Monday, 5 February 2018

From MilesR: Stats Update Week 7

Alright Stats fans, it's time to buckle up and get ready to receive the mother load of math-a-magical incantations.  Oh yeah baby - it's stats-time.

There are now seven weeks recorded in "the log" (ok it's a grubby spreadsheet but log sounds classier) and there are just six weeks remaining.  That's right - we just passed the statistical "Huuummppp Daayyyy!!"

I'll pause here while those of you with weak constitutions get over your "vapors" and release your pearls.....

Before we delve into this pageantry of glorious numerical beauty, there is a somber topic to deal with.  Since our last stats update, the annual culling of the herd has occurred - the sad elimination of 5 lost souls who could not find their brushes in time.  It is one of my more difficult duties to perform.  The striking of the delete key 5 times and sending those poor wretches into the oblivion of un-painted miniatures (Dantes little known but infamous 10th circle) is something I never enjoy.  The maniacal cackling some of you may have heard while the sentences were carried out is just my way of dealing with the stress.

Yet within the darkness there is also hope - we have added one to our ranks in the form of young Arthur S, who is Sanders son and likely the real genius behind Sander's work.  With Arthur joining the painting legion, we now stand at 76 strong and that is where we shall remain for the duration.

Lets take a look at the KPI's (Key Painting Indicators for those of you who are not practiced in the art of business double speak).  Through Sunday, Feb 4 there have been 420 total submissions and we've put just under 37K points on the board.  Very solid progress, indeed.  One fascinating stat is that the average size of a submission has been creeping up for 61 and now stands at 87 points per.  In past challenges this stat tended to hover in the constantly in the 88-90 range over an entire Challenge.  One wonders if we can maintain our "up and to the right trajectory for the remaining weeks?

Weeks Completed247
Weeks Remaining1196
Participants w/ a Submission526776
Total Submissions118238420
Total Points7,18418,71636,562
Participation Rate65%84%100%
Average per Submitter
Avg per Submission
Submitter % of Target Completed15%41%59%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds7,5009,0003,500
Non Submitters (Discounted)6,7691,0900
Projected Total Points60,96570,91771,401
Figures Painted
Cav / Art47128300
Cav / Art1625184
Cav / Art225256
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%12%16%
Other Scales15%10%8%

So what does the Point-O-Projector (copyright @UberGeek) say about the future?  After several attempts to invoke the dark gods of math-a-magics, a result was revealed to me through the mist.  That projection is 71K - which is suspiciously close to last updates 71K.  The forecast takes into account we've got 3 of the 5 bonus rounds in the books and there is no longer any chance for points from non-submitters as they have been, ummm, "erased" from the picture, so to speak.

My gut still tells me we'll clock in at the 75-76K mark when all the dust settles.  Remember, you heard it here first.

28mm remains the scale of choice, but 15's have staged a bit of a comeback.  The new terrain category has held steady at 3-4% of total points.  On the topic of 15's, your intrepid stats reporter may have something up his sleeve, I wonder what it could be?  No Ray, it's not a rash.

I always like to look at the bonus round participation and it's shown the traditional mid challenge dip:

Bonus Round           Submissions         Total Points
Flight                        45                         3,602
BFG                          41                         3,499
Music                        34                         2,417

By the way, The Point-O-Projector (patent pending) assumes 35 participants for both rounds 4 & 5.  Don't let me down.

Calc on Dudes and Dudettes

From SamuliS: Achtung Minen! (1 point)

There's no hope that I'll ever be able to deliver anything close to the points bombs from some of the fellas here, so I'm going to aim for the smallest submission of the challenge!

Last week and especially weekend was really busy with my gaming club organizing the biggest wargaming tournament in Finland and I had the honour (or forced duty) to organize the Flames of War side of it. 5 games over the weekend and helping with all the logistics etc. more or less took most my painting time away so not much to show here from last weeks efforts. It wasn't all a wasted time though as I (somewhat embarrassingly as the organizer) took the victory in the FoW tournament and the Tankovy Battalion I painted last autumn snatched the best painted army of the whole tournament chosen from about 150 players throughout all the game systems.

But onto my grand entry! Two minefield for Flames of War. Version 4 of the ruleset gives the defender two free minefield for every 750 points in defensive battles. I never use Pioneers so previously I didn't need any, but now with the minefield coming through scenario rules I figured it's high time I make some to if I happen to need them in the tournament. Just basic MDF bases from Warbases that I'd bought at Salute a while back. The paving was made with Super Sculpey and the Green Stuff Worlds superb roller tool that I got as a christmas present from the missus. The rest is just basic basing pumice, stones and flock.

2 minefields measuring 8" x 2" x ~5mm (with metric being the proper civilized measurement instead of all this Imperial rubbish) amounts to some fractions of a point that probably rounds up to around the grand total of 1 point! And sorry Sidney for the admin work imposed upon you by this tiny entry, but I just had to do it ;)

I love this submission so much, Samuli !  There is a great pleasure in seeing things in the Challenge which we perhaps never expected.  And this is really a very unexpected minefield - without signs of any sort!  I have to say, I'm the hapless useless kind of player who, half way through a game, and in the throes of excitement, drives his armored column over the innocuous bases so carefully arranged by his opponent, then remembers its actually a minefield.  Cunning, Samuli, very cunning!

I love the way you've done the paving, in the lovely continental brickwork.  Well done for letting us know that the roller method works!  And the basing is really wonderful, even without troops positioned on it.  

