A Statisitcal Reckoning for "The Ocho" DRAFT

Here-Ye, Here-Ye, It is time to call the annual convocation os Mathamagical Statistics to order. All of you are fortunate to be called to witness the quantitative beauty that is the Statistical Wrap Up for Challenge VIII - "The OCHO!"

A word of caution before we delve into the under world of mathamagics - you enter at your own risk, as clearly stated in the terms of use for the Challenge (Thank you Google!).  Your brains are about to be exercised in ways they may not be ready for.  If you sense a Chuthulu like madness descending upon yourself you must act quickly or face doom.  The best defense once beset by mathamagical madness syndrome (MMS) is to quickly rest ones eyes upon one of the graphs spread liberally through out this missive.  Obviously, graphics are meant as mental "safe places" for the quantitatively frail and are now required due to revisions to the ADA regulations.  Those of us who are "Alpha-Quants" will be responsible for shepherding our "New Math" brethren to a safe harbor.  You have been warned.

Are we ready to descend into the Stats dungeon like a proper dungeon party?  Lets us go forward into the statistical night armed with slide rules and hand calculators.  What wonders await us in the mathamagical depths of the OCHO.

Lets find out.


First of all a high level comparison between VIII and VII

The OCHO Summary
	VIII	VII
Participants	76	96
Submissions	770	919
Total Points	78,038	83,200
Avg per Participant	1,027	867
Avg per Submission	101	91

While total points are down a tad, that's due to 20 less participants making submissions.  If viewed on a relative basis the average points per participant was significant higher at 1,027 vs 867 last year.  That's a major increase in productivity!  We also saw one of the longest standing records for a challenge fall in a dramatic way but more on that later....

First a look at how Challenge 8 compares to it's 7 predecessors - quite favorably if you ask my opinion especially when one takes into account the percentage dip in participants (-21%) was far greater than the actual decline in total points (-6%).  As a group we tried admirably to take up the slack.



28mm remained, by far, the preferred scale of our pigmenting protagonists in this year's winter passion play.  There was a decline in 15mm production from the historic highs of Challenge VII.

The new Terrain category didn't really move the needle that much also as only a total of 2,740 points was awarded for terrain submissions this year.  In the past challenge we did have a terrain themed bonus round that that generated a total of 845 points (excluding the theme round bound points) so really only a 1,900 point increase in total terrain points.  Still I really liked the inclusion of terrain and hope it stays as a permanent category going forward.




One are that did see an material change during Challenge 8 was the concentration of points in the upper end of the point generators.  In part I think it can be due to Kent's amazing productivity but he was not alone.  Maybe the painting world mirrors the real life Trumpian one where tax savings and painting totals accrue more to the upper end - who knows how these crazy economics work?

Percent of Total Points	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII
Top 5	25%	26%	20%	22%	29%
Top 10	41%	42%	33%	35%	44%
Top 20	62%	63%	56%	53%	62%

And just because I can (the concept of "should" never entered my mind) lets take a look at the pace of submissions and their size over time.

ooooo  - look at all the pretty dots

And how does this daily look compare to last year - glad you asked 'cause here it is:  The only real difference his there were a lot more "mega days" during 8.  Also the end of challenge rush was a bit more muted than last year.  Still it's a lot of pretty red and blue dots so that's got to mean something.



Lets leave the snowflake world of graphics and look and lean and hard data tables - the kind your grandfather used to memorize while walking uphill to and from school in howling snowstorms during the summer.

