Thursday 28 March 2019

From MilesR: Challenge IX Stats Review

Yes, Stats fans, it's time yet again for your self-appointed statistical guru to regale you with tales of mathematical daring-do and algebraic high-jinks.  I'm sure your all as impressed as I am at my awesome mathematical abilities, but first a few words of caution.

Statistics are a powerful tool that can be used for good or evil (OK, mostly evil but lets not digress) so we need to respect the math that underlies these other-worldly representations of truth.  The process of divining these insights is both as complicated as it perilous.  The incantations alone would drive the untrained listener mad and so this process must be approached with a high level of circumspection.  It would not be inappropriate for the "math-challenged" of this group to essentially view this endeavor as some form of god-like intervention into your drab day to day existence in a non-quantitative world.

It is an unfortunate fact that many small animals are "injured" during the calculation processes.  Is that price high? Is it cruel?  Is it required?  The hard answer to all of those question is an unqualified YES, so that is the price that must be paid - the iron price as you would have it.

This years iteration of the Challenge - number IX pitted 85 stalwart souls* on an incredible painting adventure - there were highs and lows.  Each spectacularly painted submission of miniature art came at the cost of paint spills, Xacto blade mishaps and the forced viewing of my crude painting.   The range of outcomes from Challenge IX was as varied as there are grains of sand on a beach but this band was united in the one goal of attempting to make miniature painting look cool.

Well there's always next year...

* technically it was 86 but we do not speak of the "lost one" anymore.....

On the topic of my painting, I would like to put to rest the rumor that I use a finger painting technique for my minis.  It's not true - I actually use brushes, just not that well and, due to a legal settlement, I am no longer able to name the manufacturer due to concerns over "irreparable brand damage".

So how did we do?

Actually, pretty damn good.  Oops sorry for the cursing Ray, I meant to type "pretty DARN good" - you can calm down now (he's very delicate).

Here's the summary of Challenge IX:

AHPC IX: Stats Summary
FINAL
Total Points 81,445
% of Target105%
# of Submissions
920
Participation Rate
99%
Avg Pts per Submitter
958
Avg Pts per Submission
89
Projected Points
79,428
Proj % of Target
102.5%
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf6,841
Cav / Art812
Vehicles146
15MM
Inf4,387
Cav / Art619
Vehicles390
6MM
Inf1,418
Cav / Art125
Vehicles266
Terrain "Cubes"
249
Points Distriution
28mm55.6%
15mm17.6%
6mm1.7%
Terrain6.1%
Bonus Round "bonus" Pts
12.2%
Other6.8%
Total100.0%

A few accomplishments pop out - we blew past our collective targets and had a 99% participation rate - the highest ever.  There were also a record 920 individual submissions - my poor spreadsheet groaned under the heavy load of painting data.  28mm sale figures still drove the majority of points but that dominance did diminish a bit, as we shall see below.  Challenge IX also saw the posting of a new individual points painting record (congrats NoelW!).

I think it should also be pointed out (because it makes me look smart and that doesn't happen often) that the point projection from the week 4 stats update was pretty darn accurate.  Excuse me while I pat myself on my back.  Ow, pulled a muscle, ok we better just move on..

To provide a bit of context, lets compare Challenge IX to last years Challenge - which, surprisingly, is referred as Challenge VIII:

Comparison to Challenge VIII
IXVIII+/- Var
Total Points81,44578,0383,407
Target Points77,20369,7537,450
Participants85769
Particiation Rate99%95%4%
Average Points per Participant
9581,027-69
Average Submissions per Part
10.810.10.7
Submissions920770150
Avg Points per Submisison
89101-13
Bonus Round Submissions
19818612
Score Distribitiuon
28mm55.6%58.8%-3.2%
15mm17.6%13.2%4.5%
6mm1.7%2.6%-1.0%
Terrain6.1%3.5%2.6%
Bonus Round "bonus" Pts
12.2%11.9%0.2%
Other6.8%10.0%-3.1%
Total100.0%100.0%0.0%

We just beat the points total from last year but as mentioned earlier set a record in the number of submissions.  The bonus rounds also saw a healthy uptick in submissions.  Perhaps the biggest news is the dominance of 28mm took a slight tumble with the slack being taken up by both 15mm figures and Terrain "cubes".  I have no idea who drove the terrain cube increase, but it certainly must be a most impressive and good looking Challenger.

To put the scale switch in a little more context and show the rather insane level of detail from the "Spreadsheet of Doom" lets look at figures painted:  That's a very healthy increase in 15mm figures painted and a big drop for both 28mm infantry and 6mm overall.


Figures PaintedIXVIII+/- Var
28MM
Inf6,8417,312-471
Cav / Art812678134
Vehicles146169-23
15MM
Inf4,3872,9241,463
Cav / Art61959821
Vehicles39034248
6MM
Inf1,4182,479-1,061
Cav / Art125133-8
Vehicles266342-76
Terrain "Cubes"249137112

Finally, let us record the final individual Challenge IX performance for all enterinity.

