 12th entry on Monday?  Even more impressive is that RayR has his math right - will the spate of Monday miracles ever cease?

Ray - these chaps are very nicely painted.  I didn't realize that Warlord carried a first nations line and I will need to check them out - FIW skirmish gaming is always a lot of fun and works well with the Donnybrook ruleset.