MIlesR: Week 4 Stats Update

Brace yourselves indeed, cause the bi-weekly AHPC Statistical Update is coming at you with a full load of mind numbing mathematical minutia.

That's right, Stats Fans, the numbers are in and the inferences are statistically significant.

The past two weeks saw a large increase in painting submissions, and we now stand with 81 of our 100 fellow challengers having made a submission.  As of tonight (Jan 15th) there have been 239 total submissions, including a staggering 47 (50 Ed.) entries in the armor (Armour Ed.) bonus round - that's a record!)

Lets go to the trend table and comparison to this time last year:

AHPC VII: THE STATS ROUNDUP
KPI's:
Weeks Completed	2	4	6	8	11	13
Weeks Remaining	11	9	7	5	2	0
Participants w/ a Submission	47	81
Total Submissions	89	239
Total Points	7,711	21,906
Participation Rate	47%	81%
Average per Submitter	164	270
Avg per Submission	87	92
Submitter % of Target Completed	16%	32%
Projected Points
Submitters	50,122	69,950
Remaining Bouns Rounds	9,261	6,787
Non Submitters @ 25%	13,358	1,657
Projected Total Points	72,741	78,394
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	1,100	2,339
Cav / Art	69	155
Vehicles	20	55
15MM
Inf	179	697
Cav / Art	28	178
Vehicles	16	63
6MM
Inf	479	1,051
Cav / Art	11	18
Vehicles	35	214
Score Distribution
28MM	84%	64%
15MM	7%	11%
6MM	4%	4%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	0%	11%
Other Scales	4%	9%
Total	100%	100%

Total scored points almost tripled to just under 22K over the past 2 weeks and we're at a 81% participation rate.  As with past challenges, the pace of submissions really jumps in weeks 3 and 4 once people are past the Holidays.  We saw a total of 150 submissions in weeks 3 and 4 vs the 89 we saw in the first 2 weeks of the Challenge.  Scientist all over the world are still debating the significance of the "Post Christmas-Rush".  I, for one, humbly submit it's proof positive that Holiday family obligations tend to negatively impact painting productivity.

In terms of participation, this years Challenge is at an all time high of 81% - even more impressive was the fact that the first bonus round (armor - and yes that is the CORRECT WAY to spell armour (Wrong. Ed.) shattered yet another record with 47 (50 Ed.) participants.  Umm it's actually 51....

I'm sure your all sitting there at your screens in breathless anticipation of what all this record breaking activity implies for the projected total points output.  Well lets crank up the ole Point-o-Projector Mechanism and dare to see the future.....

add the 3, carry the 4, sacrifice the goat and chant the dark statistical incantations ....

BOOOOMMMM!!!!

The number 78,394 emerges from the gloom to illuminate our lives with its unnecessary exactness.

I think I may be slightly over estimating but that's where the math stands.

In terms of scales, 28mm continues it's right and just domination of the tallies.  We did see the first inclusion of bonus round points (2,500 from the Armor (Armour Ed.) round).

We do have some ominous news to report - the fate of the 19 non-submitters, now referred to as the "Missing 19" is in serious doubt.  After painting up a passel of Spanish Fascists, it seems Curt has adopted a more authoritarian tone and making moves to purge the rolls of the missing 19.  While the Challenge Constitution gives him the power to make such decrees in times of emergency and he has done so with proper notifications, such a move is unprecedented.  All I can say from my position of Challenge Statistician is that Curt is adorable when he acts all authoritarian-like (Funny, Sarah says the same thing. Ed.). 

Comparing the first 4 weeks of VII vs VI:

Compared to Last Year
KPI's:	VII	VI
Weeks Completed	4	4
Weeks Remaining	9	9
Participants w/ a Submission	81	61
Total Submissions	239	231
Total Points	21,906	18,328
Participation Rate	81%	69%
Average per Submitter	270	300
Avg per Submission	92	79
Submitter % of Target Completed	32%	34%
Projected Points
Submitters	69,950	54,984
Remaining Bouns Rounds	6,787	10,250
Non Submitters	1,657	4,056
Projected Total Points	78,394	69,290
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	2,339	2,042
Cav / Art	155	140
Vehicles	55	40
15MM
Inf	697	239
Cav / Art	178	25
Vehicles	63	28
6MM
Inf	1,051	1,153
Cav / Art	18	180
Vehicles	214	133
		97
Score Distribution
28MM	64%	67%
15MM	11%	4%
6MM	4%	6%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"	11%	11%
Other Scales	9%	13%
Total	100%	100%

The key comparison is that everything seems to be on the same glide path but just a bit bigger.  Kind of like my waist line each passing year...

Well there you have, the Stats Update for week 4 is in the books.  All Hail Math, All Hail Math...

(Jeez. Can't spell. Can't do math with his socks on. How did this guy get this job? Oh wait... Ed.)

From RayR - 25mm Woodland Indians (60 points)

For my third entry into the Challenge, I painted up 12 25mm Warlord Games 

Woodland Indians with bows, that I received as Christmas pressies.

There are two pack, 1 i got from my Secret Santa, the other from 2 of my daughters!

I'm not entirely happy with them though, I think you'll all agree they look a tad

sun tanned!?! I should have changed the flesh colour when I had the chance, lets just say they've just come back from a 2 week holiday in the sun and be done with it!!

If my math is correct, these aftersun coated beauties should net me 60 pts??

MilesR: What's this - now a 12th entry on Monday?  Even more impressive is that RayR has his math right - will the spate of Monday miracles ever cease?

Ray - these chaps are very nicely painted.  I didn't realize that Warlord carried a first nations line and I will need to check them out - FIW skirmish gaming is always a lot of fun and works well with the Donnybrook ruleset.