First, a word of caution. We, we happy few, we band of paint-stained brothers and sisters, stand upon a precipice of mathemagical divination. We can choose to go forward bravely in the darkness of the statistical night or meekly cry out for my aid and hand calculators. Anyone who fears long division may freely depart, for I would not have them in my company on this day:
Maybe a little over the top? Nah, I think it's spot on. Who knew that Batman was at Agincourt?
The mathematical rituals have been performed, the appropriate sacrifices to the dark arithmetical gods have been made and the results have materialized before our eyes.
The simplest answer is Challenge VII broke all the records. No, that isn't quite right. Challenge seven treated the records like Godzilla would treat Tokyo after stepping on a giant lego piece. The terms squashed, obliterated, annihilated may be more appropriate.
Lets us examine some graphs (sigh). First up compares Challenge VII to it's previous 6 ancestors
Wow - VII's 96 painting participants and 83.2K points are both new records. VII also set record for number of submission (919), average score per Challenger (867) and many more.
Want to go into more detail on VII? Well, we're going to do it anyway.
Lets take a gander at the score distribution
|Percent of Total Points||IV||V||VI||VII|
It seems that Challenge VII has continued the recent trend of Challenges of being more socially progressive with the share of score for the top 20 participants declining steadily. Somewhere Bernie Sanders is smiling. As a staunch capitalist, I find this trend disturbing and a wake up call to re-double the nefarious efforts of my fellow "financial services professionals". We've gotten complacent since our triumph of 2008.
Lets look at even more meaningless eye candy graph.
First up is the distribution of sales we painted:
28mm was the dominate scale again this year, but 15mm staged a nice comeback. I am particularly proud that the unallocated portion of this years trend graph is much smaller than last years, where it was closer to 20%. How did we eliminate the "Purple Stain"? By bringing the snow Lord into line and getting him to enter the figure detail for the bonus rounds. Curt may have started his Challenge hosting career as a care free bon vivant but statistics bring us all to heel in the end. Prepare to be assimilated.
So what do 919 individual submission look like over 3 months of painting combat?
Very pretty, but not all that meaningful. Lets try taking that same data and aggregating by day:
Interesting - we see what is referred to by professional painting challenge commentators as the "two humped" camel - a slow start then a binge in January followed by a dip and then a mad rush at the end. That last day looks pretty hectic - there were 56 rubmissionfor 5,455 points!
Enough of this graph stuff, lets get to some data tables where the real geeking can get going.
It is my great pleasure to present to you the final KPI table of Challenge VII:
(Please note that I do grant a limited purpose non-commercial license to use the KPI table if any of you want a new tattoo to impress your friends, your welcome.)
|AHPC VII: THE STATS ROUNDUP|
|Participants w/ a Submission||47||81||96||96||96||96|
|Average per Submitter||164||270||382||509||658||867|
|Avg per Submission||87||92||88||91||88||91|
|Submitter % of Target Completed||16%||32%||48%||65%||83%||110%|
|Remaining Bouns Rounds||9,261||6,787||5,851||4,255||1,750||0|
|Non Submitters @ 25%||13,358||1,657||0||0||0||0|
|Projected Total Points||72,741||78,394||84,687||82,720||75,885||83,200|
|Cav / Art||69||155||305||425||545||719|
|Cav / Art||28||178||285||361||513||817|
|Cav / Art||11||18||108||187||195||195|
|Bonus Round "Bonus Points"||0%||11%||13%||9%||9%||12%|
So what nuggets of insight can we derive from this most impressive of data tables? First off, the collective participants of Challenge VII achieved 110% of their initial target - that hasn't happened before. We painted a lot of 28mm figures but 15 mm staged a comeback from Challenge VI as the table below points out:
|Cavalry / Guns||817||294|
As with past challenges, the "Point-O-Projector" was eerily accurate in forecasting points at the mid point of the Challenge, forecasting 84,687 points during week 6 and 82,720 at week 8 versus the final score of 83,200
Week 11's abysmal forecast of 75,885 is due to operator error as the knucklehead who runs this spreadsheet forgot to adjust to tempering equation for the shorter duration left in the Challenge.
Don't you hate it when you do that?
Economic Value Add
Ok enough of this statistical mumbo-jumbo and lets get into the real protein and tubers of the statistical roundup - economic mumbo-jumbo. What is the economic value add of this year's event?
