From MilesR: Challenge IX Stats Review

Yes, Stats fans, it's time yet again for your self-appointed statistical guru to regale you with tales of mathematical daring-do and algebraic high-jinks.  I'm sure your all as impressed as I am at my awesome mathematical abilities, but first a few words of caution.

Statistics are a powerful tool that can be used for good or evil (OK, mostly evil but lets not digress) so we need to respect the math that underlies these other-worldly representations of truth.  The process of divining these insights is both as complicated as it perilous.  The incantations alone would drive the untrained listener mad and so this process must be approached with a high level of circumspection.  It would not be inappropriate for the "math-challenged" of this group to essentially view this endeavor as some form of god-like intervention into your drab day to day existence in a non-quantitative world.

It is an unfortunate fact that many small animals are "injured" during the calculation processes.  Is that price high? Is it cruel?  Is it required?  The hard answer to all of those question is an unqualified YES, so that is the price that must be paid - the iron price as you would have it.

This years iteration of the Challenge - number IX pitted 85 stalwart souls* on an incredible painting adventure - there were highs and lows.  Each spectacularly painted submission of miniature art came at the cost of paint spills, Xacto blade mishaps and the forced viewing of my crude painting.   The range of outcomes from Challenge IX was as varied as there are grains of sand on a beach but this band was united in the one goal of attempting to make miniature painting look cool.

Well there's always next year...

* technically it was 86 but we do not speak of the "lost one" anymore.....

On the topic of my painting, I would like to put to rest the rumor that I use a finger painting technique for my minis.  It's not true - I actually use brushes, just not that well and, due to a legal settlement, I am no longer able to name the manufacturer due to concerns over "irreparable brand damage".

So how did we do?

Actually, pretty damn good.  Oops sorry for the cursing Ray, I meant to type "pretty DARN good" - you can calm down now (he's very delicate).

Here's the summary of Challenge IX:

AHPC IX: Stats Summary		FINAL
Total Points		81,445
% of Target		105%
# of Submissions		920
Participation Rate		99%
Avg Pts per Submitter		958
Avg Pts per Submission		89
Projected Points		79,428
Proj % of Target		102.5%
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf		6,841
Cav / Art		812
Vehicles		146
15MM
Inf		4,387
Cav / Art		619
Vehicles		390
6MM
Inf		1,418
Cav / Art		125
Vehicles		266
Terrain "Cubes"		249
Points Distriution
28mm		55.6%
15mm		17.6%
6mm		1.7%
Terrain		6.1%
Bonus Round "bonus" Pts		12.2%
Other		6.8%
Total		100.0%

A few accomplishments pop out - we blew past our collective targets and had a 99% participation rate - the highest ever.  There were also a record 920 individual submissions - my poor spreadsheet groaned under the heavy load of painting data.  28mm sale figures still drove the majority of points but that dominance did diminish a bit, as we shall see below.  Challenge IX also saw the posting of a new individual points painting record (congrats NoelW!).

I think it should also be pointed out (because it makes me look smart and that doesn't happen often) that the point projection from the week 4 stats update was pretty darn accurate.  Excuse me while I pat myself on my back.  Ow, pulled a muscle, ok we better just move on..

To provide a bit of context, lets compare Challenge IX to last years Challenge - which, surprisingly, is referred as Challenge VIII:

Comparison to Challenge VIII
		IX	VIII	+/- Var
Total Points		81,445	78,038	3,407
Target Points		77,203	69,753	7,450
Participants		85	76	9
Particiation Rate		99%	95%	4%
Average Points per Participant		958	1,027	-69
Average Submissions per Part		10.8	10.1	0.7
Submissions		920	770	150
Avg Points per Submisison		89	101	-13
Bonus Round Submissions		198	186	12
Score Distribitiuon
28mm		55.6%	58.8%	-3.2%
15mm		17.6%	13.2%	4.5%
6mm		1.7%	2.6%	-1.0%
Terrain		6.1%	3.5%	2.6%
Bonus Round "bonus" Pts		12.2%	11.9%	0.2%
Other		6.8%	10.0%	-3.1%
Total		100.0%	100.0%	0.0%

We just beat the points total from last year but as mentioned earlier set a record in the number of submissions.  The bonus rounds also saw a healthy uptick in submissions.  Perhaps the biggest news is the dominance of 28mm took a slight tumble with the slack being taken up by both 15mm figures and Terrain "cubes".  I have no idea who drove the terrain cube increase, but it certainly must be a most impressive and good looking Challenger.

To put the scale switch in a little more context and show the rather insane level of detail from the "Spreadsheet of Doom" lets look at figures painted:  That's a very healthy increase in 15mm figures painted and a big drop for both 28mm infantry and 6mm overall.

