AHPC XII: The Stats Roundup

 

It's that time of year - you know the one all of you typically approach with dread and horror as I force you to relive the nightmares of your high school algebra classes.  Yes, that's right, it's time for the AHPC Statistical review.  Prepare yourselves as the sword of Mathamagical Wisdom is about to smite your statistical ignorance - whether you want it to or not.

As you each prepare your minds to be blown, a few caveats and administrative points need to be discussed.  First, I must apologize for not being able to have provided statistical updates during the challenge.  Both the professional and personal world conspired to distract me me a good deal over the course of this pigmenting campaign.  Secondly, there is a concern that those of you not accustomed to and appreciative of mathamagical matters may be overwhelmed by the sheer beauty of a wall of numbers.  I do weep for you if you afflicted with such a condition and strongly urge you to have both smelling salts and medical support close by in case you are overcome by an onset of numerical vapors.  The author of this post assumes no liability for any arithmetically induced injuries.  Lastly, if you do find yourself going a bit wobbly as you peruse this treatise just repeat the following phrase:

It is by will alone I set my brush in motion

It is by the pigments of vallejo that my brush acquire speed,

the mini acquires paint and my score acquires points

It is by will alone I set my brush in motion

I doubt it will help, but it will make me chuckle thinking of you chanting that drivel.  Anyway, on with the statistical review.  Challenge XII broke several records, along with breaking blogger.  The two obvious ones are that XII had both the largest number of participants (97) and the highest ever point total achieved - which was 86,646 points.  Those of you who are paying attention might notice this tally is slightly different from the results reported by the Snow Lord himself in his final caffeine fueled submission, which was 86,634 points.  As I was preparing the update i did find a few mistakes and have cleaned up some submission scoring.  Please remember our cast of fabulous minions are all volunteers and, well, one does get what one pays for.....

Anyway, lets see how XII compares with the more recent challenges:

AHPC XI Stats Summary:
	XII	XI	X
Total Points	86,646	82,619	68,878
% of Target	101.35%	121.68%	109.00%
Participants	97	84	68
# of Submissions	885	1,261	956
#Planets/Chamber/Island Spots	626	518	437
Avg Subs per Participant	9	15	14
Avg Pts per Submitter	893	984	1013
Avg Pts per Submission	98	66	72
Total Points per Week	6,665	6,355	5,298
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	7,337	6,765	4,785
Cav / Art	609	798	454
Vehicles	215	97	122
15MM
Inf	2,835	2,519	2,083
Cav / Art	423	527	588
Vehicles	162	196	144
6MM
Inf	1,100	2,519	2,496
Cav / Art	192	695	471
Vehicles	248	30	235
Terrain "Cubes"	178	125	191
Points Distriution
28mm	54.31%	52.95%	44.85%
15mm	9.99%	10.55%	11.14%
6mm	1.43%	2.44%	3.18%
Terrain	4.10%	3.03%	5.54%
Chamber / Island Bonus Pts	15.72%	22.94%	25.12%
Other Scales	14.45%	8.10%	10.18%
Total	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%

  

Is there nothing more spectacular in the world that a dense chart of numbers?   I think not.  One thing that was a material change from previous Challenges is the absolute number of submissions declined form 1,261 in XI to 885 in XII, with corresponding drops in average submissions per participant from 15 to 9.  That really doesn't represent a decline in enthusiasm as the average points per submission went up from 66 to 98, but its an interesting pattern change from a population really not known for liking change all that much.  Perhaps we decided to take it easy on our long suffering minions.

One thing that didn't change is the popularity of "Themed" submissions with 626 planets being visited (and in some cases re-visited).  I think that "theme" concept has found a permanent home in the challenge mantra.  However, let us all hope that Curt raises his standards on what can be submitted to meet a themes requirement.  None of us want to she a repeat of the unspeakable event of some idiot submitting a poorly painted 10mm figure of Alp Arslan as a "Super Hero" for planet Krypton.  Scandalous, just scandalous.

In terms of what was painted, well 28mm still reigns supreme, accounting for 54% of the total scoring.  The wee scale of 6mm saw a marked decline continue.  We also saw large increases in the bigger scales of 40 and 54MM.  Still, 28mm remains the mainstay of both the hobby and the Challenge.

As stated earlier, XII achieved a record score of 86,646 points which was pretty much spot on the collective target we all set at the beginning of the painting adventure.  

So how does XII fit within the pantheon of all the Challenges.  For this section I must be your forgiveness as I will need to resort to the use of vulgar chart with their garish colors and lack of decimal places.   Please forgive me

Challenge VII through XII have been remarkable consistent in terms of total points - hovering between 75 - 86K

 

Productivity, as measured by average points per participant also is remarkably stead in the 900 average range.  However we have seen a slight reduction over the last three years which I think is due to the introduction of the "themed" journeys as they require a little bit more thought and effort to prepare for.  That's not a bad thing at all but we can see them impact in painting behaviors. 

