Sunday, 28 March 2021

Remember to Send In your Favourites for 'Challengers' Choice'

Hi Folks!

Just a friendly reminder to those who haven't yet had the time to please send along your top three selections for Challengers' Choice.  I've extended the deadline to midnight Friday (2nd).

Next Sunday I'll put up a gallery of nominations along with a voting poll. The announcements will go up on the 18th.

Thanks!

- Curt


KenR - Challenge Final Post


Another Challenge over, it only seemed like two minutes ago when it started ! But all in all for me a very successful one, I set myself a goal of doing a 28mm Allied Italian Legion for the Punic Wars at the start and barring the desertion of 8 Velites I managed to rock through it with a few days to spare.

But it wasn't all white tunics and shield transfers, by jove no. I managed a bit of fun and games along the way. I had great fun in the top Chamber of the Dungeon with my Bradford City Collection. Sadly I didn't make it to level two as I was focusing on my main personal Challenge of the Legion.

Imagine my surprise when with a few days to go I found myself with one complete Legion only to find I was 18 points short of my target. I quickly grabbed the first thing to hand that was primed and as if by magic a Wars of the Roses unit and Command Base appeared.

Another great challenge done, thanks again Curt for organising and being such a great host. I am sure I will see you all on the tinterwebnet over the coming months somewhere. 

From JamesM: Tank goodness, that's over!

Hi folks,

End of challenge wrap-up post from me, just to prove I didn't just paint four 15mm Cromwells and keep showing the same pictures over and over again!

This challenge I completed a rather paltry twenty-one 15mm vehicles, four 28mm infantry and twelve 10mm cavalry. 


I knew before I started, however, that time and concentration were always going to be a difficult for me to find for a range of reasons, hence starting with a target of only 100 points. Thankfully, baby arrived safe and sound in early January (after a very anxious 9 months), and my wife still made allowances for some painting time once we had all settled into a routine. 

I finished on 210 points, and almost fully completed my planned 1 to 1 scale 15mm Polish Cromwell squadron. That's a win for me! One week past the end of the challenge and the final 3 tanks have been completed as well (not shown in the picture). 


This is the first year where I've not had any bonus entries (beyond my Curtgeld). Mainly because I'm pretty dedicated to what I paint and purchase, so for most of the rooms I just had nothing that could work. Unlike in previous challenges, I found the requirements this time round to be so specific that it was hard to find any wriggle room.

Finally a rather unflattering picture of me and my muse - who was also fed up hearing about Cromwells:

Cheers to Curt, Lady Sarah and all the minions for all the hard work! And thanks to everyone who took the time to comment on my few posts - apologies for lack of many comments from me, but I did enjoy seeing what everyone else was posting!

 


AHPC XI: Statistical Review: Stat-A-Geddon Time

 

Ring the Church Bells, Bang the Drums and Blow the Trumpets!!!!!


It's that time of year again when your minds are well and truly blown from another blast of mathamagical wonderment.  Buckle up baby, things are about to get statistically significant.


Those of you with refined and more delicate constitutions may want to look away or skip to end of this post where some soothing charts are included to help everyone come down from the statistically induced state of euphoria this post is sure to induce.  Well, I'm pretty sure it will induce some type of reaction but that may vary by person.  Better put a bucket next to you, you know, just in case.


Challenge XI has been in the books a little over a week - and like a fine wine, it does take a few days to settle down and ripen before being reviewed.  I'm also sure you are aware that the arcane process we have to go through to review the data is both cumbersome and not for the squeamish - a lot of kittens gave their all for this review (literally - gears don't grease themselves) don't let their sacrifices be in vane by skipping to the end and looking at the EVA stats.


Challenge XI saw 84 intrepid pigment warriors embark upon the usual mission to paint away the winter months.  This challenge was even more important for all of us as it was a welcome distraction from some of the darkest days of the pandemic as December wore into January.  Hopefully all of our respective geographies are beginning to see the corner turned but I suspect COVID-19 has one or two more surprises in store for us.  Never-the-less we will persevere.  I'd like to thank all of you for creating a wonderful community that really was important to me during those difficult days.  Now back to battering you about the head with numbers.


We few, we happy few of 84 pigment warriors generated a total of 82,619 points which was just shy of the overall top Challenge total of 83,200 from Challenge VII (which had a whopping 96 participants).  That's a huge tally and one all of you should be proud of.  Even more spectacular and statistically improbable Challenge XI saw not just a tie but a threeway tie for total points from painting titans Martin C, Noel W and the village idiot.  Astounding, supremely improbable and TOTALLY COINCIDENTAL.  What are the odds such a breathtakingly remote event like that could occur - well the mathematical machines are still grinding away at the exact probability but I think we all can be sure that it's greater than zero.  You know it's legit because the final score is a prime number.