Figures Painted		IX	VIII	+/- Var
28MM
Inf		6,841	7,312	-471
Cav / Art		812	678	134
Vehicles		146	169	-23
15MM
Inf		4,387	2,924	1,463
Cav / Art		619	598	21
Vehicles		390	342	48
6MM
Inf		1,418	2,479	-1,061
Cav / Art		125	133	-8
Vehicles		266	342	-76
Terrain "Cubes"		249	137	112

Finally, let us record the final individual Challenge IX performance for all enterinity.

Rank	Participant	Points	Target
1	NoelW	6,268	2,500
2	MilesR	5,051	3,000
3	MartinC	4,470	1,000
4	TamsinP	3,426	3,350
5	AlexS	3,229	2,500
6	FranL	2,887	1,000
7	KenR	2,796	1,750
8	RayR	2,274	1,200
9	MikeW	1,961	2,000
10	StuartL	1,758	500
11	ByronM	1,620	2,000
12	PaulSS	1,592	750
13	DaveD	1,548	1,502
14	SanderS	1,539	1,500
15	Barks	1,522	1,200
16	AlanD	1,503	1,500
17	PeteF	1,502	800
18	EricM	1,453	1,500
19	GregB	1,381	1,200
20	DavidB	1,370	1,000
21	PaulOG	1,312	1,000
22	DaveS	1,252	1,000
23	Curt C	1,206	1,200
24	ScottM	1,204	800
25	AdamC	1,112	750
26	PeterA	978	1,000
27	TeemuL	961	900
28	StefanK	936	500
29	JamieM	932	750
30	Millsy	908	1,501
31	LeeH	845	600
32	BenF	818	500
33	PaulS	816	1,000
34	MartinN	813	300
35	BrendonW	774	750
36	PeterD	766	500
37	JamesM	754	750
38	TomM	753	750
39	BrettM	748	500
40	IainW	730	1,000
41	MattK	721	1,000
42	DaveX	694	1,000
43	BenitoM	637	750
44	SamuliS	621	1,000
45	JohnS	619	1,000
46	JezT	610	500
47	SimonM	516	500
48	JohnM	512	500
49	MichaelA	510	250
50	PhilH	507	300
51	StephenS	504	500
52	EvanH	479	500
53	RossM	474	500
54	BillA	457	400
55	MikeF	439	500
56	NickJ	427	750
57	JohnSh	375	500
58	GrantH	365	500
59	ChristopherS	353	500
60	RobH	334	500
61	MikeD	330	400
62	IannickM	322	500
63	FranjoB	320	500
64	AlexK	314	600
65	HerrRobert	304	200
66	AndrewE	242	500
67	JasperO	228	400
68	GuyB	218	400
69	JonathanO	206	750
70	MarkB	157	1,000
71	SidneyR	140	850
72	ArthurS	109	50
73	TomB	83	500
74	IanW	77	500
75	RafaelA	75	300
76	AndrewL	73	2,000
77	VictorC	65	800
78	EthanM	50	1,000
79	JeremyM	47	300
80	KyleC	42	500
81	EdwinK	40	500
82	ShaunM	25	300
83	RusselG	22	600
84	MartinH	20	1,000
85	ValeryN	16	1,000
		0
	Grand Total	81,445	75,203

Now it's time for some graphs.  I always feel like I'm pandering to the baser instincts of the audience as I trot out the pole dancers of the statistical representation world - graphs, a tawdry communication tool that simplifies away the beauty of the math.  Oh well, please enjoy the sequins and tassels as your peruse this lurid display of colors and bawdy shapes:

When compared to all the other challenges, IX  stacks up rather well.

Hmm points per day correlates to submissions per day.  Who would have "thunk" that?

While IX and VIII had some differences, we do behave in very similar ways as a group, thought we did see a slightly larger rush during the last few days during IX.  Oh< I feel like Larry Flint with these charts.







HALLS OF VALLEJOHALLA:
Lets us now enter the hallowed halls of Vallejohalla to gaze upon some of the legendary scrolls of both individual and career accomplishments over the course of these nine sacred challenges.  We shall gaze first upon the Scroll of Pigment Heroes, which lists the top 20 individual challenge painting totals to date.

Lets us all bow to acknowledge NoelW's stunning individual posting of 6,268 points a new world record!

ALL HAIL NOELW!

Well done, my friend - 6,268 points is a stunning accomplishment.

Challenge IX, did see four new names added to the list of 20 - a very nice accomplishment indeed.