As for points, I really do hate to award a single, lonely point for all your work (which is super terrain making).  However, I'd also feel mean, depriving you of the smallest (points wise) submission in Challenge VIII, and the much-beloved award of the 'Order of the Single Point' which accompanies such a submission.  

So, as I always try and remain fair to all Monday Challengers, I hereby award you one single point for this very fine entry, safe in the knowledge that it shall certainly not be your last points haul in this Challenge.  Well done!

From BenitoM: 2nd Battalion Vienna Volunteers Progress (20 points)

Following on my Austrian Napoleonic Army project, I did conclude this week the second company for the 2nd Battalion of the Viennese Volunteers, comprising four models.

This is how the battalion looks so far ... 

It's not a large submission, but you should consider that I spent additional time completing some models for the Music Bonus Round too.

The models are Victrix from the Austrian Line Infantry plastic box with spare heads from the Perry box. This makes 4 x 28mm models = 20 points to add this week to my Challenge score and also to the Black Powder Duel.

Hope you all have a great week!


Great work, Benito!  You have most definitely been the "Viennese Drillmaster", delivering wonderful Austrian figures week after week to brighten our Mondays and all with the precision and style of the Spanish Riding School of Vienna.  Wonderful work, and hugely impressive week in, week out!

And these latest recruits to the second battalion of the Vienna Volunteers are well up to your very high standards.  Beautiful clean painting, vivid uniform details and wonderfully coloured bases (now copied shamelessly by myself!).  They look great, and all the more impressive for following hard on the boot heels of your lovely Musicians from the themed round.

Top work, and another very well-deserved 20 points to add to your points total!  

From AlanD - Crusaders (no, not those Crusaders) (69 points)

We have a great project going in our gaming group at the moment to do up some armies for Battle Group Tobruk in 15mm. I have the Brits, and these are the first painted models I have to show for it.

I remember as a little chap poring over the Airfix catalogue and loving the appearance of the Crusader tank. I never made a model of one before, but now I have made nine. These are all Flames of War models, painted to represent Crusader IIs from the 3rd County of London Yeomanry during Operation Crusader.

I had some fun with the crew figures, and I am particularly pleased with the infantry officer up consulting with the commander on one of the vehicles.

Five of the models are the new Flames of War plastic kits, and four the old resin and metal ones. The plastic ones are really great, showing up the shortcomings of the resin kits, particularly in the dimensions of the turret. (The plastic kit is the one on the left, below).

I'm really looking forward to getting these on the table!

That should be 54 points for the nine tanks, and maybe another 6 for the crew? Whatever our friendly minion decides.


What a fine submission, Alan!  The Crusader really was a wonderful looking tank.  These something about those angular lines on the turret and the long sleek profile.  Maybe its also because we only think of them, in our mind's eye, as rolling over endless horizons of desert sand and dust.  Like you, that Airfix Catalogue of many years gone-by had a strong hold on my imagination as a young boy!

You've done wonders with both the fine Battlefront kit and also the older resin ones.  Both will look brilliant on the tabletop.  I love the crew commanders, poking up and scanning the horizon, and the infantry officer hopping on the tank to shout instructions is just wonderful.

Definitely 54 points for the tanks, half-points for each tank commander and crewman (legs hidden), and full points for the infantry officer.  So I make that 54 points and 15 points, for a grand total of 69 points.  Great work, Sir!

From ValeryN - Tank destroyers (168 Pts)

Today's portion of my painted miniatures will be fully devoted to the means of fighting tanks. They are here for all tastes:

These are soldiers with anti-tank rifles...

...sappers with "Molotov cocktails"...

...and the soldiers with captured by the Germans fausts:

And of course I could not do without armored vehicles - self-propelled guns SU-122:

Here 72 soldiers - 144 points and 4 vehicles - 24 points. Total 168 points.


Wow... another fantastic and ferocious haul of Soviet weaponry from you, Narval !  Another tremendous entry.  These troops will strike terror into the hearts of any panzer crewman, I'd be sure!  I love the massed anti-tank rifles, and the captured panzerfausts.  Given as the German handheld 'schrecks' and 'fausts' seem to cause havoc on every WWII table I ever play on, it's only fair that you give your Soviet forces some captured ones to turn the tables!

Terrific work, and particularly so since you reached your target of 1,000 points without us properly celebrating!!  1,000 points is an incredible achievement for any painter in a Challenge, and to do this in the time you have done it (before week seven) is really spectacular.  So congratulations, Narval.  Keep those brushes painting away and we'll see if you make it to the big 2,000 by the end of the Challenge!  Here's another 168 well-deserved points towards that total! Well done, Challenge-buddy !!


HELLLLLOOOOO CHALLENGERS, and welcome to the SEVENTH Monday for Challenge VIII !  Yes, that's a mighty, magnificent, marvellous SEVEN this morning as we enter deep into the heart of this wonderful painting challenge.

I very much hope you've all had a terrific weekend.  And I also hope that you've all had the chance to look through the wonderful third theme round entries for the 'Musician' round which posted towards the end of yesterday.  Every one a winner, I think, and some really fun, imaginative and wonderful entries there.

But with another theme round ending, we're back to the excitement of the Challenge and the painted wonders that our worthy Challengers are creating.  

We've some terrific starting entries out of the blocks this morning, with some fantastic armoured entries and some beautiful Napoleonics.  And, the Monday crowd being the wonderful people that they are, I have a sneaking suspicion there will be more to come.  

So, stay tuned beloved Challengers, honoured guests, and welcome readers as we embark on WEEK SEVEN......WOOOHOOOOOOO !!!