Lets take a look at How Challenge XI compares to Challenge X:


AHPC XI Stats Summary:
XIX
Total Points82,61968,878
% of Target121.68%109.00%
Participants8468
# of Submissions1,261956
# of Chamber / Island Submissions518437
Avg Submissions per Participant1514
Avg Pts per Submitter9841013
Avg Pts per Submission6672
Total Points per Week6,3555,298
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf6,7654,785
Cav / Art798454
Vehicles97122
15MM
Inf2,5192,083
Cav / Art527588
Vehicles196144
6MM
Inf2,5192,496
Cav / Art695471
Vehicles30235
Terrain "Cubes"125191
Points Distribution
28mm52.95%44.85%
15mm10.55%11.14%
6mm2.44%3.18%
Terrain3.03%5.54%
Chamber / Island Bonus Pts22.94%25.12%
Other Scales8.10%10.18%
Total100.00%100.00%

 First of all - we crushed our respective target points, exceeding it by a whopping 122%. Even more impressive is that fact that 65 out 84 participants exceeded their personal targets.  One of the Hallmarks of Challenge XI was the points generation and participation levels where shared much more broadly across the participants rather than concentrated in a handful of painting over achievers.  To me, that's one of the most heartening statistics about both the hobby and the Challenge itself - from a community perspective, I think it's very, very strong.


Challenge XI also saw a record breaking total number of submissions - we usually average plus or minus 1,000 entries but this year saw a whopping 1,261 - in part fueled by the very engaging room challenge.  Still when compared to last year (which had the similar "Challenge Island" aspect, the average number of submissions still increase from 14 in X to 15 over the course of XI.


Interestingly, while the absolute number of special challenge submissions increase from 437 to 518 from X to XI, the share of total submissions decreased and Island submission where 47% of all Challenge X entries while during Challenge 9, the challenge room submissions were just 41%.  Please note the data was adjusted to separate out those submissions that combined multiple rooms.


So what did we paint?  28mm reclaimed its majority control of the Democratic Republic of Miniatures at 52.95% of Challenge XI points were directly related to 29mm subjects.  We painted a total of 6,765 28mm Infantry figures, 798 Cavalry and Guns and 97 Vehicles.  Thats a lot!


Even though we painted more 15 and 6mm figures in absolute numbers during Challenge XI, their total share of points declined.  The biggest drop offs when compared to Challenge X where in 10mm scale and terrain.  (Editors note: I did my best to keep the terrain scores up).  One project I will undertake in the future is to re-sort the entries by topic/eras (WW2, Napoleonics, ACW, 40k , etc) and compare that to the data from the WSS surveys to see if there are any interesting trends - don't worry Jasper and Guy, you'll get first dibs on any findings).


Let's  dont we take a closer look at Challenge XI?  Sadly, for this review I will now need to resort to the use of graphs and charts.  I apologize for garish introduction of color and clarity in this statistical review.



The chart above shows points per day.  Like past challenges, Challenge XI had its mad dash of points in the end (I'm looking at you Guy "last day points avalanche" Bowers).  In all past challenges, the points progression was "U" shaped with a large  dip in productivity during the second month, which scholars refer to as the "AHPC February Doldrums".  That did not happen during Challenge XI, where production barely dropped from month 1 to month 2 as seen below:

 

Month147626,434
Month236225,314
Month342330,871
1,26182,619


If we examine the distribution of daily points (why? because I can) the dominance of 28mm (the blue bar) becomes clear.  This group does like its 28mm figures


How do we compare to all the other Challenges?
Well, I'm glad you asked.  Sadly, more charts are required



Points per participant is a fascinating chart for me - while the population for challenge changes (about 25% turnover) we have settled into a pretty set pattern of around a 1K points per participant.

Economic Value Add
This section tends to be the most popular but does require a little explanation.  As an enterprise, the AHPC does represent a form of economic stimulus for the hobby as we purchase miniatures along with the supplies to paint and base them.  Moreover we will also likely replace those resources consumed in this enterprise with new ones.  Professionally, I live in a world of unit economic analysis and, as a financial services professional, you know you can trust me - when have we ever let you down?

The process used to calculate the Economic Value Add of the Challenge involves the determining the three pillars of miniature valuation:

Pillar 1: 28mm Equivalent Figures
Convert the total points into equivalent 28mm infantry figures.  This one is pretty easy divide the total score by 5 points per figure: 82,619 divided by 5 equals 16,524 figure equivalents

Pillar 2: Cost per Figure 
Estimate the unit cost of painting a figure.  This step is a bit more complicated and breaks down the total cost of a figure into three component:

Figure Cost: 
The cost the figure itself which includes postage, taxes and such.  The figure costs have have been increase this year from $3.00 to $3.25  to account for inflation Suez canal blockages, GW predatory pricing and other factors.