First a word on methodology. This has been a controversial aspect of my statistical work as there are many opinions on the both the assumptions and methodology that have been voiced. Rest assured, dear stats fans, that I listen very conscientiously to each of your opinions, carefully weight the pros and cons and look deep into my soul to ensure I'm doing the right thing. I'm very proud to say that those concepts that advance whatever agenda I have are quickly adopted into the methodologies. Any other changes that accurately contradict my agenda are discarded as fake news. I think we can all agree that's the right way to approach both tracking miniature painting as well as setting public policy.
So how do we calculate Economic Value Add (or "EVA" as it's known on the streets)
(1) The total points of the completion is translated into the equivalent number of 28mm infantry figures by dividing by "5" - 83,200 points is the equivalent of 16,640 28mm infantry figures.
(2) We then calculate the cost of acquiring and painting the individual figure based on cost per mini, cost of paint and the value of the painters time. I've made some changes this year and have increased the costs for all three categories to reflect a higher cost environment. There is still some controversy of the value of a painters time but I'm worried that raising the hourly rate any higher will just force management to replace painters with robots and we wouldn't want that would we? The total cost per figure (see table below) is $13.50
(3) The sum total of the cost to create a painted and based mini is then multiplied by an economic velocity factor to reflect the fact that when we replace a painted figure in our collective lead piles we, on average, buy 4 figures for every one painted. At least I do.
So what's the EVA of Challenge VII?
|Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)|
|Equivalent 28mm Inf Minis||16,640||Economic|
|Cost per Mini||$2.50||$41,600|
|Paints & Basing Materials||$1.00||$16,640|
Just under $900K - that's big time money and a economic stimulus package in 28mm scale.
BOOM, BABY, BOOM!
Over time, the Challenge has truly become a financial juggernaut in the miniatures industry
|Equivalent 28mm figures||449||6,113||8,416||11,987||13,021||12,938||16,640||69,564|
|Economic Value Created||$14,211||$193,476||$266,360||$379,389||$500,000||$569,272||$898,560||$2,821,268|
Close the $3MM in EVA created to date. Mr Campbell, I would expect some compensation form the wargaming manufactures is due to you.
The Hall of Heroes
As with every Challenge we do take some time to recognize the lifetime to date performance of our challengers - the Legendary Painteristas. Through challenge VII there have been a total of 384 participation events, with many individuals participating multiple times.
|Rank||Name||Lieftime Points||# of Challenges|
I'm very excited to announce that we are welcoming a new member into the 10,000 club - Tamsin! Welcome Tamsin, your membership card and secret decoder ring will be sent to you shortly. Please remember to use your newly granted social status only for good, not evil.
DaveD still reigns supreme as the "Points-Progenator". It should be pointed out that MartinC is coming fast on our heels and will likely become the person to attain "10,000 Club" membership the fastest after next years Challenge.
Top ten Individual performances
In term of top ten individual performances, we saw 3 from Challenge VII crack the top ten this year. Sadly none of us came close nor are we likely to ever exceed RayR's majestic score of 4,940 points from Challenge II. That's a mark for the ages and all of us need to come to grips with the fact that the Challenge's future statue in Trafalgar Square will likely have Ray's visage starting down upon us like a Elephant Seal baking in the sun wearing a speedo.
Lastly, there's one burning question that I am sure all of you thirst for the answer to - which day of the week reigned supreme during Challenge VII?
|Minion||# Challengers||Target Pts||Actual Pts||% Target Met||% of Total Points||Pts/Challenger||Ovr/Undr Index|
Shockingly, Monday stand out as the best day of the week in just about every category, including self pro-motion. Who knew?
MONDAY - for the WIN!
Monday looks cooler in a pie chart - cooler cause it's blue.
There you have it, Stats fans. Another Challenge has come and gone but like a hot branding iron, it left a mark. As I close this overly long and pompous post, I would like to sincerely thank a few people:
Curt - for organizing this madness and proving that Tom Sawyer was a brilliant management visionary - painting this fence sure is fun....
Sarah - for putting up with Curt and not killing him due to annoyance. As we've discussed many times, thinking about doing so doesn't count.
My fellow Minioneers - Excellent job and somebody else take Monday - it's too much work. Sorry about making you wade through my silly spreadsheet of doom
Challenge VII participants - thanks for making this such a fun event. Special shout out to MatinC for pushing me as my points rival. I do wonder if he's just playing me like at an auction - just bidding up the ante to see if I'll bite and I always do. I look forward to our AWI Challenge next year.
Lets go make some terrain now.