It's that time of year - you know the one all of you typically approach with dread and horror as I force you to relive the nightmares of your high school algebra classes. Yes, that's right, it's time for the AHPC Statistical review. Prepare yourselves as the sword of Mathamagical Wisdom is about to smite your statistical ignorance - whether you want it to or not.
As you each prepare your minds to be blown, a few caveats and administrative points need to be discussed. First, I must apologize for not being able to have provided statistical updates during the challenge. Both the professional and personal world conspired to distract me me a good deal over the course of this pigmenting campaign. Secondly, there is a concern that those of you not accustomed to and appreciative of mathamagical matters may be overwhelmed by the sheer beauty of a wall of numbers. I do weep for you if you afflicted with such a condition and strongly urge you to have both smelling salts and medical support close by in case you are overcome by an onset of numerical vapors. The author of this post assumes no liability for any arithmetically induced injuries. Lastly, if you do find yourself going a bit wobbly as you peruse this treatise just repeat the following phrase:
It is by will alone I set my brush in motion
It is by the pigments of vallejo that my brush acquire speed,
the mini acquires paint and my score acquires points
It is by will alone I set my brush in motion
I doubt it will help, but it will make me chuckle thinking of you chanting that drivel. Anyway, on with the statistical review. Challenge XII broke several records, along with breaking blogger. The two obvious ones are that XII had both the largest number of participants (97) and the highest ever point total achieved - which was 86,646 points. Those of you who are paying attention might notice this tally is slightly different from the results reported by the Snow Lord himself in his final caffeine fueled submission, which was 86,634 points. As I was preparing the update i did find a few mistakes and have cleaned up some submission scoring. Please remember our cast of fabulous minions are all volunteers and, well, one does get what one pays for.....
Anyway, lets see how XII compares with the more recent challenges:
| AHPC XI Stats Summary: | | | |
| | | |
| XII | XI | X |
| Total Points | 86,646 | 82,619 | 68,878 |
| % of Target | 101.35% | 121.68% | 109.00% |
| Participants | 97 | 84 | 68 |
| | | |
| # of Submissions | 885 | 1,261 | 956 |
| #Planets/Chamber/Island Spots | 626 | 518 | 437 |
| | | |
| Avg Subs per Participant | 9 | 15 | 14 |
| Avg Pts per Submitter | 893 | 984 | 1013 |
| Avg Pts per Submission | 98 | 66 | 72 |
| | | |
| Total Points per Week | 6,665 | 6,355 | 5,298 |
| | | |
| Figures Painted | | | |
| 28MM | | | |
| Inf | 7,337 | 6,765 | 4,785 |
| Cav / Art | 609 | 798 | 454 |
| Vehicles | 215 | 97 | 122 |
| | | |
| 15MM | | | |
| Inf | 2,835 | 2,519 | 2,083 |
| Cav / Art | 423 | 527 | 588 |
| Vehicles | 162 | 196 | 144 |
| | | |
| 6MM | | | |
| Inf | 1,100 | 2,519 | 2,496 |
| Cav / Art | 192 | 695 | 471 |
| Vehicles | 248 | 30 | 235 |
| | | |
| Terrain "Cubes" | 178 | 125 | 191 |
| | | |
| Points Distriution | | | |
| 28mm | 54.31% | 52.95% | 44.85% |
| 15mm | 9.99% | 10.55% | 11.14% |
| 6mm | 1.43% | 2.44% | 3.18% |
| Terrain | 4.10% | 3.03% | 5.54% |
| Chamber / Island Bonus Pts | 15.72% | 22.94% | 25.12% |
| Other Scales | 14.45% | 8.10% | 10.18% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
Is there nothing more spectacular in the world that a dense chart of numbers? I think not. One thing that was a material change from previous Challenges is the absolute number of submissions declined form 1,261 in XI to 885 in XII, with corresponding drops in average submissions per participant from 15 to 9. That really doesn't represent a decline in enthusiasm as the average points per submission went up from 66 to 98, but its an interesting pattern change from a population really not known for liking change all that much. Perhaps we decided to take it easy on our long suffering minions.
One thing that didn't change is the popularity of "Themed" submissions with 626 planets being visited (and in some cases re-visited). I think that "theme" concept has found a permanent home in the challenge mantra. However, let us all hope that Curt raises his standards on what can be submitted to meet a themes requirement. None of us want to she a repeat of the unspeakable event of some idiot submitting a poorly painted 10mm figure of Alp Arslan as a "Super Hero" for planet Krypton. Scandalous, just scandalous.
