Friday, 19 February 2016

Week 8 Statistical Update - The Tropical Doldrums

The Challenge is passing the 2/3'rds mark and entering what future scholars will refer to as it's "tropical doldrums" where the participants, perhaps addled by paint fumes and warm tropical breezes slow in productivity and spend their time gazing at navels whilst contemplating future projects and  imbibing on fruity drinks with deceptively high alcohol contents.

I thought I'd set the mood for this post with an image from my recent offsite at the Turks where Orchids grow from trees and hard working investment partners must endure 6 hours of meetings spread out over 4 days.  Why is this relevant? because due to combined machinations of the FAA and British Airways, I was - yet again - forbidden to bring paints, minis and x-acto knifes aboard their aircraft.  Rather than dutifully painting away to further the greatness of Curt "The  Minion Master", I was forced to endure hours of lounging by the pool or fishing on the beach for snapper with a  mandatory local brew forced into my hand.  Even more troubling is that fact I was compelled to do these activities in the warm sun and delightful temperatures of 76F rather than the more natural damp and artificially lighted environs of my basement.  Difficult days indeed.

But do not fear dear reader, for my statistical duties were not neglected during this interlude of tropical internment.  I was able to prepare for you another exciting, scintillating and (dare I say) provocative Week 8 Statistical update, or as it will be known in future historical texts "The Ocho".  You're Welcome!

Productivity declined a bit during weeks 7 and 8 with a Challenge low of only 119 submissions and no change in the number of individual participating (67 out 88 registrants).  We may have to send out rescue teams to check on the those forlorn 21 individuals who have yet to submit.

The average submission size have held essentially steady at 83 points per submission.  For those stalwart souls who have submitted at least one entry the average score to date has "SURGED!" to 594 points and these paragons of painting virtue have completed 66% of the goals for the challenge so things are right on track.  (Of course the author realizes that the term "paragon of painting virtue" can not be applied to participant #54 as he is a complete cad)

In terms of projected points - we've dropped the total projected points to 65,419 from last updates 70,624 - one of the biggest drivers in significantly dropping the level of points estimated to come in from the "Forlorn 21".  Still the points projections have been hovering between 60-70K in all projections and I feel pretty confident that's where we'll end up.

So without further ado, here it is glistening in the sun like a bloated beached whale in all it's olfactory offensiveness - the week 8 Statistical table.  Gaze upon it and become a better person due to the awesome power of statistics.  Please, no tipping the statistical provider as the crass introduction of commercial tribute soils the purity of the mathematical process.  No I do this solely for your adulation.

Weeks Completed2468
Weeks Remaining11975
Participants w/ a Submission41616767
Total Submissions98231359478
Total Points6,39218,32830,25239,812
Participation Rate47%69%76%76%
Average per Submitter156300452594
Avg per Submission65798483
Submitter % of Target Completed16%34%51%66%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds12,30010,2507,7503,750
Non Submitters @ 25% / wk8@10%10,0754,0562,370780
Projected Total Points60,72769,29070,62465,419
Figures Painted
Cav / Art34140326386
Cav / Art325106193
Cav / Art106180234315
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%11%11%11%
Other Scales9%13%16%19%


  1. I think you need to provide more visual representation to help us interpret the overall tabulated outcomes.. Pie charts... Mmmm... Pie,,, (oh sorry got distracted).

    Be interesting to see the uplift as we build up momentum into March ...I have a least as much to paint as already done in half the time.... But a little pressure always helps... Oh and leaving the easy stuff til last!

  2. Pie charts work well for categorical data but we really need line graphs with projected points totals and confidence intervals!

  3. I love it when you talk stats to me....

    1. My legs go weak when anyone says "standard deviation".

  4. I think we need more pictures of the sights on the beach... you know to help us paint skin tones better :)

  5. Also I think we need a look at the side challenges, Don't you? Not sure when they were updated last but surely they should have a place in our statistical analysis.

    1. Yes , some nice Venn diagrams to show the cross overs!

  6. Thanks for the stats, but I agree with the others that we need some sort of visual representation to help the mere mortals without appreciation of the finer points of statistical analysis :)

  7. Sigh, I try to stay pure to the numeric form of the art but the masses keep clambering for gauche graphics and food themed portraits. Perhaps this what William Shakespeare must feel whenever one of his works is rendered in comic book form.

    Then again, the people must be mollified lest they throw off their painting chains and rise up in revolt so I must comply with their baser requests for formatting.

    Panem et Circenses

    I pledge the next statistical update will be repeat with graphics, charts and pict-o-grams that would make Edward R. Tufte shake with rage and froth at the mouth.

  8. Your nuts, brilliantly nuts but nuts. Not sure what type, maybe macadamia.Oh where is the chi-squarded test?

  9. Given that we are all a bunch of very specifically oriented hobbyists, I think it's safe to say that any question of our deviations being standard has flown well and truly out the window.