Wednesday 23 January 2019

Stats Update: Through Four Weeks, Let's Take a Peek

That's right stats fans, it's time for a statistical update on Challenge IX.  Well, technically, it's past time as we used to do these every two weeks.  I've decided to do these updates on a monthly rather than bi-weekly basis.  Why? - after extensive research and several secret conclaves with medical experts, it Has been determined that this group just didn't have the constitution to bear bi-weekly stats updates and the only merciful thing to do was reduce them to monthly.  There were just too many cases of fainting, vapors and even (shudder) pearl clutching that continuing with bi-weekly reporting would be irresponsible and potentially deemed a stats-crime against humanity.

Frankly, YOU JUST CAN'T HANDLE THE STATS.

I know you all are terrible disappointed but this course of action is for your own good.  You can trust me, I'm a financial services professional.

This update covers the first four weeks of the challenge and includes the results of the Recon and Sports bonus rounds, both of which saw record participation levels.

So without further ado, here's the stats snapshot table:

AHPC IX: Stats Summary
Weeks:

4
Total Points 25,425
% of Target33%
# of Submissions
325
Participation Rate
92%
Avg Pts per Submitter
322
Avg Pts per Submission
78
Projected Points79,428
Proj % of Target
103%
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf1991.5
Cav / Art225.5
Vehicles43
15MM
Inf1355
Cav / Art160.5
Vehicles181
6MM
Inf618
Cav / Art23
Vehicles149
Terrain "Cubes"45
Points Distriution
28mm51%
15mm19%
6mm2%
Terrain4%
Bonus Round "bonus" Pts
18%
Other6%
Total100%

The above chart is stunning in all it's tabular glory.  The pure beauty of the numerals isn't marred by the inclusion of tawdry charts and other low-brow graphics to try and make the numerical truths comprehensible to the mathematical luddites of the world.  Lets us not stoop to the level of Trump-like simplicity and obfuscation - you are all better than that.

Simply put, we are off to a grand start and on on-pace to hit close to 80,000 points this year.  I think breaking Challenge VII's points record of 83,200 is very doable.  To be honest, after  peeking at the first few submission of week 5, the term "doable" could be changed to "likely"!

Equally encouraging is the record setting level of participation from the participants with 79 out of our band of 86 making at least one submission and an eye-popping level of participation in the first 2 bonus rounds.  89 entries were submitted on the first two bonus rounds.  We typically average around 25-30 per round.

Very impressive work indeed.

Now we need to have a moment of silence for the 7 lost souls who have yet to submit a single entry.  Thet shall not be named publicly as the shame may be unbearable.  Let us all pray that the Vallejo gods bring these reprobates back to their painting workbenches so that they can rejoin the community of Challengeanistas.  Can I get an Amen for that!

So how does Challenge IX compare to last year?  Pretty damn good but with one huge change in trend.....

Comparison to Challenge VIII, through week 4
IXVIII+/- Var
Total Points25,42518,7166,709
Projected Points79,42870,9178,511
Participants86806
Particiation Rate92%84%8%
Submissions32527946
Avg Points per Submisison
7879-1
Score Distribitiuon
28mm51%61%-10%
15mm19%7%12%
6mm2%6%-4%
Terrain4%4%0%
Bonus Round "bonus" Pts
18%12%6%
Other6%10%-4%
Total100%100%0%

There is a huge upswing in the amount of 15mm figures being painted - more than double what was being painted last year!  Also the increased level of bonus round participation has lead to a significant uptick in bonus round points.

But does 15mm's gain come at the loss for the 28mm world?

Figures Painted through Week 4IXVIII+/- Var
28MM
Inf1991.51,891101
Cav / Art225.512898
Vehicles4351-8
15MM
Inf1355404951
Cav / Art160.525136
Vehicles18170111
6MM
Inf6181,483-865
Cav / Art2352-29
Vehicles149187-38
Terrain "Cubes"4533.7511.25

Not really - the actual number of 28mm figures painted is roughly ahead of last year, but the 15mm world is 3x last year.  It seems that 15mm is now the "cool" scale, especially for those fashion forward gamers focusing on 15mm Napoleonics.  Truly, there is no more majestic site than the visage of a 15mm Napoleonic gamer prowling along side a gaming table, dice in hand.  Throw in some 15mm Napoleonic Naval miniatures and you've got someone who takes your breath away....

Ummm, lets get back to the stats.  6mm also saw a significant reduction in figures painted - I blame Lee - he needs to add another ancient army project to get these figures up to snuff.  Come on Lee - the 6mm world is counting on you!

I'll be back with another stats update after week 8.  Maybe, if you're nice, I'll throw in a graph or chart with pretty colors for those of you who struggle with the stunning clarity of the tables.

Maybe....

23 comments:

  1. Thanks for the roundup, Miles - 15mm seems to be the preferred scale for armour these days, and the 'What A Tanker!' contest might be pushing the numbers up. Any correlation, do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. #notatanker

      15mm has been deemed verboten for the ‘What a tanker!’ challenge, Ev.

      Delete
    2. So much for that theory - I should pay more attention!

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  2. I think Mr Trumps decided that since he’s doing 15s, they must be the cool scale. I thought they were cool 30 years ago,....when my eyes were younger

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude, everything old is new again. Your soooo 2010's!

      Delete
  3. awesome. I have a feeling that the 15mm raise is mainly me and you, although I would maintain that painting 15mm Napoleonics is still technically impossible and you are painting 28mm figs and photograhing them from far away

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'd be more convinced of the beauty of your tabular data if you were consistent in your use of alignment and commas for thousands separators...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My artistic experessions can not be confined by your fascist rules of presentation and grammar.

      Free the Comma!
      Free the Comma!

      Delete
    2. Unsurprisingly I do have a BA in Linguistics and am often referred to as a Grammar Nazi. Say what you like, without us few die hard defenders of the right and proper use of language the world would soon descend into a chaos of hashtags, lazy one-letter substitutions and other evils too terrifying to name. Think about that for a minute. #justsayin

      Delete
    3. Your defense of the English language is as admirable in its gallantry as it is ineffective in its application.
      #lostcauses

      Delete
  5. Gosh, bewildering as usual Mr. Reidy. I think my poor noodle needs a nice Gantt Chart to set it all straight (or is it Gnat Chart?) Whatever, as long as we're kicking @ss I'm happy. Carry on Miles!

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  6. I'll have to mine the lead mountain for more 6mm stuff to paint...

    ReplyDelete
  7. How about the camels? How are they doing? How they relate to this 15mm madness?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe that only one camel has contributed to the 15mm data so far, and that was yesterday so is unlikely to be the cause of this "madness" as you describe it ;)

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    2. So the non-existence of 28mm camels is the root cause, right? :)

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    3. There has been a 28mm camel .. but just the one! More on the way

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  8. This is pure heresy. How is it possible having so many devoted to the 15mm scale when we all know that 28mm is GOD'S OWN SCALE?? I might have to call the Spanish Inquisition to straight up this deviation

    ReplyDelete
  9. So do you force the kittens to wear bowties and glasses before you sacrifice them? Now that is cruel!
    Best Iain

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Surprisingly, kitten sacrificing becomes mundane and somewhat boring rather quickly. One needs to find ways to spice things up!

      Delete
  10. I was waiting for this 👍 Can't beat a bit of statistical madness

    ReplyDelete