From MilesR: Stats Update Week 7

Alright Stats fans, it's time to buckle up and get ready to receive the mother load of math-a-magical incantations.  Oh yeah baby - it's stats-time.

There are now seven weeks recorded in "the log" (ok it's a grubby spreadsheet but log sounds classier) and there are just six weeks remaining.  That's right - we just passed the statistical "Huuummppp Daayyyy!!"

I'll pause here while those of you with weak constitutions get over your "vapors" and release your pearls.....

Before we delve into this pageantry of glorious numerical beauty, there is a somber topic to deal with.  Since our last stats update, the annual culling of the herd has occurred - the sad elimination of 5 lost souls who could not find their brushes in time.  It is one of my more difficult duties to perform.  The striking of the delete key 5 times and sending those poor wretches into the oblivion of un-painted miniatures (Dantes little known but infamous 10th circle) is something I never enjoy.  The maniacal cackling some of you may have heard while the sentences were carried out is just my way of dealing with the stress.

Yet within the darkness there is also hope - we have added one to our ranks in the form of young Arthur S, who is Sanders son and likely the real genius behind Sander's work.  With Arthur joining the painting legion, we now stand at 76 strong and that is where we shall remain for the duration.

Lets take a look at the KPI's (Key Painting Indicators for those of you who are not practiced in the art of business double speak).  Through Sunday, Feb 4 there have been 420 total submissions and we've put just under 37K points on the board.  Very solid progress, indeed.  One fascinating stat is that the average size of a submission has been creeping up for 61 and now stands at 87 points per.  In past challenges this stat tended to hover in the constantly in the 88-90 range over an entire Challenge.  One wonders if we can maintain our "up and to the right trajectory for the remaining weeks?

AHPC VIII: THE STATS ROUNDUP
KPI's:
Weeks Completed	2	4	7
Weeks Remaining	11	9	6
Participants w/ a Submission	52	67	76
Total Submissions	118	238	420
Total Points	7,184	18,716	36,562
Participation Rate	65%	84%	100%
Average per Submitter	138	279	481
Avg per Submission	61	79	87
Submitter % of Target Completed	15%	41%	59%
Projected Points
Submitters	46,696	60,827	67,901
Remaining Bouns Rounds	7,500	9,000	3,500
Non Submitters (Discounted)	6,769	1,090	0
Projected Total Points	60,965	70,917	71,401
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	882	1,891	3,277
Cav / Art	47	128	300
Vehicles	20	51	95
15MM
Inf	110	404	1,160
Cav / Art	16	25	184
Vehicles	16	70	143
6MM
Inf	834	1,483	1,781
Cav / Art	22	52	56
Vehicles	70	187	316
Score Distribution
28MM	72%	61%	57%
15MM	5%	7%	11%
6MM	8%	6%	4%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	0%	12%	16%
Terrain	3%	4%	3%
Other Scales	15%	10%	8%
Total	100%	100%	100%

So what does the Point-O-Projector (copyright @UberGeek) say about the future?  After several attempts to invoke the dark gods of math-a-magics, a result was revealed to me through the mist.  That projection is 71K - which is suspiciously close to last updates 71K.  The forecast takes into account we've got 3 of the 5 bonus rounds in the books and there is no longer any chance for points from non-submitters as they have been, ummm, "erased" from the picture, so to speak.

My gut still tells me we'll clock in at the 75-76K mark when all the dust settles.  Remember, you heard it here first.

28mm remains the scale of choice, but 15's have staged a bit of a comeback.  The new terrain category has held steady at 3-4% of total points.  On the topic of 15's, your intrepid stats reporter may have something up his sleeve, I wonder what it could be?  No Ray, it's not a rash.

I always like to look at the bonus round participation and it's shown the traditional mid challenge dip:

Bonus Round           Submissions         Total Points
Flight                        45                         3,602
BFG                          41                         3,499
Music                        34                         2,417

By the way, The Point-O-Projector (patent pending) assumes 35 participants for both rounds 4 & 5.  Don't let me down.

Calc on Dudes and Dudettes