AHPC VIII: THE STATS ROUNDUP
KPI's:
Weeks Completed	2	4	7	9	11	13
Weeks Remaining	11	9	6	5	2	0
Participants w/ a Submission	52	67	76	76	76	76
Total Submissions	118	238	420	531	633	770
Total Points	7,184	18,716	36,562	48,552	59,553	78,038
Participation Rate	65%	84%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Average per Submitter	138	279	481	639	784	1,027
Avg per Submission	61	79	87	91	94	101
Submitter % of Target Completed	15%	41%	59%	79%	97%	127%
Projected Points
Submitters	46,696	60,827	67,901	79,045	81,097	78,038
Remaining Bouns Rounds	7,500	9,000	3,500	0	0	0
Non Submitters (Discounted)	6,769	1,090	0	0	0	0
Projected Total Points	60,965	70,917	71,401	79,045	81,097	78,038
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	882	1,891	3,277	4,465	5,404	7,312
Cav / Art	47	128	300	432	476	678
Vehicles	20	51	95	117	136	169
15MM
Inf	110	404	1,160	1,413	2,089	2,924
Cav / Art	16	25	184	209	259	598
Vehicles	16	70	143	175	260	342
6MM
Inf	834	1,483	1,781	2,211	2,355	2,479
Cav / Art	22	52	56	116	116	133
Vehicles	70	187	316	324	332	342
Score Distribution
28MM	72%	61%	57%	58%	57%	59%
15MM	5%	7%	11%	10%	11%	13%
6MM	8%	6%	4%	4%	3%	3%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	0%	12%	16%	16%	16%	12%
Terrain	3%	4%	3%	3%	2%	4%
Other Scales	15%	10%	8%	9%	10%	10%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

	Challenge	Challenge	+/- Var	+/- Var
KPI's:	VIII	VII	Units	Percentage
Weeks Completed	13	13
Weeks Remaining	0	0
Participants w/ a Submission	76	96	-20	-21%
Total Submissions	770	919	-149	-16%
Total Points	78,038	83,200	-5,162	-6%
Participation Rate	100%	100%		0%
Average per Submitter	1,027	867	160	18%
Avg per Submission	101	91	11	12%
Submitter % of Target Completed	127%	132%	-4.77%	-4%
Projected Points
Submitters	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Remaining Bouns Rounds	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Non Submitters @ 50%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Projected Total Points	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	7,312	7,945	-633	-8%
Cav / Art	678	719	-41	-6%
Vehicles	169	175	-6	-3%
15MM
Inf	2,924	3,679	-755	-21%
Cav / Art	598	817	-219	-27%
Vehicles	342	467	-125	-27%
6MM
Inf	2,479	2,112	367	17%
Cav / Art	133	195	-62	-32%
Vehicles	342	631	-289	-46%
Score Distribution
28MM	59%	60%	-0.76%
15MM	13%	16%	-2.95%
6MM	3%	3%	-0.39%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	12%	12%	0.11%
Terrain	4%	1%	2.50%
Other Scales	10%	8%	1.49%
Total	100%	100%

Economic Value Add
One of my favorite parts of this post is estimating the economic impact that Challenge has on the miniatures industry.  I'm using our standard estimating methodology which consists of:

1) Equating the total points produced into an equivalent number of 28mm infantry figures - this is done by dividing the total score by 5, since we award 5 points per figure.

2) I then break down the cost of submitting a figure by estimating unit costs for (i) the cost of the mini and base, (ii) the cost of paints, glue and other supplies and finally (iii) an estimate of the value of labor form painting time.  I've raised the unit charges for both Paints, etc and Painting Time to reflect the inclusion of terrain as a category and the fact that most of our economies are entering a period of sustained rising rates - which will drive some form of cost inflation.

The base value add is then the product of multiplying the unit costs times the equivalent number of 28mm figures - in this case $16.00 times 15,608, which equals $249,722

but we're not done....

3) The last step is to factor in velocity of spending.  It is a scientific fact that when miniature painters replace a figure, we don't simply do so on a one for one basis.  No, the heresy of "paint one / buy one" hasn't infected out happy society.  In fact we are much more likely to replace a painted figure with a number of new and shiny unpainted figures.  In truth, there are likely some scientific studies that have estimated this replacement velocity at 4 - for every one figure painted, one buys 4.  Personally, I find that number very conservative but lets go with the sake of science.