Economic Value Add

This section tends to be the most popular but does require a little explanation.  As an enterprise, the AHPC does represent a form of economic stimulus for the hobby as we purchase miniatures along with the supplies to paint and base them.  Moreover we will also likely replace those resources consumed in this enterprise with new ones.  Professionally, I live in a world of unit economic analysis and, as a financial services professional, you know you can trust me - when have we ever let you down?

The process used to calculate the Economic Value Add of the Challenge involves the determining the three pillars of miniature valuation:  

Pillar 1: 28mm Equivalent Figures

Convert the total points into equivalent 28mm infantry figures.  This one is pretty easy divide the total score by 5 points per figure: 86,646 divided by 5 equals 17,329 figure equivalents

Pillar 2: Cost per Figure 

Estimate the unit cost of painting a figure.  This step is a bit more complicated and breaks down the total cost of a figure into three components.  I did factor in a standard inflation rate of 7%, which is a real inflation rate (removing the cost of energy which have been impacted by that criminal activities of a certain Mr Putin)

Figure Cost: 

The cost the figure itself which includes postage, taxes and such.  The figure costs have have been increase this year from $3.00 to $3.21  

Consumables:

Paints, glues, basing materials, Xacto blades and other items that are consumed in making the figure.  Bear in mind its not just the cost of the paint on the figure - your paint wastage on your palette has been factored in.  Please note medical costs from xacto blade mishaps are factored into labor costs below.  Consumables are estimated at $2.94 a figure

Labor:

Painting a miniature takes time, your time in fact and time IS money so we need to factor in a Labor cost.  This has always been a hotly debated component as different people paint at different speeds and quality varies and some of you have rather high opinions of your own value - yeah, yeah, yeah - blah, blah, blah. By the way that hourly rate is $13.64, congrats on almost earning as mush as a Star Bucks Barrista

Pillar 3: Economic Velocity

It just takes one glance at out respective lead mountains to realize we purchase more than we paint.  In fact theres an economic term for that called velocity - after many year of costly research and field experimentation, scientist have determined that for every figure painted, 5 are purchased, hence a base velocity of 5.  This value has been adjusted upward to 5.25 to reflect stress buying induced during the pandemic and the current global instability.  When in doubt, buy lead

The formula for total EVA is just to simply multiply the three pillars together - easy, peasy right?

Without further ado - I present to you the EVA calculation for Challenge XII - drum roll please.....

Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)		CHALLENGE XII
Total Points		86,646
Equivalent 28mm Figures		17,329
			Previous
		Economic	Challenge
		Value Add	(AHPC X1)
Cost per Mini	$3.21	$55,627	$3.00
Paints etc	$2.94	$50,991	$2.75
Painting TIme	$13.64	$236,414	$12.75
Sub Total	$19.80	$343,032	$18.50
Velocity	5.25	$1,800,915	5.25

That's right this little ole challenge is an economic juggernaut and has created $1.8MM in Economic Value to the Historical Wargaming industry.  I must speak with Curt about negotiating better gain share agreements.

In terms of cumulative AVE - we just crossed $12MM.  Remember you can trust these numbers, I am a financial services professional.  I'm pretty sure $12mm exceeds the GDP of Russia right now.

Halls of Vallejohalla

The final part of this whimsical mathematical journey is a tour of the Halls of Vallejohalla, where we can all marvel at the painting prowess of our fellow challengeanistas.  I do realize the terms "whimsical" and "mathematical" are redundant.

Top 25 Individual Scores

Challenge XII saw 3 members added to the "Scroll of 25" - the 25 highest individual scores in a challenge.  Here is the new Scroll of Honor:

Rank	Challenge	Challenger	Points
1	9	NoelW	6,268
2	12	ChrisW	6,072
3	8	KentG	5,343
4	9	MilesR	5,051
5	10	NoelW	5,011
6	2	RayR	4,940
7	8	NoelW	4,880
8	2	KentG	4,724
9	12	MikeW	4,601
10	8	MilesR	4,550
11	9	MartinC	4,470
12	4	AndrewS	4,180
13	5	DaveD	4,138
14	7	MilesR	4,125
15	3	ChrisP	4,076
16	7	MartinC	4,051
17	8	ByronM	3,881
18	5	MarkO	3,854
10	8	MartinC	3,844
20	12	MartinC	3,813
21	10	MartinC	3,789
22	3	JamesB	3,761
23	11	MartinC	3,643
24	11	MilesR	3,643
25	11	NoelW	3,643

 

I think we all need to tip our hat to ChrisW for his astonishing score of 6,072 - that's just a few short of NoelW's 6,268.  Amazing.  Also we had huge personal efforts from both MikeW and MartinC as they round out the list of new entrants on the Scroll of Honor.  A personal aside, I am a bit relieved to see NoelW's mark to still as he is sadly missed.

Now lets us gaze upon the lifetime points summary for the top 50 of 806 total challenge participants over the past 12 years.  This is a "body-of-points" look at what people have achieved over the various challenges they have participated in.