In terms of what was painted, well 28mm still reigns supreme, accounting for 54% of the total scoring. The wee scale of 6mm saw a marked decline continue. We also saw large increases in the bigger scales of 40 and 54MM. Still, 28mm remains the mainstay of both the hobby and the Challenge.
As stated earlier, XII achieved a record score of 86,646 points which was pretty much spot on the collective target we all set at the beginning of the painting adventure.
So how does XII fit within the pantheon of all the Challenges. For this section I must be your forgiveness as I will need to resort to the use of vulgar chart with their garish colors and lack of decimal places. Please forgive me
Challenge VII through XII have been remarkable consistent in terms of total points - hovering between 75 - 86K
Productivity, as measured by average points per participant also is remarkably stead in the 900 average range. However we have seen a slight reduction over the last three years which I think is due to the introduction of the "themed" journeys as they require a little bit more thought and effort to prepare for. That's not a bad thing at all but we can see them impact in painting behaviors.
Economic Value Add
This section tends to be the most popular but does require a little explanation. As an enterprise, the AHPC does represent a form of economic stimulus for the hobby as we purchase miniatures along with the supplies to paint and base them. Moreover we will also likely replace those resources consumed in this enterprise with new ones. Professionally, I live in a world of unit economic analysis and, as a financial services professional, you know you can trust me - when have we ever let you down?
The process used to calculate the Economic Value Add of the Challenge involves the determining the three pillars of miniature valuation:
Pillar 1: 28mm Equivalent Figures
Convert the total points into equivalent 28mm infantry figures. This one is pretty easy divide the total score by 5 points per figure: 86,646 divided by 5 equals 17,329 figure equivalents
Pillar 2: Cost per Figure
Estimate the unit cost of painting a figure. This step is a bit more complicated and breaks down the total cost of a figure into three components. I did factor in a standard inflation rate of 7%, which is a real inflation rate (removing the cost of energy which have been impacted by that criminal activities of a certain Mr Putin)
Figure Cost:
The cost the figure itself which includes postage, taxes and such. The figure costs have have been increase this year from $3.00 to $3.21
Consumables:
Paints, glues, basing materials, Xacto blades and other items that are consumed in making the figure. Bear in mind its not just the cost of the paint on the figure - your paint wastage on your palette has been factored in. Please note medical costs from xacto blade mishaps are factored into labor costs below. Consumables are estimated at $2.94 a figure
Labor:
Painting a miniature takes time, your time in fact and time IS money so we need to factor in a Labor cost. This has always been a hotly debated component as different people paint at different speeds and quality varies and some of you have rather high opinions of your own value - yeah, yeah, yeah - blah, blah, blah. By the way that hourly rate is $13.64, congrats on almost earning as mush as a Star Bucks Barrista
Pillar 3: Economic Velocity
It just takes one glance at out respective lead mountains to realize we purchase more than we paint. In fact theres an economic term for that called velocity - after many year of costly research and field experimentation, scientist have determined that for every figure painted, 5 are purchased, hence a base velocity of 5. This value has been adjusted upward to 5.25 to reflect stress buying induced during the pandemic and the current global instability. When in doubt, buy lead
The formula for total EVA is just to simply multiply the three pillars together - easy, peasy right?
Without further ado - I present to you the EVA calculation for Challenge XII - drum roll please.....
| | | | |
| | | | |
| Total Points | | 86,646 | | |
| | 17,329 | | |
| | | Previous | |
| | Economic | Challenge | |
| | Value Add | (AHPC X1) | |
| Cost per Mini | $3.21 | $55,627 | $3.00 | |
| Paints etc | $2.94 | $50,991 | $2.75 | |
| Painting TIme | $13.64 | $236,414 | $12.75 | |
| Sub Total | $19.80 | $343,032 | $18.50 | |
| | | | |
| Velocity | 5.25 | $1,800,915 | 5.25 | |
That's right this little ole challenge is an economic juggernaut and has created $1.8MM in Economic Value to the Historical Wargaming industry. I must speak with Curt about negotiating better gain share agreements.
In terms of cumulative AVE - we just crossed $12MM. Remember you can trust these numbers, I am a financial services professional. I'm pretty sure $12mm exceeds the GDP of Russia right now.