RankParticipantPointsTarget
1NoelW6,2682,500
2MilesR5,0513,000
3MartinC4,4701,000
4TamsinP3,4263,350
5AlexS3,2292,500
6FranL2,8871,000
7KenR2,7961,750
8RayR2,2741,200
9MikeW1,9612,000
10StuartL1,758500
11ByronM1,6202,000
12PaulSS1,592750
13DaveD1,5481,502
14SanderS1,5391,500
15Barks1,5221,200
16AlanD1,5031,500
17PeteF1,502800
18EricM1,4531,500
19GregB1,3811,200
20DavidB1,3701,000
21PaulOG1,3121,000
22DaveS1,2521,000
23Curt C1,2061,200
24ScottM1,204800
25AdamC1,112750
26PeterA9781,000
27TeemuL961900
28StefanK936500
29JamieM932750
30Millsy9081,501
31LeeH845600
32BenF818500
33PaulS8161,000
34MartinN813300
35BrendonW774750
36PeterD766500
37JamesM754750
38TomM753750
39BrettM748500
40IainW7301,000
41MattK7211,000
42DaveX6941,000
43BenitoM637750
44SamuliS6211,000
45JohnS6191,000
46JezT610500
47SimonM516500
48JohnM512500
49MichaelA510250
50PhilH507300
51StephenS504500
52EvanH479500
53RossM474500
54BillA457400
55MikeF439500
56NickJ427750
57JohnSh375500
58GrantH365500
59ChristopherS353500
60RobH334500
61MikeD330400
62IannickM322500
63FranjoB320500
64AlexK314600
65HerrRobert304200
66AndrewE242500
67JasperO228400
68GuyB218400
69JonathanO206750
70MarkB1571,000
71SidneyR140850
72ArthurS10950
73TomB83500
74IanW77500
75RafaelA75300
76AndrewL732,000
77VictorC65800
78EthanM501,000
79JeremyM47300
80KyleC42500
81EdwinK40500
82ShaunM25300
83RusselG22600
84MartinH201,000
85ValeryN161,000
0
Grand Total81,44575,203

Now it's time for some graphs.  I always feel like I'm pandering to the baser instincts of the audience as I trot out the pole dancers of the statistical representation world - graphs, a tawdry communication tool that simplifies away the beauty of the math.  Oh well, please enjoy the sequins and tassels as your peruse this lurid display of colors and bawdy shapes:


When compared to all the other challenges, IX  stacks up rather well.












Hmm points per day correlates to submissions per day.  Who would have "thunk" that?










While IX and VIII had some differences, we do behave in very similar ways as a group, thought we did see a slightly larger rush during the last few days during IX.  Oh< I feel like Larry Flint with these charts.







HALLS OF VALLEJOHALLA:
Lets us now enter the hallowed halls of Vallejohalla to gaze upon some of the legendary scrolls of both individual and career accomplishments over the course of these nine sacred challenges.  We shall gaze first upon the Scroll of Pigment Heroes, which lists the top 20 individual challenge painting totals to date.

Lets us all bow to acknowledge NoelW's stunning individual posting of 6,268 points a new world record!

ALL HAIL NOELW!

Well done, my friend - 6,268 points is a stunning accomplishment.

Challenge IX, did see four new names added to the list of 20 - a very nice accomplishment indeed.

SCROLL OF PIGMENT HEROES

RankChallengeChallengerPoints
19NoelW6,268
28KentG5,343
39MilesR5,051
42RayR4,940
58NoelW4,880
62KentG4,724
78MilesR4,550
89MartinC4,470
94AndrewS4,180
105DaveD4,138
117MilesR4,125
123ChrisP4,076
137MartinC4,051
148ByronM3,881
155MarkO3,854
168MartinC3,844
173JamesB3,761
187GrahameH3,611
107DaveD3,586
209TamsinP3,426

Now, lets us move along and stare in wonder at the "League of Painting Giants" - the top 25 Challenge career painting tallies.  We can see this list is topped by a pompous ass - the less said about him the better, but look at Dave D and Martin C's amazing accomplishments.  To be a member of the League is one of life's greatest accomplishments and all it's members should be proud to be of the list.

It is considered appropriate behavior to bow when in the presence of a League member as they cast the shadow of their greatness upon you.  You're welcome, by the way.

