AHPC XI: Statistical Review: Stat-A-Geddon Time

 

Ring the Church Bells, Bang the Drums and Blow the Trumpets!!!!!

It's that time of year again when your minds are well and truly blown from another blast of mathamagical wonderment.  Buckle up baby, things are about to get statistically significant.

Those of you with refined and more delicate constitutions may want to look away or skip to end of this post where some soothing charts are included to help everyone come down from the statistically induced state of euphoria this post is sure to induce.  Well, I'm pretty sure it will induce some type of reaction but that may vary by person.  Better put a bucket next to you, you know, just in case.

Challenge XI has been in the books a little over a week - and like a fine wine, it does take a few days to settle down and ripen before being reviewed.  I'm also sure you are aware that the arcane process we have to go through to review the data is both cumbersome and not for the squeamish - a lot of kittens gave their all for this review (literally - gears don't grease themselves) don't let their sacrifices be in vane by skipping to the end and looking at the EVA stats.

Challenge XI saw 84 intrepid pigment warriors embark upon the usual mission to paint away the winter months.  This challenge was even more important for all of us as it was a welcome distraction from some of the darkest days of the pandemic as December wore into January.  Hopefully all of our respective geographies are beginning to see the corner turned but I suspect COVID-19 has one or two more surprises in store for us.  Never-the-less we will persevere.  I'd like to thank all of you for creating a wonderful community that really was important to me during those difficult days.  Now back to battering you about the head with numbers.

We few, we happy few of 84 pigment warriors generated a total of 82,619 points which was just shy of the overall top Challenge total of 83,200 from Challenge VII (which had a whopping 96 participants).  That's a huge tally and one all of you should be proud of.  Even more spectacular and statistically improbable Challenge XI saw not just a tie but a threeway tie for total points from painting titans Martin C, Noel W and the village idiot.  Astounding, supremely improbable and TOTALLY COINCIDENTAL.  What are the odds such a breathtakingly remote event like that could occur - well the mathematical machines are still grinding away at the exact probability but I think we all can be sure that it's greater than zero.  You know it's legit because the final score is a prime number.

Lets take a look at How Challenge XI compares to Challenge X:

AHPC XI Stats Summary:
	XI	X
Total Points	82,619	68,878
% of Target	121.68%	109.00%
Participants	84	68
# of Submissions	1,261	956
# of Chamber / Island Submissions	518	437
Avg Submissions per Participant	15	14
Avg Pts per Submitter	984	1013
Avg Pts per Submission	66	72
Total Points per Week	6,355	5,298
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	6,765	4,785
Cav / Art	798	454
Vehicles	97	122
15MM
Inf	2,519	2,083
Cav / Art	527	588
Vehicles	196	144
6MM
Inf	2,519	2,496
Cav / Art	695	471
Vehicles	30	235
Terrain "Cubes"	125	191
Points Distribution
28mm	52.95%	44.85%
15mm	10.55%	11.14%
6mm	2.44%	3.18%
Terrain	3.03%	5.54%
Chamber / Island Bonus Pts	22.94%	25.12%
Other Scales	8.10%	10.18%
Total	100.00%	100.00%

 First of all - we crushed our respective target points, exceeding it by a whopping 122%. Even more impressive is that fact that 65 out 84 participants exceeded their personal targets.  One of the Hallmarks of Challenge XI was the points generation and participation levels where shared much more broadly across the participants rather than concentrated in a handful of painting over achievers.  To me, that's one of the most heartening statistics about both the hobby and the Challenge itself - from a community perspective, I think it's very, very strong.

Challenge XI also saw a record breaking total number of submissions - we usually average plus or minus 1,000 entries but this year saw a whopping 1,261 - in part fueled by the very engaging room challenge.  Still when compared to last year (which had the similar "Challenge Island" aspect, the average number of submissions still increase from 14 in X to 15 over the course of XI.

Interestingly, while the absolute number of special challenge submissions increase from 437 to 518 from X to XI, the share of total submissions decreased and Island submission where 47% of all Challenge X entries while during Challenge 9, the challenge room submissions were just 41%.  Please note the data was adjusted to separate out those submissions that combined multiple rooms.

So what did we paint?  28mm reclaimed its majority control of the Democratic Republic of Miniatures at 52.95% of Challenge XI points were directly related to 29mm subjects.  We painted a total of 6,765 28mm Infantry figures, 798 Cavalry and Guns and 97 Vehicles.  Thats a lot!