Consumables:
Paints, glues, basing materials, Xacto blades and other items that are consumed in making the figure.  Bear in mind its not just the cost of the paint on the figure - your paint wastage on your palette has been factored in.  Please note medical costs from xacto blade mishaps are factored into labor costs below.  Consumables are estimated at $2.75 a figure

Labor:
Painting a miniature takes time, your time in fact and time IS money so we need to factor in a Labor cost.  This has always been a hotly debated component as different people paint at different speeds and quality varies and some of you have rather high opinions of your own value - yeah, yeah, yeah - blah, blah, blah.  You all will get the average hourly rate and like it.  By the way that hourly rate is $12.75

Pillar 3: Economic Velocity
It just takes one glance at out respective lead mountains to realize we purchase more than we paint.  In fact theres an economic term for that called velocity - after many year of costly research and field experimentation, scientist have determined that for every figure painted, 5 are purchased, hence a base velocity of 5.  This value has been adjusted upward to 5.25 to reflect stress buying induced during the pandemic.


The formula for total EVA is just to simply multiply the three pillars together - easy, peasy right?

Without further ado - I present to you the EVA calculation for Challenge XI - drum roll please.....



Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)
CHALLENGE XI
Previous
EconomicChallenge
Value Add(AHPC X)
Total Points82,619
Equivalent 28mm16,524
Cost per Mini$3.00$49,571$2.75
Paints etc$2.75$45,440$2.50
Painting TIme$12.75$210,678$12.50
Sub Total$18.50$305,690$17.75
Velocity5.25$1,604,8705

BOOM! Challenge XI has generated $1.6 Million buck-a-roos to the hobby.  A true economic titan in 28mm scale.  But the story doesn't end here (no matter how much you want it to right now).  If we look at the cumulative economic value of a 11 Challenges:


We just crossed $10,000,0000 in total value delivered to the hobby.  You can take that nm=umber to the bank - just don't use my name.

I suspect Curt is now wondering where his cut is.  I suspect he is now regretting my offer to negotiate a marketing agreement for him

Halls of Vallejohalla
Lets us now all journey to the fabled  Halls of Vallajohalla, where the great deeds of painting challenges past are forever remembered for the feats of bravery they are

Top 25 Individual Scores:
The first shrine we come upon is the Top 25 individual Scores.  Challenge XI sees 3 names added to the sacred band of 25:

RankChallengeChallengerPoints
19NoelW6,268
28KentG5,343
39MilesR5,051
410NoelW5,011
52RayR4,940
68NoelW4,880
72KentG4,724
88MilesR4,550
99MartinC4,470
104AndrewS4,180
115DaveD4,138
127MilesR4,125
133ChrisP4,076
147MartinC4,051
158ByronM3,881
165MarkO3,854
178MartinC3,844
1810MartinC3,789
103JamesB3,761
2011MilesR3,643
2111Martin Cooke3,643
2211Noel Williams3,643
237GrahameH3,611
247DaveD3,586
2510MilesR3,475


Finally, it's time to gaze upon the scroll of lifetime points, where the career exploits of Challenge participants are forever recorded so that no will forget these seasoned painting warriors and their feats of tiny brushes.

RankNameLieftime Points# of ChallengesPts/Challenge
1MilesR31,778103,178
2MartinC22,09463,682
3DaveD20,00792,223
4NoelW19,80244,950
5RayR15,84191,760
6TamsinP15,63172,233
7AlexS13,51652,703
8ByronM13,17371,882
9KentG12,51834,173
10Millsy12,14481,518
11GregB11,294101,129
12FranL11,29461,882
13SanderS10,88471,555
14DavidB9,23861,540
15EricM8,86042,215
16IanW8,76971,253
17AlanD8,69171,242
18JohnM8,67910868
19AdamC8,34761,391
20Barks8,12261,354
21Curt C7,5609840
22SamuliS7,1548894
23GrahameH7,14532,382
24KenR7,12341,781
25BrendonW6,8597980
26MikeW6,47441,619
27ChrisP6,10532,035
28PaulOG6,0397863
29MichaelA5,9517850
30KevH5,86122,931
31LeeH5,7106952
32PeterD5,6108701
33TimB5,57322,787
34StuartL5,56031,853
35MarkO5,50722,754
36AndrewS5,45422,727
37JamieM5,4076901
38ClintB5,34741,337
39SteveM5,3376890
40MartinN5,0697724
41PeteF5,02331,674
42JamesB5,01231,671

This year we see two new entrants into the 20K club as both Martin and DaveD surpass 20,000 Lifetime points.  Noel is knocking on the door and at his bracing pace will surely enter next year.  All hail our painting hero's with 5,000 of more lifetime points.  They do have the "Right Stuff".

Well there you have it, the statistical review of Challenge XI is now done.  I'm not sure if I should say "you're welcome" or "I'm really sorry for subjecting you to this drivel" - maybe you can let me know in the comments.

Have a wonderful and healthy summer, get your vaccines and I look forward to seeing you all for Challenge 12.  

Miles