SCROLL OF PIGMENT HEROES

Rank	Challenge	Challenger	Points
1	9	NoelW	6,268
2	8	KentG	5,343
3	9	MilesR	5,051
4	2	RayR	4,940
5	8	NoelW	4,880
6	2	KentG	4,724
7	8	MilesR	4,550
8	9	MartinC	4,470
9	4	AndrewS	4,180
10	5	DaveD	4,138
11	7	MilesR	4,125
12	3	ChrisP	4,076
13	7	MartinC	4,051
14	8	ByronM	3,881
15	5	MarkO	3,854
16	8	MartinC	3,844
17	3	JamesB	3,761
18	7	GrahameH	3,611
10	7	DaveD	3,586
20	9	TamsinP	3,426

Now, lets us move along and stare in wonder at the "League of Painting Giants" - the top 25 Challenge career painting tallies.  We can see this list is topped by a pompous ass - the less said about him the better, but look at Dave D and Martin C's amazing accomplishments.  To be a member of the League is one of life's greatest accomplishments and all it's members should be proud to be of the list.

It is considered appropriate behavior to bow when in the presence of a League member as they cast the shadow of their greatness upon you.  You're welcome, by the way.

THE LEAGUE OF PAINTING GIANTS

Rank	Name	Lieftime Points	# of Challenges	Pts/Challenge
1	MilesR	24,660	8	3,083
2	DaveD	18,334	8	2,292
3	MartinC	18,305	5	3,661
4	RayR	14,154	8	1,769
5	TamsinP	13,754	6	2,292
6	KentG	12,518	3	4,173
7	AlexS	11,812	4	2,953
8	ByronM	11,503	6	1,917
9	FranL	11,294	6	1,882
10	NoelW	11,148	2	5,574
11	Millsy	10,365	7	1,481
12	GregB	9,427	8	1,178
13	IanW	8,769	7	1,253
14	AlanD	8,249	6	1,375
15	DavidB	8,027	5	1,605
16	JohnM	8,020	9	891
17	Curt C	7,560	9	840
18	EricM	7,304	3	2,435
19	AdamC	7,240	5	1,448
20	BrendonW	6,809	6	1,135
21	SamuliS	6,371	7	910
22	KenR	6,177	3	2,059
23	ChrisP	6,105	3	2,035
24	MichaelA	5,951	7	850
25	KevH	5,861	2	2,931

Economic Value Added:
Ok now we get to the part that everyone is waiting for - the blessed "ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA) for Challenge IX.  First a few words on methodology.  In order to do so I shall now read from the Gospel of Statistical Tabulations, please everyone bow your heads.

In the beginning there was math and math was good and then math begot economics and evil was let loose upon the world.

The calculation of EVA is a holy task and requires the estimation of a unit cost per painted mini based on three divine segments - cost per mini, cost of paint and other supplies and the value of the acolytes time.

Then this total unit charge is multiple by the number of implied 28mm infantry figures from the total points of the blessed challenge just completed.  Said implied figure count is brought forth by dividing the point total by 5, the holy designation on 28mm infantry figure value.

But miniature collectors are weak and it is know that for every figure consumed in the passion of painting, four will more will be added to the lead pile and so the product of the unit cost times the figure count is then multiple by four.  This "velocity of replacement" is a universal holy law and shall not be ignored unless the painting apostle wants to increase it, which TOTALLY makes sense.

Now bow before your EVA!

These are the words from the Gods of Vallejo.

AMEN

Whew, that was a long sermon.  This years unit charge was raised to account for tariffs, Brexit madness, and general political incompetence across the globe.

Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)
Total Points	81,445
Equivalent 28mm	16,289		Economic
			Value Add		Previous:
Cost per Mini	$2.75		$44,795		$2.50
Painte etc	$2.50		$40,722		$2.50
Painting TIme	$12.50		$203,612		$11.00
Sub Total	$17.75		$289,128
Velocity	4		$1,156,514

WOW - this years challenge set a record in terms of EVA - creating $1.2MM in economic value to the miniatures industry - that one's going to leave a mark.

But that's not the full story - I we look at the challenge in total, its' created $7.2MM of EVA on a restated basis, using the Challenge IX unit costs.  That's astonishing and something for us all to be proud of.

EVA Trendline ($000's)										Lifetime
	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	Total
Participants	6	24	48	61	72	88	96	76	85	556
Total Points	2,245	30,565	42,079	59,935	65,105	64,690	83,200	78,038	81,445	507,302
Equivalent 28mm	449	6,113	8,416	11,987	13,021	12,938	16,640	15,608	16,289	101,461
Historical EVA	$14	$193	$266	$379	$500	$569	$899	$996	$1,157	$4,973
Restated EVA	$32	$434	$598	$851	$924	$919	$1,181	$1,108	$1,157	$7,204

Well done everyone - now go clean up your painting stations and get ready for next year.  I've heard rumors that someone is gunning for 30K career points by the end of Challenge X!

You've been warned.