From MilesR: Week 2 Stats Round Up

Back by popular demand is the single most exciting thing EVER about the Painting Challenge* - Yes your dreams have come true - it's the bi-weekly AHPC Statistical Update - version VII -Style.

* According to Actuarial Today Magazine.

Buckle up your seat belts friends as we are about to embark on a magical mathematical thrill ride of of exponential vectors and irrational numbers.  Prepare to have your minds Blown to 5 decimal places.

But first we need to have a musical interlude to properly set the stage.  I can think of no better band to do so than the soothing sounds of Mettalica - perhaps their heartwarming rendition of "Enter the Sandman" performed with the Roots:

Well now, wasn't that nice?
"enter night, exit light..."

So onto the stats - some of you might remember this format from last year.  I'm re-using it not just because it got rave reviews from you crazy stats obsessed kids ** but more so from the fact I'm really lazy...

** perhaps the term "rave reviews" is a bit of an overstatement..

Below is a comparison of the first two weeks of AHPC VII vs VI.  There are some very interesting aspects to examine:

Compared to Last Year
KPI's:	VII	VI
Weeks Completed	2	2
Weeks Remaining	11	11
Participants w/ a Submission	47	41
Total Submissions	89	98
Total Points	7,711	6,392
Participation Rate	47%	47%
Average per Submitter	164	156
Avg per Submission	87	65
Submitter % of Target Completed	16%	16%
Projected Points
Submitters	50,122	38,352
Remaining Bouns Rounds	9,261	12,300
Non Submitters @ 50%	13,358	10,075
Projected Total Points	72,741	60,727
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	1,100	927
Cav / Art	69	34
Vehicles	20	19
15MM
Inf	179	14
Cav / Art	28	3
Vehicles	16	20
6MM
Inf	479	208
Cav / Art	11	106
Vehicles	35	97
		97
Score Distribution
28MM	84%	82%
15MM	7%	3%
6MM	4%	6%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	0%	0%
Other Scales	4%	9%
Total	100%	100%

Things that make you hmmmm:
With just two weeks in the books we amassed a total of 7,711 points vs last years 6,392.  One would expect a slightly higher point total given the number of participants has increased by 12.  What surprised me is that while the participation rate (individuals submitting at least one submission) is the same, the average size of a submission has grown from 65 points to 87 - perhaps paint bombs are becoming the norm during the holidays?

We're right on track in terms of completion percent of total target at 15%

I dusted off the old "Point-o-Projector" algorithm to estimate this years output.  After making the appropriate calculations and sacrificing the neighbor's cat to the math gods, I've come up with a projected point total of just under 73K, which would be an all time high.  Don't scoff at my numerical alchemy - the projection at this point last year ended up having an error term of only 6%, which is pretty darn good considering the limited data and the fact that I'm an idiot.

In terms of the scale of choice, 28mm retains it's dominate position accounting for 84% of the points submitted to date.

The only other statistical point of order is to point out that what was thought once to be an unbeatable record, RayR's total points of 4,940 from Challenge II, may come under attack from the blistering pace that AlexS has be putting in.  Will the hallowed Halls of Vallejohalla witness the crowning of a new painting champion?- only time will tell....

For the record, the following is a list of the top ten painting scores and cumulative painting totals over the past 6 Challenges.

Highest Individual Scores	Rank	Challenge	Name	Score
	1	II	RayR	4,940
	2	II	KentG	4,724
	3	IV	AndrewS	4,180
	4	V	DaveD	4,138
	5	III	ChrisP	4,076
	6	V	MarkO	3,854
	7	III	JamesB	3,761
	8	II	TimB	3,385
	9	VI	MilesR	3,306
	10	VI	Martin C	3,292

The Top 10
Cumulative Challenge Points (over the past 6 Challenges)
	Total
DaveD	11,593
MilesR	10,934
RayR	10,125
TamsinP	8,238
Millsy	7,730
IanW	7,119
JohnM	6,374
GregB	5,704
Curt	4,497
Burkhard	3,690
MichaelA	3,732
PerterD	2,676
Scott	2,611
PhilH	2,369
JuanM	1,690
RossM	1,681
ChristopherS	1,944
Total	92,707
% total pts.	35%

Will we have any new members in the exclusive 10,000 club?

Well that's it for the week 2 statistical update - Lets see what the next two weeks bring us.  There are unconfirmed rumors that the next stats post will have a motivational speaker portion.