Stas Update: Week XI, The Dash to Greatness

As we embark on the final two week sprint to the Challenge's end, let take a few moments to contemplate the path that lead us here.  As there is no greater tool for contemplation than statistics, I have provided our beloved KPI summary out of the kindness of my heart.

You're welcome.

Of course, when I refer to "kindness off my heart", I'm really referring to the soul devouring dark arts of the Mathamagician and the required animal sacrifices and other less-than-reputable acts needed to distill the essence of miniature painting art into numbers with up to three decimal places.  Some of you fools have begged that we go to four decimal places but not even I would risk such blasphemy.

Without further ado, lets us gaze upon then wonder that is our KPI Table and revel in our progress through 11 weeks:

AHPC VII: THE STATS ROUNDUP
KPI's:
Weeks Completed	2	4	6	8	11	13
Weeks Remaining	11	9	7	5	2	0
Participants w/ a Submission	47	81	96	96	96
Total Submissions	89	239	417	540	715
Total Points	7,711	21,906	36,632	48,905	63,127
Participation Rate	47%	81%	100%	100%	100%
Average per Submitter	164	270	382	509	658
Avg per Submission	87	92	88	91	88
Submitter % of Target Completed	16%	32%	48%	65%	83%
Projected Points
Submitters	50,122	69,950	78,836	78,465	74,135
Remaining Bouns Rounds	9,261	6,787	5,851	4,255	1,750
Non Submitters @ 25%	13,358	1,657	0	0	0
Projected Total Points	72,741	78,394	84,687	82,720	75,885
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	1,100	2,339	3,788	4,801	6,168
Cav / Art	69	155	305	425	545
Vehicles	20	55	75	95	138
15MM
Inf	179	697	1,389	1,806	2,706
Cav / Art	28	178	285	361	513
Vehicles	16	63	132	167	319
6MM
Inf	479	1,051	1,223	1,464	2,040
Cav / Art	11	18	108	187	195
Vehicles	35	214	322	354	471
Score Distribution
28MM	84%	64%	60%	61%	61%
15MM	7%	11%	6%	12%	12%
6MM	4%	4%	4%	3%	3%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	0%	11%	13%	9%	9%
Other Scales	4%	9%	17%	15%	15%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Impressive isn't it?

There have been 715 submissions from 96 stalwart participants through 11 weeks of grueling painting trials.  The average submission in hovering around 88-90 points and has been remarkably consistent over the course of Challenge VII.

Total points to date stand at 63,127, and are a just a tiny bit below the final score from last year's challenge of 64,690 with two weeks to go.

We've been steadily inching up in terms of % of the cumulative targets met and now stand at 83%, although there have been rumors that this stat has been artificially inflated by scoundrels who have set their initial targets to low.  I don't know who these statistical miscreants are but surely justice shall be done to them sometime.

What does the "Point-O-Projector" say will be the final score?  Lets find out, please pass me the kittens to lubricate the gears and then turn that crank over there.  Feel free to help me with the incantations and out pops a projected total score of 76K points.  That's a new world record.  Pretty darn inspiring.  Of course that means we need to point 13K of points over the next two weeks so lets get cracking - paint, you beautiful bastards, PAINT!  I would be very sad if you failed to meet the expectations of the Point-O-Projector.

A comparison to last year at week 11 confirms we're on course for an earth shattering result.  I'm sure there will be lots of international media coverage and lucrative movie and book contracts for most of us.  Those of you without professional representation should really consider engaging some now.

KPI's:	VII	VI
Weeks Completed	11	11
Weeks Remaining	2	2
Participants w/ a Submission	96	70
Total Submissions	715	590
Total Points	63,127	51,599
Participation Rate	100%	80%
Average per Submitter	658	716
Avg per Submission	88	100
Submitter % of Target Completed	83%	82%
Projected Points
Submitters	74,135	60,872
Remaining Bouns Rounds	1,750	2,500
Non Submitters @ 50%	0	302
Projected Total Points	75,885	63,613
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	6,168	4,319
Cav / Art	545	471
Vehicles	138	82
15MM
Inf	2,706	1,293
Cav / Art	513	230
Vehicles	319	143
6MM
Inf	2,040	2,124
Cav / Art	195	362
Vehicles	471	205
Score Distribution
28MM	61%	53%
15MM	12%	8%
6MM	3%	4%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	9%	10%
Other Scales	15%	24%
Total	100%	100%

I know these stats are wonderful depictions and all of you think of them as beloved family members for the joy they bring to your drab existences, but there's one burning question that I haven't answered. One that all of you hunger to have the knowledge of.  The question? - which day of the week/minion group is the best, of course.  First, I'd like to say that it's difficult to pick a single winner as every day of the week/minion group is special and you all are winners in my view.  In fact there are participation trophies....  Ah screw that crap, lets get to the numbers and see who wins.

I adjusted the summary tables to sum on Minion/Day of the week and was surprised by the results - mathematical science has proven that Monday, indeed, RULES!!!!  How do I know this?  Prepare to be amazed:

Minion	# Challengers	Target Pts	Actual Pts	% Target Met	% of Total Points	Pts/Challenger	Ovr/Undr Index
MilesR	16	17,950	17,603	98.06%	27.81%	1,100.16	1.67
Curt	14	14,250	11,980	84.07%	18.92%	855.71	1.30
PhilH/SylvainR	17	13,450	11,103	82.55%	17.54%	653.12	0.99
AlanD/PaulOG	16	8,900	9,039	101.56%	14.28%	564.94	0.86
ByronM	17	10,450	7,142	68.34%	11.28%	420.09	0.64
DavidB	15	9,950	5,881	59.11%	9.29%	392.07	0.59
Any Day	1	1,000	557	55.70%	0.88%	557.00	0.84
Grand Total	96	75,950	63,304	83.35%	100.00%	659.42	1.00

It seems that the Monday group started with a bit of an advantage as it had, by far, the highest target set of points (somewhere I hear a Snow Lord chuckling), so looking at total points would be unfair and Monday towers over the other days of the week.  We could look at % of target completed and see that shockingly Monday comes in second to another day of the week.  Further analysis points out the rather low target from that group so this result must be tossed as it detracts from the Monday Rocks messaging.

What to do - Ahh the over/under index which compares the actual points per painter from each group vs the average of the entire challenge - any score over 1.00 indicates your ahead of the pack.  What does the math show - Monday crushes the competition with an index score of 1.67!  It just can't be any clearer Monday's Awesomeness is record shattering.  Legally, I'm pretty sure this performance means the other days of the week owe the Monday crew some form of tribute.

Some of the more sharp eyed of you may have noticed the total points in that last table are slightly higher than the others.  That's because there were a few more Monday entries that were entered before I pulled in the the last table and I was just too lazy to update the rest.

Well there you have it, week 11 is in the books and we've got 2 weeks left to paint 13K points.  Why the hell are you still reading this drivel?  You've got mini's to paint.  DO NOT DISAPPOINT THE PAINTING GODS!!!!!!!