Tuesday, 8 March 2016

From MilesR: The Week 11 Statistical Update - so good 'cause it goes to 11!

 Here we go - the most exciting post of the day! the almost bi-weekly statistical update!  Even more impressive, this update has rather foolish charts and pretty colors to distract the gullible and influence the weak willed - trust me I'm a Financial Services Professional and I know how to use "graphics as a lethal weapon"

On with the show - the first chart shows total points by almost bi-weekly status report and our final estimated tally of 63K points at the conclusion of the Challenger.  Holy Crap thats two weeks way - you'd better get painting you bastards!

  If we look at the distribution of points by scale we can see that 28mm continues it's rightful dominance in this years challenge.  In other words all is right with the world.  Sadly, I do need to point out a growing discrepancy in the data - the ever increasing purple stain of the "other category".  What's driving this resurgence in the other segment - a new and exciting miniature scale?  Nope,  it's seems that one of our minions is a secret data anarchist who insists on entering data in banal totals of points rather than using the brilliantly elegant scale segments provided for in the "spreadsheet of wonder"  Who is this fiend that scoffs at analytical correctness and shockingly rounds to the nearest whole number.  Certain legal agreements preclude me from naming the fiend and pointing out his secret hide out in the great white north.  No I can not name this person cough, cough curt, cough cough....

All of you must be wondering how AHPV VI "Seis Grandes" companies with its past incarnations.  Well we're setting the record for the number of active participants but may fall slight below last years total point output.  One should bear in mind that this years challenge is both two weeks shorter than last year and has one fewer bonus round.  If we look at a efficiency measure of points per week AHPC VI is clocking in at 4,893 pts per week vs last years 4,340 pts per week - that's a 13% improvement in productivity.

Our last graph is a time series that show painting points by day the last 11 weeks.  What can we gleam from this chart - probably nothing, but you people seem to clamber for pretty pictures so here you go.  Stand and gaze slack jawed at the pretty blue dots.

Enough with pictograms and lets get to the real data to chart of doom:

Weeks Completed246811
Weeks Remaining119752
Participants w/ a Submission4161676770
Total Submissions98231359478590
Total Points6,39218,32830,25239,81251,599
Participation Rate47%69%76%76%80%
Average per Submitter156300452716737
Avg per Submission65798410087
Submitter % of Target Completed16%34%51%77%82%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds12,30010,2507,7503,7502,500
Non Submitters @ 25% / wk8@10%10,0754,0562,370780241
Projected Total Points60,72769,29070,62465,41963,613
Figures Painted
Cav / Art34140326386471
Cav / Art325106193230
Cav / Art106180234315362
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%11%11%9%10%
Other Scales9%13%16%33%24%

Hmmm, what do we see here

Total projected points for "Sies Grandes" is estimated to come in at 63K - I think thats a fair guess but will require a little extra effort form all of you out there in painting land - so lets get cracking, I would so hate to be disappointed in you.

We did pick up 3 participants bring the total number of submitters up to a record breaking 70.  As for the forlorn 18 without a submission we can only hope they find some form of solace.

Activity did pick up the last two weeks and I suspect there will be a bit of frenzy getting to the close.

In closing, I'll leave you with the following chart - draw your own conclusions...

Sour Cream - it's a killer in so many ways.


  1. Well done Miles I was missing our regular stats update. Please note that I understand the importance of good data and have correctly coded each entrant on my watch.

    Can you send me the source of the sour cream-motorbike fatalities chart. I'll have to use that in class.

    1. Peter, it's printed on the chart: 'Spurious Correlations' by Tyler Vigen.

      I also like the correlation between 'per capita cheese consumption' and 'number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets'

    2. My favourite correlation I was told about in Statistics was that between the stork population of Sweden and the birth rate in Germany

    3. There are also
      Suicide Rates V's Internet Explorer usage
      Beer prices V's teacher salaries
      Playmate of

    4. Sorry, IPad bra infant. Playmate of the Year Vital statistics vs US economic perfomance

  2. Stat-tastic. Next for mapping nerds like me perhaps some form of map graphic with two bits of data. Number of Participants per country...total number of points generated by country.
    It was a surprise to me that I could type this due to only 30 minutes of looking at blue dots. Back to the wonder of Blue dots for me.

    1. Forget the blue dots Brendon, check out that trippy 'purple stain'.

      That, my antipodean friend, is freakin' gorgeous. It smacks of sweet, sweet anarchy. (Now, let's all sing along to Prince's 'Purple Rain'...)


      PS: BTW, the purpleness is from me entering raw numbers into the theme round entries instead of anally charting each one's scale, number, etc. Why did I do this? Well, first it was bloody faster, but more importantly, I knew it would play Old Harry with Miles' stats and make him bonkers. Mission accomplished!

    2. I shall have my revenge for I am a foe who combines extreme pettiness with a long a memory - a very potent combination, Sir.

      I will crush this puny "Purple Stain Rebel Alliance" and bring numerical order back to the universe. I find their lack of faith in the "stats" disturbing...

    3. Well done Curt. It is always fun to see those who wield objective tools snap their crayons as they realize a subjective greater beyond always awaits, no matter how far you push the boundary...

  3. Absolutely, positively the right thing to get the ship moved in the right direction and get everyone painting more. The graphs are sheer elegance. Vive le stats!

  4. Well I suppose I now have a very good reason to say "NO!" if I'm on my bike and my wife asks me to get sour cream and a few other things from the store! ;)

    1. She's probably taken out extra life insurance on you - don't fall for the sour cream trap!

  5. Excellent work Professor Reidy! I'm sure that those uninitiated into the mysteries will find the pictorial summaries of some help :)

  6. But what's most interesting (and important) is which weekday is the most productive then :)

  7. What we need is a chart comparing US federal reserve interest rates to points produced in the challenge...I'm concerned that Keynsian drivel is perhaps inflating away our achievements...

  8. Cynicism of Miles' Posts correlates to Requests for Statistical Data Represented in Graphical Form. Coincidence? You decide...