Rank	Name	Lieftime Points	# of Challenges	Pts/Challenge
1	MilesR	33,821	11	3,075
2	MartinC	29,550	8	3,694
3	DaveD	21,847	11	1,986
4	NoelW	19,802	4	4,950
5	RayR	18,021	10	1,802
6	TamsinP	17,447	8	2,181
7	Millsy	13,916	9	1,546
8	ByronM	13,843	8	1,730
9	AlexS	13,516	5	2,703
10	KentG	12,518	3	4,173
11	GregB	12,486	11	1,135
12	SanderS	12,164	8	1,521
13	Curt C	11,311	12	943
14	FranL	11,294	6	1,882
15	MikeW	11,075	5	2,215
16	DavidB	10,624	7	1,518
17	AlanD	10,129	8	1,266
18	AdamC	9,374	7	1,339
19	Barks	8,958	7	1,280
20	EricM	8,860	4	2,215
21	IanW	8,769	11	797
22	JohnM	8,679	10	868
23	KenR	8,155	5	1,631
24	SamuliS	8,007	9	890
25	GrahameH	7,995	4	1,999
26	StuartL	7,841	4	1,960
27	PaulOG	6,867	8	858
28	BrendonW	6,859	7	980
29	LeeH	6,633	7	948
30	JamieM	6,435	7	919
31	PeterD	6,346	9	705
32	SteveM	6,256	7	894
33	ChrisP	6,105	3	2,035
34	ChrisW	6,072	1	6,072
35	TeemuL	6,043	7	863
36	PeteF	6,025	4	1,506
37	MichaelA	5,951	7	850
38	KevH	5,861	2	2,931
39	ScottM	5,639	5	1,128
40	TimB	5,573	2	2,787
41	MarkO	5,507	2	2,754
42	AndrewS	5,454	2	2,727
43	KyleC	5,443	5	1,089
44	ClintB	5,347	4	1,337
45	MartinN	5,069	7	724
46	JamesB	5,012	3	1,671
47	KeithS	4,978	3	1,659
48	AaronH	4,958	5	992
49	PaulS	4,923	6	821
50	PaulSS	4,913	3	1,638

It really is a wonderful chart, save for the idiot at the top.  Please note that the tally could change as somebody who runs this challenge has an annoying habit od spelling peoples handles slightly differently each challenge.  I'm not naming names but until recently there was a CurtC and just a Curt  in the database.  This infamy has been corrected but other horrors yet may lurk within the inner warrens of the spreadsheet of Doom.  

We have several honorary levels based on total points.

First there is the 10,000 club, for those individuals who have scored at least 10,000 lifetime points.  This tier saw 4 new entrants into this cherished circle of painting awesomeness including MikeW, DavidB, AlanD and even the snowlord himself CurtC.  Congratulations, gentlemen, you will soon be contacted to get your measurements for your rose colored smoking jacket.  I do want address the controversy around CurtC's being awarded a spot in this hallowed circle.  The rules are specific and entry is based on JUST the accumulation of 10,000 points.  The fact that MrC has the lowest average (by far) of points per challenge is a distressing fact but it is not disqualifying (I know, I was shocked too).  To have a member of the 20,000 club not meet the Dux's Golden rule of a 1,000 points per challenge is, indeed, a sad comment on our society but it isn't against the rules, well not against the rules yet.....  

I suspect we should also be getting a coat ready for AdamC, as he is knocking on the door.

As we move up the ranks, there were no new entrants in the fabled 20,000 club, though both MartinC and DaveD added to their impressive totals.  Sadly, Martin's effort fell just shy of entry into the most exclusive club - the 30,000 club which currently only has 1 member and the less said about that miscreant the better.  Martin - all I can tell you is that the rewards of the 30,000 club are beyond your dreams of avarice.  Due to legal restrictions and good taste I can not disclose any details. I'm sure you understand.

Well there you have it, thats stats round up for Challenge XII is done.  I shall now step back in bask in the warmth of your adoring admiration and remember kids - always carry the one!

Post Script:

I have received several requests of a summary of points by minion and that summary is presented below.  A few caveats - the data is pulled straight form the spreadsheet and is only as accurate as the diligence of our beloved minions in recording their sacred names upon the electronic record.  I am a bit reticient to post the results as the differ in absolute value from Tamsin's comment but not in direction as they do indicate Tamsin's "Team Tuesday" did submit the largest number of points of any team.  However we are now left with the most troubling conundrum of which source is correct the spreadsheet of doom or our beloved Tamsin.  This is a debate that will shake our very core beliefs in what is truth.

Minion/Day	Points	Percent
1 Monday / Peter	14,968	17.27%
2 Tuesday / Tamsin	15,904	18.36%
3 Wednesday / Greg	9,280	10.71%
4 Thursday / Barks	7,975	9.20%
5 Friday / Dave	7,985	9.22%
6 Saturday / Millsy	7,940	9.16%
7 Sunday / Curt	11,671	13.47%
Anyday	1,225	1.41%
Curt	9,699	11.19%
Grand Total	86,646	100.00%

I look forward to your continued questions.  Please note this added material will be on the final exam.