Halls of Vallejohalla
The final part of this whimsical mathematical journey is a tour of the Halls of Vallejohalla, where we can all marvel at the painting prowess of our fellow challengeanistas. I do realize the terms "whimsical" and "mathematical" are redundant.
Top 25 Individual Scores
Challenge XII saw 3 members added to the "Scroll of 25" - the 25 highest individual scores in a challenge. Here is the new Scroll of Honor:
| Rank | Challenge | Challenger | Points |
| 1 | 9 | NoelW | 6,268 |
| 2 | 12 | ChrisW | 6,072 |
| 3 | 8 | KentG | 5,343 |
| 4 | 9 | MilesR | 5,051 |
| 5 | 10 | NoelW | 5,011 |
| 6 | 2 | RayR | 4,940 |
| 7 | 8 | NoelW | 4,880 |
| 8 | 2 | KentG | 4,724 |
| 9 | 12 | MikeW | 4,601 |
| 10 | 8 | MilesR | 4,550 |
| 11 | 9 | MartinC | 4,470 |
| 12 | 4 | AndrewS | 4,180 |
| 13 | 5 | DaveD | 4,138 |
| 14 | 7 | MilesR | 4,125 |
| 15 | 3 | ChrisP | 4,076 |
| 16 | 7 | MartinC | 4,051 |
| 17 | 8 | ByronM | 3,881 |
| 18 | 5 | MarkO | 3,854 |
| 10 | 8 | MartinC | 3,844 |
| 20 | 12 | MartinC | 3,813 |
| 21 | 10 | MartinC | 3,789 |
| 22 | 3 | JamesB | 3,761 |
| 23 | 11 | MartinC | 3,643 |
| 24 | 11 | MilesR | 3,643 |
| 25 | 11 | NoelW | 3,643 |
I think we all need to tip our hat to ChrisW for his astonishing score of 6,072 - that's just a few short of NoelW's 6,268. Amazing. Also we had huge personal efforts from both MikeW and MartinC as they round out the list of new entrants on the Scroll of Honor. A personal aside, I am a bit relieved to see NoelW's mark to still as he is sadly missed.
Now lets us gaze upon the lifetime points summary for the top 50 of 806 total challenge participants over the past 12 years. This is a "body-of-points" look at what people have achieved over the various challenges they have participated in.
| Rank | Name | Lieftime Points | # of Challenges | Pts/Challenge |
| 1 | MilesR | 33,821 | 11 | 3,075 |
| 2 | MartinC | 29,550 | 8 | 3,694 |
| 3 | DaveD | 21,847 | 11 | 1,986 |
| 4 | NoelW | 19,802 | 4 | 4,950 |
| 5 | RayR | 18,021 | 10 | 1,802 |
| 6 | TamsinP | 17,447 | 8 | 2,181 |
| 7 | Millsy | 13,916 | 9 | 1,546 |
| 8 | ByronM | 13,843 | 8 | 1,730 |
| 9 | AlexS | 13,516 | 5 | 2,703 |
| 10 | KentG | 12,518 | 3 | 4,173 |
| 11 | GregB | 12,486 | 11 | 1,135 |
| 12 | SanderS | 12,164 | 8 | 1,521 |
| 13 | Curt C | 11,311 | 12 | 943 |
| 14 | FranL | 11,294 | 6 | 1,882 |
| 15 | MikeW | 11,075 | 5 | 2,215 |
| 16 | DavidB | 10,624 | 7 | 1,518 |
| 17 | AlanD | 10,129 | 8 | 1,266 |
| 18 | AdamC | 9,374 | 7 | 1,339 |
| 19 | Barks | 8,958 | 7 | 1,280 |
| 20 | EricM | 8,860 | 4 | 2,215 |
| 21 | IanW | 8,769 | 11 | 797 |
| 22 | JohnM | 8,679 | 10 | 868 |
| 23 | KenR | 8,155 | 5 | 1,631 |
| 24 | SamuliS | 8,007 | 9 | 890 |
| 25 | GrahameH | 7,995 | 4 | 1,999 |
| 26 | StuartL | 7,841 | 4 | 1,960 |
| 27 | PaulOG | 6,867 | 8 | 858 |
| 28 | BrendonW | 6,859 | 7 | 980 |
| 29 | LeeH | 6,633 | 7 | 948 |
| 30 | JamieM | 6,435 | 7 | 919 |
| 31 | PeterD | 6,346 | 9 | 705 |
| 32 | SteveM | 6,256 | 7 | 894 |
| 33 | ChrisP | 6,105 | 3 | 2,035 |
| 34 | ChrisW | 6,072 | 1 | 6,072 |
| 35 | TeemuL | 6,043 | 7 | 863 |
| 36 | PeteF | 6,025 | 4 | 1,506 |
| 37 | MichaelA | 5,951 | 7 | 850 |
| 38 | KevH | 5,861 | 2 | 2,931 |
| 39 | ScottM | 5,639 | 5 | 1,128 |
| 40 | TimB | 5,573 | 2 | 2,787 |
| 41 | MarkO | 5,507 | 2 | 2,754 |
| 42 | AndrewS | 5,454 | 2 | 2,727 |
| 43 | KyleC | 5,443 | 5 | 1,089 |
| 44 | ClintB | 5,347 | 4 | 1,337 |
| 45 | MartinN | 5,069 | 7 | 724 |
| 46 | JamesB | 5,012 | 3 | 1,671 |
| 47 | KeithS | 4,978 | 3 | 1,659 |
| 48 | AaronH | 4,958 | 5 | 992 |
