Sunday, 21 January 2018

From MilesR: Week 4 Stats Round Up: "4 in the Bin and 9 to Come In"

Prepare yourselves indeed, because there are Stats inbound and they will shower you with their righteous math-a-magical precision and leave you slack jawed in awe.  That's right, baby, I'm about to lay some heavy stats on you.

You're welcome.

With 4 weeks in the books, we're on pace for a sizzling Challenge 8.  At press time, the point total was just under 20K, with 67 of our fellow Challenge-a-nistas submitting something.  That's a participation rate of 84%.  From a subjective viewpoint, I do think the quality this year is really top notch.

This reporting period includes the first "bonus round" category of flight and we had 45 submissions which I think is an all time record.

Ok, enough blabbering about past performance - what is the Point-O-Projector saying about the predicted outcome?  Do you want to know (wait for positive audience response....)

crickets, chirping...

Well, dammit, I'm going to tell you anyway.  The P-O-P (version 8.0) has estimated a total point level of 71K points.  The forecast at this point tends to be pretty accurate with a  variance of +/- 4K points.  The only wild card is the 13 (now 9 as of post time) lost souls who have yet to submit an entry.  I've deeply discounted any future points from them which hurts me.  Lets us all hope and pray they follow the light of St. Vallejo and find the way to their collective painting happy places wherever that may be.  Amen

The culling is coming and it will go down on your permanent record.


AHPC VIII: THE STATS ROUNDUP
KPI's:
Weeks Completed24681113
Weeks Remaining1197520
Participants w/ a Submission5267
Total Submissions118238
Total Points7,18418,716
Participation Rate65%84%
Average per Submitter138279
Avg per Submission6179
Submitter % of Target Completed15%41%
Projected Points
Submitters46,69660,827
Remaining Bouns Rounds7,5009,000
Non Submitters (Discounted)6,7691,090
Projected Total Points60,96570,917
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf8821,891
Cav / Art47128
Vehicles2051
15MM
Inf110404
Cav / Art1625
Vehicles1670
6MM
Inf8341,483
Cav / Art2252
Vehicles70187
Score Distribution
28MM72%61%
15MM5%7%
6MM8%6%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%12%
Terrain3%4%
Other Scales15%10%
Total100%100%


Now lets compare week 4 of VIII to the same time period from VII:

AHPC: VIII vs VII
KPI's:VIIIVII+/- Var
Weeks Completed44
Weeks Remaining99
Participants w/ a Submission6781-17.28%
Total Submissions238239-0.42%
Total Points18,71621,906-14.56%
Participation Rate84%81%
Average per Submitter2792703.29%
Avg per Submission7992-14.20%
Submitter % of Target Completed41%32%9%
Projected Points
Submitters60,82769,950-9,123
Remaining Bouns Rounds9,0006,7872,213
Non Submitters @ 50%1,0901,657-566
Projected Total Points70,91778,394-7,476
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf1,8912,339-19.15%
Cav / Art128155-17.42%
Vehicles5155-7.27%
15MM
Inf404697-42.04%
Cav / Art25178-85.96%
Vehicles706311.11%
6MM
Inf1,4831,05141.10%
Cav / Art5218188.89%
Vehicles187214-12.62%
Score Distribution
28MM61%64%
15MM7%11%
6MM6%4%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"12%11%
Terrain4%0%
Other Scales10%9%
Total100%100%

A few things stand out to me - while this year's challenge is a bit smaller in terms of participants, the activity level per participant is higher - you might say "more pigment per person".  The other big variance is the decline in 15MM and 28mm figures painted to date.

The new terrain category has had some impact as it accounts for 4% of week 4 points but seems to not be upsetting the natural order.  It will be interesting to see how 15mm fares for the rest of the challenge as it does illustrate the some trends in the bobby away from "big battles" towards skirmish games which tend to be mostly 28mm.  Because I'm a data geek, I'm going to try and look at submissions by battle type (big battle, skirmish, naval etc) and see if any trends emerge for the challenge data.  Yes, I am that boring.  If only there was someone involved with a wargaming magazine participating in this years challenge - if only....

Sorry for the delay in getting this post out - work has been a bit busy.  I'll try to do better next time.

See ya'

13 comments:

  1. Very interesting, the rise of 6mm and the new terrain stuff is interesting. The output per participant is up, also interesting. There appear to be a lot of bombs already, interesting to compare those. Interesting stuff. Hope I've said interesting enough

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  2. I've got 10 ton of 15mm that need a painting up. But points mean prizes, so I'll be painting mainly 25mm figures. Although I'm itching to get some 15mm NYW Spanish done! Hmmmm!?!

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  3. Uhmm Mr Reidy, can I ask about the projected points for future bonus rounds? This number has jumped considerably from 7,500 to 9,000 since last time even though the former figure included projections for the first bonus round which are now included in the totals. Can you enlighten me on your Trumpian economic projections?

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    Replies
    1. The previous forecast assume 30 submission per bonus round. Now with the benefit of the new tax package and round 1's level of 45 - I raised the estimate

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    2. Excellent you've revised your projections based on emerging experience!

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  4. I wonder if the difference in the points value of the smaller scale might be down to the absence of some people who favour those scales - eg, TasminP. Could a couple of 'high-value' contributors skew the output like that?

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    Replies
    1. Oh definitely. I think Tamsin, with her amazing output, pretty much owned the 15mm scale chart.

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  5. Yikes!
    These KPI charts are way too reminiscent of my Monday Morning Store Planning Conference Calls!

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  6. Intriguing data and conclusions Miles. My only question is: will you be submitting your “pigment per person” concept to the international body for recognition as a standard unit of measurement?

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  7. A fantastic summary, Miles! Thank you so much for this.

    As you know, I am only a recently test-tube-cast minion, but I have been deeply impressed in my encounters with your Holy Grail Winding-Spread Sheet to date. I am sure that notwithstanding the the above post, and in keeping with the Turin Shroud, the Holy Grail Winding-Spread Sheet will have more secrets to reveal before the end of Challenge VIII.

    I think a 'skirmish'/ 'battle' / 'big battle' analysis would be really interesting. Perhaps that's something we can help with, in identifying labels along those lines in the submission posts?

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