Using the "4" velocity factor and the base EVA of $249,722 , one gets a total economic impact of just under $1MM bucks.  A tidy little sum, indeed.

Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)
Total Points	78,038
Equivalent 28mm Inf Minis	15,608		Economic
			Value Add
Cost per Mini	$2.50		$39,019
Painte etc	$2.50		$39,019
Painting TIme	$11.00		$171,684
Sub Total			$249,722
Velocity	4		$998,886

Even more impressive is the the lifetime total of EVA for the Challenge is approaching $4MM dollars.  I think we can get that value past $5MM by the end of Challenge !

EVA Trendline									Lifetime
	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	Total
Participants	6	24	48	61	72	88	96	76	471
Total Points	2,245	30,565	42,079	59,935	65,105	64,690	83,200	78,038	425,857
Equivalent 28mm figures	449	6,113	8,416	11,987	13,021	12,938	16,640	15,608	85,172
Economic Value Created (000's)	$14.2	$193.5	$266.4	$379.4	$500.0	$569.3	$898.6	$998.9	$3,820.2

Hall of Heroes:

It's now time to take a trip to the Hall of Heroes, where we can gave upon the visages of our painting champions as they bask in the sun.  Word to the wise - knock before you enter.  Ray's become obsessed with avoiding tan lines and well umm some things just can't be unseen.  I think he's watching to much of "Keeping Up with the Kardassians".  Anyway, through challenge 8 there have been a total of 471 entrants, with many people participating multiple times.

First, I'm very happy to announce that the exclusive "10,000 Club" is welcoming two new members this year as both Martin C and Kent G have amassed more than 10,000 lifetime Challenge posts.  They will soon be joining DaveD, Tamsin, RayR and yours truly in our swanky walnut paneled painting room.  Gentlemen, your club painting jackets should arrive in the mail any day now.  Please remember to wear them at all club functions.  Please don't listen to anything Ray might say about club attire protocols and pants are definitely required.  Oh, one last thing, - any rumors you might hear about club funds being inappropriately diverted to building a "20,000 club annex" are greatly exaggerated....

Rank	Name	Lieftime Points	# of Challenges
1	MilesR	19,609	7
2	DaveD	16,786	7
3	MartinC	13,835	4
4	KentG	12,518	3
5	RayR	11,880	7
6	TamsinP	10,328	5
7	ByronM	9,883	5
8	Millsy	9,457	6
9	IanW	8,692	6
10	AlexS	8,583	3

Perhaps the most astonishing accomplishment of this year's challenge is the setting of a new individual challenge painting total - KentG managed to paint an astonishing 5,343 points which eclipsed the previous mark held by Ray since Challenge 2.  I'm gobsmacked by Kent's productivity and amazing quality.  Hat's off to Kent!

Challenge 8 was also remarkable as it set 5 of the top 15 lifetime scores - a most productive Challenge if ever there was one.

Rank	Challenge	Challenger	Points
1	8	KentG	5,343
2	2	RayR	4,940
3	8	NoelW	4,880
4	2	KentG	4,724
5	8	MilesR	4,550
6	4	AndrewS	4,180
7	5	DaveD	4,138
8	7	MilesR	4,125
9	3	ChrisP	4,076
10	7	MartinC	4,051
11	8	ByronM	3,881
12	5	MarkO	3,854
13	8	MartinC	3,844
14	3	JamesB	3,761
15	7	GrahameH	3,611

Well there you have - the story of the Challenge in Stats.

I think some thanks are in order:

Curt: Thanks again for organizing this madness and letting it take over your winter months up there in Canadia-Land

Sarah: Thanks for putting up with this silliness

My fellow Minioneers: Thanks for surviving yet another encounter with the spreadsheet of doom.  I'm thinking of redesigning the thing from scratch next year so we can make all sorts of new mistakes together.

My Fellow Challengers: Thanks for a wonderful 3 months and a reminder that this hobby is filled with great people and fellowship.

Now it's time for us all to emerge from the basement and figure out what that round yellow thing in the sky is.