THE LEAGUE OF PAINTING GIANTS

RankNameLieftime Points# of ChallengesPts/Challenge
1MilesR24,66083,083
2DaveD18,33482,292
3MartinC18,30553,661
4RayR14,15481,769
5TamsinP13,75462,292
6KentG12,51834,173
7AlexS11,81242,953
8ByronM11,50361,917
9FranL11,29461,882
10NoelW11,14825,574
11Millsy10,36571,481
12GregB9,42781,178
13IanW8,76971,253
14AlanD8,24961,375
15DavidB8,02751,605
16JohnM8,0209891
17Curt C7,5609840
18EricM7,30432,435
19AdamC7,24051,448
20BrendonW6,80961,135
21SamuliS6,3717910
22KenR6,17732,059
23ChrisP6,10532,035
24MichaelA5,9517850
25KevH5,86122,931


Economic Value Added:
Ok now we get to the part that everyone is waiting for - the blessed "ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA) for Challenge IX.  First a few words on methodology.  In order to do so I shall now read from the Gospel of Statistical Tabulations, please everyone bow your heads.

In the beginning there was math and math was good and then math begot economics and evil was let loose upon the world.

The calculation of EVA is a holy task and requires the estimation of a unit cost per painted mini based on three divine segments - cost per mini, cost of paint and other supplies and the value of the acolytes time.

Then this total unit charge is multiple by the number of implied 28mm infantry figures from the total points of the blessed challenge just completed.  Said implied figure count is brought forth by dividing the point total by 5, the holy designation on 28mm infantry figure value.

But miniature collectors are weak and it is know that for every figure consumed in the passion of painting, four will more will be added to the lead pile and so the product of the unit cost times the figure count is then multiple by four.  This "velocity of replacement" is a universal holy law and shall not be ignored unless the painting apostle wants to increase it, which TOTALLY makes sense.

Now bow before your EVA!

These are the words from the Gods of Vallejo.

AMEN

Whew, that was a long sermon.  This years unit charge was raised to account for tariffs, Brexit madness, and general political incompetence across the globe.

Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)
Total Points81,445
Equivalent 28mm 16,289Economic
Value AddPrevious:
Cost per Mini$2.75$44,795$2.50
Painte etc$2.50$40,722$2.50
Painting TIme$12.50$203,612$11.00
Sub Total$17.75$289,128
Velocity4$1,156,514

WOW - this years challenge set a record in terms of EVA - creating $1.2MM in economic value to the miniatures industry - that one's going to leave a mark.

But that's not the full story - I we look at the challenge in total, its' created $7.2MM of EVA on a restated basis, using the Challenge IX unit costs.  That's astonishing and something for us all to be proud of.


EVA Trendline ($000's)
Lifetime
IIIIIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXTotal
Participants62448617288967685556
Total Points2,24530,56542,07959,93565,10564,69083,20078,03881,445507,302
Equivalent 28mm 4496,1138,41611,98713,02112,93816,64015,60816,289101,461
Historical EVA$14$193$266$379$500$569$899$996$1,157$4,973
Restated EVA$32$434$598$851$924$919$1,181$1,108$1,157$7,204


Well done everyone - now go clean up your painting stations and get ready for next year.  I've heard rumors that someone is gunning for 30K career points by the end of Challenge X!

You've been warned.










34 comments:

  1. As always Miles: congrats on the actual stats work which I have no understanding of, but your excellent writing style still makes it worth reading and checking whether anyone has noticed me laughing out loud. Great read mate!

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  2. All hail (and sleet) to our own god of numerology for using his mathemagical skills to bring us these impressive statistics!

    Larry Flint? You do yourself an injustice. I see you more as a Hugh Heffner, living in your sumptuous mansion surrounded by playmates and bunny girls. I mean, you can imagine the occasional serious article on economics in his publications...

    And no, I am not volunteering to live in that mansion. The outfits Curt insists on me wearing for minion duties is risque enough for me!

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    Replies
    1. Tamsin - you're right, Curt definitely has more of a "Larry Flint" vibe than me. I'm still reeling from his controversial and risqué renderings of the Great War - those are definitely not "G" rated. I never knew that Whippet tanks were known as the first pimp mobiles.

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    2. Tamsin... pass the double strength mind bleach... Miles as Hugh Hefner too much

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    3. "It's not a dressing gown! It's a GENTLEMAN'S SMOKING JACKET!"

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    4. Gentleman's PAINTING Jacket, if you please

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  3. Always an interesting to read the statistical analysis of the Challenge.
    I think we need to make up a "plaque," or something for the PIGMENT HEROES and THE LEAGUE OF PAINTING GIANTS.

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  4. Love the stats overlook. Thanks for putting it together

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  5. Do you want to come and teach my students economics of mining. They'd love you, as do we. I'm both chuffed and annoyed about my 3rd place on the all time list. mainly because I'm only 29 pts behind Dave and I'm sure I could have painted 3 cavalry figures to pass that paltry total.
    More wondrous stuff, thank you

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    Replies
    1. But you do have the distinct pleasure of knowing that you have achieved that position over just 5 AHPCs whereas Dave's total is from 8 :)

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    2. True and most of mine weren't fuzzies or camels

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    3. Yeah.. but remember.. I haven’t been trying for 6 of them

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  6. Gobsmacked.

