AHPC Stats Update Month 2: The February Doldrums

 

Well, it seems that there are nine weeks in the Challenge XI "Completed" column and you know what that means - yet another astounding Statistical Update.  Neither rain, nor snow, nor pandemic, nor actual audience interest shall deter me from force feeding you statistical gibberish.  

That's just how I roll.

Presented below is the now world famous incomprehensible wall of numbers which summarizes the progress of our collective pigment crusade through 4 weeks and then 9 weeks (as of Feb 20) and third column is where we stood at 9 weeks in for last years challenge.

You'll find none of those hip and garrish graphics in this report - just cold hard numbers in rows and columns.  I make you work for the knowledge rather than spoon feeding you the "high-points" and distracting you with pretty colors and slices of pie charts.  One day, when you find yourself on the streets or in a back alley, without a white board and colored dry-ears markers while being confronted by a gang of hopped-up academic thugs challenging you to an equation derivation throwdown, you'll thank me for preparing you to be able to do so.

As with all challenges we do see a little productivity drop off during weeks 5 - 9 vs the blistering pace of weeks 1 - 4.  Scientists have many theories why this occurs and the research is ongoing.  It really is one of the great mysteries of the universe.

One of the more interesting trends for this second month is that our blistering pace from month one has slowed a bit and we are back in line with more standard levels of productivity when compared to Challenge X.  Specifically points per participant for 9 weeks during XI are now 615 vs 613 from Challenge X - thats pretty much spot on.

We are seeing the absolute numbers of submissions a good bit higher than last year (838 vs 583) - most of that is due to a larger number of participants but there is about a 11% increase in productivity with the average number of submissions for XI being 10 vs 9 from X.  It does make the class oppressing capitalist in me smile when thinking of all of you as happy little workers toiling away to increase measured productivity.

Now I shall allow you to gaze upon the incomprehensible wall of numbers in all it's terrible beauty.  Look and be amazed (queue angelic harp music here):

AHPC XI Stats Summary:	Weeks Completed
	4	9	9
	XI	XI	X
Total Points	26,391	51,684	41,065
% of Target	38.87%	76.12%	63.86%
Participants	84	84	67
# of Submissions	476	838	583
# of Chamber / Island Submissions	279	516	288
Participation Rate	94%	94%	92%
Avg Submissions per Participant	6	10	9
Avg Pts per Submitter	314	615	613
Avg Pts per Submission	55	62	70
Total Points per Week	6,598	5,743	4,563
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf	2,172	4,155	2,828
Cav / Art	268	471	275
Vehicles	27	58	88
15MM
Inf	762	1,583	956
Cav / Art	97	304	334
Vehicles	21	97	98
6MM
Inf	1,476	1,566	1,238
Cav / Art	373	387	222
Vehicles	1	29	129
Terrain "Cubes"	29	99	64
Points Distriution
28mm	53%	52%	45%
15mm	8%	10%	10%
6mm	4%	2%	3%
Terrain	2%	4%	3%
Chamber / Island Bonus Pts	22%	20%	21%
Other	11%	12%	18%
Total	100%	100%	100%
Projected Points	91,031	80,398	68,878

In terms of what we are painting, 28mm remains the mainstay and has actually managed to increase its share of points to 52% vs Challenge X's 45%.  The other big variance to last year is the "other" category - during Challenge X there were a fairly large number of 20mm and 10mm submissions and we just don't have those scales in any number for XI.  I personally have a handful of 10mm American War of Independence figures that I need to paint up for a club project that may make it into this year's challenge.

So where will we end up.  The Point-O-Projector has been run and the effects of the February Doldrums PLUS Manic March have been factored in.  After significant deliberations, mega flops of computing power dedication power and raising a wet finger into the wind and new answer has been determined: 80,398 - a most respectable tally.

Now my rather ample gut tells me that forecast may be conservative as it's based on historical trends from past challenges.  Given the frantic start to this year, I suspect this group of Pigmentation Crusaders has a higher than average finish left in us for March, 2021.  

Come on you beautiful bastards, paint like your lives depend upon it.  Let's melt that spreadsheet of doom under an incalculable torrent entries.  

Ok, I may have gotten a little over-wrought there.  Lets just all have a great final month of the Challenge.