| 49 | PaulS | 4,923 | 6 | 821 |
| 50 | PaulSS | 4,913 | 3 | 1,638 |
It really is a wonderful chart, save for the idiot at the top. Please note that the tally could change as somebody who runs this challenge has an annoying habit od spelling peoples handles slightly differently each challenge. I'm not naming names but until recently there was a CurtC and just a Curt in the database. This infamy has been corrected but other horrors yet may lurk within the inner warrens of the spreadsheet of Doom.
We have several honorary levels based on total points.
First there is the 10,000 club, for those individuals who have scored at least 10,000 lifetime points. This tier saw 4 new entrants into this cherished circle of painting awesomeness including MikeW, DavidB, AlanD and even the snowlord himself CurtC. Congratulations, gentlemen, you will soon be contacted to get your measurements for your rose colored smoking jacket. I do want address the controversy around CurtC's being awarded a spot in this hallowed circle. The rules are specific and entry is based on JUST the accumulation of 10,000 points. The fact that MrC has the lowest average (by far) of points per challenge is a distressing fact but it is not disqualifying (I know, I was shocked too). To have a member of the 20,000 club not meet the Dux's Golden rule of a 1,000 points per challenge is, indeed, a sad comment on our society but it isn't against the rules, well not against the rules yet.....
I suspect we should also be getting a coat ready for AdamC, as he is knocking on the door.
As we move up the ranks, there were no new entrants in the fabled 20,000 club, though both MartinC and DaveD added to their impressive totals. Sadly, Martin's effort fell just shy of entry into the most exclusive club - the 30,000 club which currently only has 1 member and the less said about that miscreant the better. Martin - all I can tell you is that the rewards of the 30,000 club are beyond your dreams of avarice. Due to legal restrictions and good taste I can not disclose any details. I'm sure you understand.
Well there you have it, thats stats round up for Challenge XII is done. I shall now step back in bask in the warmth of your adoring admiration and remember kids - always carry the one!
Post Script:
I have received several requests of a summary of points by minion and that summary is presented below. A few caveats - the data is pulled straight form the spreadsheet and is only as accurate as the diligence of our beloved minions in recording their sacred names upon the electronic record. I am a bit reticient to post the results as the differ in absolute value from Tamsin's comment but not in direction as they do indicate Tamsin's "Team Tuesday" did submit the largest number of points of any team. However we are now left with the most troubling conundrum of which source is correct the spreadsheet of doom or our beloved Tamsin. This is a debate that will shake our very core beliefs in what is truth.
| Minion/Day | Points | Percent |
| 1 Monday / Peter | 14,968 | 17.27% |
| 2 Tuesday / Tamsin | 15,904 | 18.36% |
| 3 Wednesday / Greg | 9,280 | 10.71% |
| 4 Thursday / Barks | 7,975 | 9.20% |
| 5 Friday / Dave | 7,985 | 9.22% |
| 6 Saturday / Millsy | 7,940 | 9.16% |
| 7 Sunday / Curt | 11,671 | 13.47% |
| Anyday | 1,225 | 1.41% |
| Curt | 9,699 | 11.19% |
| Grand Total | 86,646 | 100.00% |
I look forward to your continued questions. Please note this added material will be on the final exam.
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