Monday, 2 January 2017

From MilesR: Week 2 Stats Round Up

Back by popular demand is the single most exciting thing EVER about the Painting Challenge* - Yes your dreams have come true - it's the bi-weekly AHPC Statistical Update - version VII -Style.

* According to Actuarial Today Magazine.

Buckle up your seat belts friends as we are about to embark on a magical mathematical thrill ride of of exponential vectors and irrational numbers.  Prepare to have your minds Blown to 5 decimal places.

But first we need to have a musical interlude to properly set the stage.  I can think of no better band to do so than the soothing sounds of Mettalica - perhaps their heartwarming rendition of "Enter the Sandman" performed with the Roots:

Well now, wasn't that nice?
"enter night, exit light..."

So onto the stats - some of you might remember this format from last year.  I'm re-using it not just because it got rave reviews from you crazy stats obsessed kids ** but more so from the fact I'm really lazy...

** perhaps the term "rave reviews" is a bit of an overstatement..

Below is a comparison of the first two weeks of AHPC VII vs VI.  There are some very interesting aspects to examine:

Compared to Last Year
Weeks Completed22
Weeks Remaining1111
Participants w/ a Submission4741
Total Submissions8998
Total Points7,7116,392
Participation Rate47%47%
Average per Submitter164156
Avg per Submission8765
Submitter % of Target Completed16%16%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds9,26112,300
Non Submitters @ 50%13,35810,075
Projected Total Points72,74160,727
Figures Painted
Cav / Art6934
Cav / Art283
Cav / Art11106
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%0%
Other Scales4%9%

Things that make you hmmmm:
With just two weeks in the books we amassed a total of 7,711 points vs last years 6,392.  One would expect a slightly higher point total given the number of participants has increased by 12.  What surprised me is that while the participation rate (individuals submitting at least one submission) is the same, the average size of a submission has grown from 65 points to 87 - perhaps paint bombs are becoming the norm during the holidays?

We're right on track in terms of completion percent of total target at 15%

I dusted off the old "Point-o-Projector" algorithm to estimate this years output.  After making the appropriate calculations and sacrificing the neighbor's cat to the math gods, I've come up with a projected point total of just under 73K, which would be an all time high.  Don't scoff at my numerical alchemy - the projection at this point last year ended up having an error term of only 6%, which is pretty darn good considering the limited data and the fact that I'm an idiot.

In terms of the scale of choice, 28mm retains it's dominate position accounting for 84% of the points submitted to date.

The only other statistical point of order is to point out that what was thought once to be an unbeatable record, RayR's total points of 4,940 from Challenge II, may come under attack from the blistering pace that AlexS has be putting in.  Will the hallowed Halls of Vallejohalla witness the crowning of a new painting champion?- only time will tell....

For the record, the following is a list of the top ten painting scores and cumulative painting totals over the past 6 Challenges.

Highest Individual Scores  Rank   Challenge   Name   Score 
1  II   RayR   4,940
2  II   KentG   4,724
3  IV   AndrewS   4,180
4  V   DaveD   4,138
5  III   ChrisP   4,076
6  V   MarkO   3,854
7  III   JamesB   3,761
8  II   TimB   3,385
9  VI   MilesR   3,306
10  VI   Martin C   3,292
The Top 10
Cumulative Challenge Points (over the past 6 Challenges)
DaveD  11,593
MilesR  10,934
RayR  10,125
TamsinP  8,238
Millsy  7,730
IanW  7,119
JohnM  6,374
GregB  5,704
Curt  4,497
Burkhard  3,690
MichaelA  3,732
PerterD  2,676
Scott  2,611
PhilH  2,369
JuanM  1,690
RossM  1,681
ChristopherS  1,944
  Total  92,707
 % total pts.  35%

Will we have any new members in the exclusive 10,000 club?

Well that's it for the week 2 statistical update - Lets see what the next two weeks bring us.  There are unconfirmed rumors that the next stats post will have a motivational speaker portion.


  1. Fantastic work on the mathemagicamalarkey there Miles :)

  2. In my spreadsheet induced post orgasmic bliss I have I appear to not be on the top 10 of all time. Whilst I would be surprised that I could possibly have made this list, being a relative newbie, my score from last year would put me in top 10, along with several others - MarkO, TimB etc. I assume that all the members of the top 10 list have participated in all the 6 previous challenges. I appear to be a spreadsheet nerd also, or maybe it's because I spend my life marking spreadsheet results

  3. OH Miles you make my heart go pitter-patter. I also noted the inconsistency between lists. Should you check your lookup references? Or maybe just relabel the second list?
    God I've missed this.

  4. Crumbs I am in the top 10? that is worrying. Won't break the 10K this year though.

    great work as always on the spreadsheets


  5. I'll defo be in the 10k at the end of the Challenge....only coz I'm already in it!!!

  6. excellent... i feel the need to point out a lack of visual references.. perhaphs a pie chart... mmmmm pie...

    good to see i am top of at leat one need check all your other data for consistecy in that matter -- obviuosly an error in the calculation...

    1. Yes...Charts are definitely needed to graphically demonstrate this wizardry!

  7. This can't be right, I'm actually ranked 9th overall in points?! Wow, I guess slow and steady allows one to rub shoulders with the Heavy Hitters.

    I should get you the numbers for the first Challenge so we can base the stats off a complete set.

  8. How did I not make the top ten when my one year score from III is enough to be in. I think these are lies dam lies and statistics lol. Great work buddy

  9. While interesting the numbers on their own do not even tell half the story. No offence meant but not my thing at all.

    1. Statistically I should be offended, but you beta is high enough that I've cleared that bar. We live is digital world my friend were numbers tell us everything if we just listen hard enough. (insert maniacal cackling in the background)

  10. Oh Stats... The highlight of my week so far.

    1. I'm very sorry you highlight bar is this low - lets hope for a better week next time!

  11. Absolutely outstanding work - what on earth would painting miniatures be without the wizardry of spreadsheets to give them some meaning in this most confusing of times?

    1. It would be the equivalent of painting in caves rather than castles of mathematical purity

  12. These numbers updates always put things in perspective! And what always hits me the most, even more than the achievements of the Challenge Champions, is the shear amount of input we produce as a team! Wow, how many people can say they are part of such a great team-effort in our hobby, in such a fun way at that? This year I am in the CHallenge just for the pure fun of it not to win any points targets- prices or whatever, but these numbers really do show that in a way we're all winners right? So thanks heaps for compiling them!

  13. 5th on the overall Challenge tally? I guess just turning up does count after all! Wait til I tell my boss... :-)

  14. I shall recheck the spreadsheet links to assure the summaries are indeed accurate. Of course my standard for accuracy is whatever makes me look good.