Tuesday, 14 February 2017


If Ron Burgundy doesn't add credibility to a statistical update then nothing will.  In fact as you read this and any future Stats update, please do so using Ron Burgundy's voice.  It would make both Baxter and I very happy.

I'm here with the AHPC VII Stats Update for Week 8, or the "Ocho" as it's known here in the numerology world.

I know most of you were dismayed, nay even  depressed, about a lack of an update for week 6.  My work travel just didn't afford me the time to prepare a proper update for week 6 and rather than sacrifice quality, I decided you should go without.  Statistical withdrawal is a harrowing experience and one that I didn't inflict on you lightly.  Your suffering makes the Statistical bar go even higher.  I think theres some solace in that statement.  I also was still a bit shaken up from "the culling".  Being forced into to being the Snow Lord's hit man and striking the "delete" key four times is not something that should be taken lightly.  I'm still having nightmares....

But now we're here at week 8, and only have 5 weeks to go in this year's Challenge.  To date we've had 540 submissions from 96 participants - both on record paces.  Lets take a look at the rolling Tally:

Note: Those of you reviewing these stats in an office setting should consider angling your screen so as many people as possible can see you.  Stats are well documented to increase the esteem with which your coworkers hold you in.  As an added bonus it kind of looks like work and you need all the help you can in that category, don't you?

Weeks Completed24681113
Weeks Remaining1197520
Participants w/ a Submission47819696
Total Submissions89239417540
Total Points7,71121,90636,63248,905
Participation Rate47%81%100%100%
Average per Submitter164270382509
Avg per Submission87928891
Submitter % of Target Completed16%32%48%65%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds9,2616,7875,8514,255
Non Submitters @ 25%13,3581,65700
Projected Total Points72,74178,39484,68782,720
Figures Painted
Cav / Art69155305425
Cav / Art28178285361
Cav / Art1118108187
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%11%13%9%
Other Scales4%9%17%15%

Our current point tally of 48,905 points compares very favorably to the 39,812 we had scored through the same period of time for last years Challenge.  

28mm continues to dominate the figures painted totals with close to 5,000 28mm infantry figures painted - that's like a third of DaveD's Sudan collection, so you know it's a lot.

So what about the Point-O-Projector and it's machinations?  Yes I fired that ole' monster up, fed it the required kittens to grease the cogs, chanted the unspeakable chants to the math gods and turned the crank.  After some sputtering and a sound that I can only describe as a cry for mercy, the machine spat out the forecast of 83K points - approximately the same amount as the last tow projections.  My gut (which is large and therefore very accurate) tells me the projection is a tad high and I think the right number is 80K-ish.  Never-the-less, these are record setting totals.

Now, lets answer some of your cards and letters.  It's really very rewarding to receive your adulation. I deserve it, of course, but still it's the polite thing to say "thank you"

RR from the UK writes: Dear Prof Maths: What's it like to be an International Miniature Painting Statistical Superstar?
Well RR, I'm just a normal person like yourself when you take away the celebrity status, the adoring fans, and the lucrative endorsement contracts.  By the way have tried Vallejo paints, they're simply the best.

P O'G from "Down-Under" writes: Dear Stats-God: what can I, as mere mortal, do to be more like you?
I get this question a lot and, I suppose that's only natural, but Mr P it requires a lot of hard work and dedication to the study of the dark arts of mathematics - becoming a world class mathamagician is an arduous calling and one not for the faint of heart but the rewards, ahh the rewards are worth it.  Oh you do need one more thing - an unfailing ability to ignore the obvious facts in front of you that indicate you might just be a middle aged wind bag who isn't as funny as he thinks.  Banish those unfortunate facts and make your own reality - just like Trump, what could go wrong?

CC from "the Great White North" writes: Hey you moron stop wasting blog space with your idiotic ramblings!
Well, umm, I see that the Snow Lord is grumpy and may not have taken his meds.   Discretion dictates that I must scurry away to the stat's lab and go into hiding for a few weeks.  Don't worry, "I'll be back".

That's all the time we have this week, but please keep those cards and letters coming.


  1. Always good to see the stats from our mathemagical minion. Inspired by your numerological brilliance I did a quick comparison against week 8 from last year and to my shock and horror we are about 8k points shy of where we should be when you take into account the number of participants (67 last year, 96 this year).

    Does this mean we are slacking?

    Should our great Captain keep up the beatings until productivity improves?

    Or is it simply that the quality of individual entries is higher this year than last?

    1. Bring forth the wine-consumption-to-painting ratio!!

    2. More wine usually lowers the painting ratio though doesn't it? If it doesn't lower the quantity, it surely lowers the quality! I am with Tamsin on this one, I think our captian should put the beatings back in place! Joining this challenge constitutes a legal contract to finish your stated goal, right??? :-)

    3. We just need to set up the right risk and rewards - I say we set a rule that those of use who exceed their stated target get to the rights to minis form those who fall short in the amount of the over achievement

      If say I was able to exceed my target by 500points then I could umm "liberate" 500 points worth of minis from those unfortunate soles who struggle with meeting their quota. It has a nice feudal feel to it.

      "Mini's are for closers"

    4. I like the way your think Miles!
      I will thus be setting my AHPV VIII target to 5...

  2. This mathemagically inspiring. :)

  3. Only one stat that pleases me at the moment..

    1. You might want to take a picture of that stat.....

  4. P O'G from "Down-Under" replies:

    Dear mathamaguru,

    I was delighted that you were able to tear your attention from the mesmerising array of data and the squeal of lubricating kittens to reply to my query. I'm not sure how you found the time with all those supermodels who must by vying for the opportunity to fawn over you. The absence of week 6 stats did indeed leave me with a large dent in my vallium stockpile.

    Thank you for the advice on how I might emulate your addis like number crunching skills. Generation of statics to support alternative facts is clearly a state of mind that only the truly gifted can achieve, but one that I hope to attain with further brain cell reduction surgery.

    In the interim I would like to posit from my own analysis that on average, each finger in the challenge has completed five 28mm figures, but only 1.88 models in 15mm and a paltry 1.53 in 6mm. Is this symptomatic of an inability of the grown digit to grasp the smaller scales? If so, then clearly we need to employ an army of small fingered children to boost productivity in the smaller scales in future AHPC events. Thank you

    1. That last part scares me Paul.... Or scared me until I realized you said "Finger" and not person!

      5 28mm figures per person average over 8 weeks would be abysmal and I was thinking we should all be shot! Especially since Dave alone contributed about 2000 figures! That would have meant that many of us would have had to "un-paint" figures....

      I even went onto questioning your 'Murican looking public school math skills.... as my lowly Canadian maths edjumacation tells me that 4800 / 96 = 50 figures per person! Then I realized, no your from down under, it can't be that.... So I looked again and realized, it was just my public edjumacation reading skills failing me, as you said each "finger" painted 5 figured. Although how "a" finger holds a brush and paints is beyond my logic (or at least how it paints well), so maybe my reading skills are not that bad, they just got over ridden by reason :-)

    2. Byron, my initial thought was to consider per digit and thus lament the fact that humanity has as a whole, decide to largely ignore half our painting potential. Just imagine the potential that could be unlocked by painting with our feet too!

  5. As some who teaches people to lie with Statistics professionally I applaud your efforts and results.