Even though we painted more 15 and 6mm figures in absolute numbers during Challenge XI, their total share of points declined.  The biggest drop offs when compared to Challenge X where in 10mm scale and terrain.  (Editors note: I did my best to keep the terrain scores up).  One project I will undertake in the future is to re-sort the entries by topic/eras (WW2, Napoleonics, ACW, 40k , etc) and compare that to the data from the WSS surveys to see if there are any interesting trends - don't worry Jasper and Guy, you'll get first dibs on any findings).

Let's  dont we take a closer look at Challenge XI?  Sadly, for this review I will now need to resort to the use of graphs and charts.  I apologize for garish introduction of color and clarity in this statistical review.

The chart above shows points per day.  Like past challenges, Challenge XI had its mad dash of points in the end (I'm looking at you Guy "last day points avalanche" Bowers).  In all past challenges, the points progression was "U" shaped with a large  dip in productivity during the second month, which scholars refer to as the "AHPC February Doldrums".  That did not happen during Challenge XI, where production barely dropped from month 1 to month 2 as seen below:

 

Month1	476	26,434
Month2	362	25,314
Month3	423	30,871
	1,261	82,619

If we examine the distribution of daily points (why? because I can) the dominance of 28mm (the blue bar) becomes clear.  This group does like its 28mm figures

How do we compare to all the other Challenges?

Well, I'm glad you asked.  Sadly, more charts are required

Points per participant is a fascinating chart for me - while the population for challenge changes (about 25% turnover) we have settled into a pretty set pattern of around a 1K points per participant.

Economic Value Add

This section tends to be the most popular but does require a little explanation.  As an enterprise, the AHPC does represent a form of economic stimulus for the hobby as we purchase miniatures along with the supplies to paint and base them.  Moreover we will also likely replace those resources consumed in this enterprise with new ones.  Professionally, I live in a world of unit economic analysis and, as a financial services professional, you know you can trust me - when have we ever let you down?

The process used to calculate the Economic Value Add of the Challenge involves the determining the three pillars of miniature valuation:

Pillar 1: 28mm Equivalent Figures

Convert the total points into equivalent 28mm infantry figures.  This one is pretty easy divide the total score by 5 points per figure: 82,619 divided by 5 equals 16,524 figure equivalents

Pillar 2: Cost per Figure 

Estimate the unit cost of painting a figure.  This step is a bit more complicated and breaks down the total cost of a figure into three component:

Figure Cost: 

The cost the figure itself which includes postage, taxes and such.  The figure costs have have been increase this year from $3.00 to $3.25  to account for inflation Suez canal blockages, GW predatory pricing and other factors.

Consumables:

Paints, glues, basing materials, Xacto blades and other items that are consumed in making the figure.  Bear in mind its not just the cost of the paint on the figure - your paint wastage on your palette has been factored in.  Please note medical costs from xacto blade mishaps are factored into labor costs below.  Consumables are estimated at $2.75 a figure

Labor:

Painting a miniature takes time, your time in fact and time IS money so we need to factor in a Labor cost.  This has always been a hotly debated component as different people paint at different speeds and quality varies and some of you have rather high opinions of your own value - yeah, yeah, yeah - blah, blah, blah.  You all will get the average hourly rate and like it.  By the way that hourly rate is $12.75

Pillar 3: Economic Velocity

It just takes one glance at out respective lead mountains to realize we purchase more than we paint.  In fact theres an economic term for that called velocity - after many year of costly research and field experimentation, scientist have determined that for every figure painted, 5 are purchased, hence a base velocity of 5.  This value has been adjusted upward to 5.25 to reflect stress buying induced during the pandemic.

The formula for total EVA is just to simply multiply the three pillars together - easy, peasy right?

Without further ado - I present to you the EVA calculation for Challenge XI - drum roll please.....

Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)		CHALLENGE XI
			Previous
		Economic	Challenge
		Value Add	(AHPC X)
Total Points	82,619
Equivalent 28mm	16,524
Cost per Mini	$3.00	$49,571	$2.75
Paints etc	$2.75	$45,440	$2.50
Painting TIme	$12.75	$210,678	$12.50
Sub Total	$18.50	$305,690	$17.75
Velocity	5.25	$1,604,870	5

BOOM! Challenge XI has generated $1.6 Million buck-a-roos to the hobby.  A true economic titan in 28mm scale.  But the story doesn't end here (no matter how much you want it to right now).  If we look at the cumulative economic value of a 11 Challenges:

We just crossed $10,000,0000 in total value delivered to the hobby.  You can take that nm=umber to the bank - just don't use my name.

I suspect Curt is now wondering where his cut is.  I suspect he is now regretting my offer to negotiate a marketing agreement for him

Halls of Vallejohalla

Lets us now all journey to the fabled  Halls of Vallajohalla, where the great deeds of painting challenges past are forever remembered for the feats of bravery they are

Top 25 Individual Scores:

The first shrine we come upon is the Top 25 individual Scores.  Challenge XI sees 3 names added to the sacred band of 25:

Rank	Challenge	Challenger	Points
1	9	NoelW	6,268
2	8	KentG	5,343
3	9	MilesR	5,051
4	10	NoelW	5,011
5	2	RayR	4,940
6	8	NoelW	4,880
7	2	KentG	4,724
8	8	MilesR	4,550
9	9	MartinC	4,470
10	4	AndrewS	4,180
11	5	DaveD	4,138
12	7	MilesR	4,125
13	3	ChrisP	4,076
14	7	MartinC	4,051
15	8	ByronM	3,881
16	5	MarkO	3,854
17	8	MartinC	3,844
18	10	MartinC	3,789
10	3	JamesB	3,761
20	11	MilesR	3,643
21	11	Martin Cooke	3,643
22	11	Noel Williams	3,643
23	7	GrahameH	3,611
24	7	DaveD	3,586
25	10	MilesR	3,475

Finally, it's time to gaze upon the scroll of lifetime points, where the career exploits of Challenge participants are forever recorded so that no will forget these seasoned painting warriors and their feats of tiny brushes.

Rank	Name	Lieftime Points	# of Challenges	Pts/Challenge
1	MilesR	31,778	10	3,178
2	MartinC	22,094	6	3,682
3	DaveD	20,007	9	2,223
4	NoelW	19,802	4	4,950
5	RayR	15,841	9	1,760
6	TamsinP	15,631	7	2,233
7	AlexS	13,516	5	2,703
8	ByronM	13,173	7	1,882
9	KentG	12,518	3	4,173
10	Millsy	12,144	8	1,518
11	GregB	11,294	10	1,129
12	FranL	11,294	6	1,882
13	SanderS	10,884	7	1,555
14	DavidB	9,238	6	1,540
15	EricM	8,860	4	2,215
16	IanW	8,769	7	1,253
17	AlanD	8,691	7	1,242
18	JohnM	8,679	10	868
19	AdamC	8,347	6	1,391
20	Barks	8,122	6	1,354
21	Curt C	7,560	9	840
22	SamuliS	7,154	8	894
23	GrahameH	7,145	3	2,382
24	KenR	7,123	4	1,781
25	BrendonW	6,859	7	980
26	MikeW	6,474	4	1,619
27	ChrisP	6,105	3	2,035
28	PaulOG	6,039	7	863
29	MichaelA	5,951	7	850
30	KevH	5,861	2	2,931
31	LeeH	5,710	6	952
32	PeterD	5,610	8	701
33	TimB	5,573	2	2,787
34	StuartL	5,560	3	1,853
35	MarkO	5,507	2	2,754
36	AndrewS	5,454	2	2,727
37	JamieM	5,407	6	901
38	ClintB	5,347	4	1,337
39	SteveM	5,337	6	890
40	MartinN	5,069	7	724
41	PeteF	5,023	3	1,674
42	JamesB	5,012	3	1,671

This year we see two new entrants into the 20K club as both Martin and DaveD surpass 20,000 Lifetime points.  Noel is knocking on the door and at his bracing pace will surely enter next year.  All hail our painting hero's with 5,000 of more lifetime points.  They do have the "Right Stuff".

Well there you have it, the statistical review of Challenge XI is now done.  I'm not sure if I should say "you're welcome" or "I'm really sorry for subjecting you to this drivel" - maybe you can let me know in the comments.

Have a wonderful and healthy summer, get your vaccines and I look forward to seeing you all for Challenge 12.  

Miles