    Thank you so much, Mr. Reidy, for this erudite analysis of the bigly statistical impact of us painting heaps of toys. Its a blessing that we don't have Miles working for the Orange Administration, as with his maaad skillz we'd all be suffering having to look at a built border wall, Trump Tower Moscow and a comb over fat face on Mt. Rushmore.

    One point of clarification: While the 'League of Painting Giants' is very impressive, it's statistical basis is not fully formed. There are several on that list who have participated in all ten Challenges, namely JohnM, GregB and um, well, myself. ;P

    For those who wish to delve into the Challenge archival record, here is both the announcement and results of that first edition:

    http://analogue-hobbies.blogspot.com/2011/02/napoleonic-winter-thaw-painting.html

    http://analogue-hobbies-napgallery.blogspot.com/2011/04/entries-to-spring-thaw-napoleonic_20.html

    Those with keen eyes will notice a Mr. 'jmilesr' commenting on on the posts. The poor chap had just missed the cutoff to join that first run. Yep, it gives you shivers. History in the making, folks! :)

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    Replies
    1. Wow, did they have computers back then. Must have been much easier painting naps by just going down to the barracks to watch them parade

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    2. Oh Curt, your adorable when your cranky.

      The League is both an august group but even within our hallowed ranks there are castes. I had hope to avoid point that out but you leave me no choice. While we all dine upon a raised dais in Vallejohalla, off to the side there is a kiddie table for those members of the league who have achieved an average score per challenge that is under 1K. There's no shame in being a junior member of the League. One day you'll make it to the BIG, big leagues.

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    3. "all ten challenges"? There was an AHPC0? :o

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    4. But there was a Challenge 0 and I made eleventy millions points (in my tortured mind)... ;P

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  7. Thanks, Miles, for the analysis and all the underlying work it must entail. Most edifying. I certainly do not agree with those who claim that the derivation of the word "numbers" is perfectly apparent from its first syllable.
    Thanks, also, for the kind words. Most gratifying and slightly (but only slightly) humbling. However, I am certainly not going to repeat that accomplishment next year, as I'm still hooked up to the oxygen tank to recover from this year.
    I've a hunch the rumour you report of someone targetting 30K is highly likely to be on the cards. Perhaps you can look at the curve of their performance over time and see what predictors can be deduced? Perhaps that person will be evaluating how many terrain cubes it would take to reproduce the entire Waterloo battlefield on a 1:1 basis?

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    Replies
    1. The battle of Waterloo would generate approx 1.3 Billion terrain cubes. I think that's doable. Maybe if we scale it down to 15mm scale so only 130 Million terrain cubes.

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  8. Replies
    1. For the record, I DID NOT BRING THIS TOPIC UP

      But since it has been raised, the question must be addressed - stay tuned.....

      Thank You

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    2. I believe there was a ruling a while back that there can be only one. Which has already been awarded.

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    3. Tamsin is correct - after an exhaustive search of the Challenge archives, it has been determined that the GIMP award must be awarded annually AND can only be awarded to Mr. Millsy. It is not for us to question the fickle whims of the Gods of Vallejo - our responsibility is to carry out their directives the best we can or face dire consequences. Said ramifications include the curling of paint brushed, clogging of paint dropper bottles and the dulling of Xacto blades. These gods are not messing about.

      So with that in mind. I'd like to formally award (again) the title of GIMP to Mr Millsy.

      Would anyone care to lead the traditional cheer of congratulations?

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    4. I believe it has also become traditional for me to lead that celebratory cheer, so

      "Millsy is the GIMP!"

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    5. and now, all is right with the world

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  9. Phew, let me catch my breath. You should put an NSFW warning at the top of the page. Those are some electrifying statistics, though why you felt the need to include those vulgar graphs is beyond me.

    Seeing our last 3 months rendered into the beauty of numerical quantification is at once both a humbling experience and a touch of sublime divinity. Thank you for elevating our works to this hallowed form.

    During the challenge, it seemed like 15mm entries were a larger part of the paint bombs than 28mm, though the final numbers show that 28mm was by far the greater scoring scale overall.

    I think it's time for a cold shower for me, there are only so many figures one can study before it borders on the indecent.

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    Replies
    1. Sadly, graphs are all the rage with the callow youth of today. I weep for our species.

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    2. Graphs! That's the future, that is!

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  10. You do what you must because you can.

    I could come up with my own graphs, maybe animated, more truthiness, some emojis.

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    Replies
    1. EMOJIS!!!!!!!!!!

      BLASPHEMERER!!!!!

      Emojis are the work of the devil

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  11. Nice numbers,lots of them, decent graphs, could do with emojis,must try harder!
    Best Iain

    ReplyDelete