Challenge X: Stats Review - A Victory Won by Tiny Brushes Over an Even Tinier Virus

Bang the Drums, Ring the Bells, kick the Cats then ALERT THE MEDIA cause it's time once again for the Analogue Hobbies Painting Challenge Statistical Review: Version X - Challenge Island Quarantine Edition!

One quick comment on quarantines, if you're not sure of what to do in these difficult times or just need to be reassured look to your friendly neighborhood mathamagician for guidance.  We are experts at Social Distancing and have been practicing those skills pretty much our entire lives.  Welcome to our world, BI*****.

Ok, enough with the Public Service Announcements and on with the stats.

Challenge X was a fantastic affair but it differed from past Challenges in two key ways.  Most obvious was the replacement of the tried and true thematic bonus rounds with the brilliant concept of "Challenge Island".  As the numbers bear out, Challenge Island really impacted participant behavior and was, in my humble opinion, a smashing success.

The other big difference is the "real world" intruded on our little hobby safe space in an unprecedented way.  We started this Challenge with a portion of our participants struggling with a devastating fires in Australia only to end up all engulfed in a economic scorched earth fight against a microscopic foe and governmental complacency (I'm being polite and that will be be my only editorial comment).

These events brought home to me two important points: (i) how much I value this community and appreciate everyones contributions - even PeterD's (well, kind of) and (ii) while I often describe our hobby in self deprecating terms, it has been of critical importance to me as a stress reliever in an a time of economic and biological upheaval.  Having the ability to do so with all of you and be inspired by your collective efforts has been a true privilege.

Sadly, I suspect most of you are thinking "my God, when will this idiot stop rambling and get on to the numbers, those cold, hard beautiful numbers".

Your wish is granted, but no graphs - yet.....

Lets Take a look at a Summary of Challenge X vs IX:

Challenge X was more "efficient" vs IX in terms of the number of participants with 68 vs 85 but on a relative basis outperformed IX by a wide margin.  (I do wish the participant number was 69 as I missed Millsy's contributions).

Several key highlights about X include:
- We almost cracked the 1k mark in the number of submissions
- Participants submitted a lot more submissions individually - averaging 14 vs last years 11
- Challenge Island proved to be much more popular than the thematic rounds - generating a total of 448 of this years 956 submissions.  I'll be doing a deep dive on Challenge Island in a later post, but to put that number in perspective, past challenges averaged 175 theme round submissions (198 during IX out of 920 total submissions.  We call this in the stats biz "statistically significant".  I do know how you all go crazy when I talk statsy.
- 28mm figures painted saw a big drop-off in both numbers and relative share
- There were a lot more bonus points awarded but the "core-painting score" per participant wasn't that  much lower at 759 vs 800.  (this measure excludes all bonus points of any form)

Still some things remained the same
- we beat target by an almost identical amount 107% for X vs 105% during IX
- had a 100% participation rate

Perhaps most surprising to me is that the Point-O-Projector Apparatus proved to be scary accurate.  A the end of week 4, the projection for total challenge points was 68,429 and when the dust settled on X we ended up at 68,878, an overage of just 449 points or 0.7%!!!!  If only I hadn't submitted my last entry - those 6mm Russo-Japanese war bastards netted me 465 points!!!!

Anyway (as the authors pats his own back in undeserved praise) that was a pretty damn good forecast!

 You may now all oogle the performance summary.  Try not to fall under the spell of its awesome and terrible beauty.

AHPC X: Stats Summary		X	IX
Total Points		68,878	81,445
% of Target		107%	105%
Participants		68	85
# of Submissions		956	920
Participation Rate		100%	99%
Submission / Participant		14	11
Avg Pts per Submitter		1,013	958
Avg Pts per Submission		72	89
Painting Pts / Participant		759	800
Bonus Pts / Participant		254	158
Projected Points		68,429	79,428
Proj % of Target		100.7%	102.5%
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf		4,785	6,841
Cav / Art		454	812
Vehicles		122	146
15MM
Inf		2,083	4,387
Cav / Art		588	619
Vehicles		144	390
6MM
Inf		2,496	1,418
Cav / Art		471	125
Vehicles		235	266
Terrain "Cubes"		191	249
Points Distriution
28mm		44.9%	55.6%
15mm		12.2%	16.4%
6mm		3.2%	1.7%
Terrain		5.5%	6.1%
Challenge Isls / Fortnights		19.0%	12.4%
Other Bonus		6.0%	4.1%
Other		9.2%	3.7%
Total		100.0%	100.0%

Economic Value Add:

Perhaps the most favorite part of the stats update is the Economic Value Add (EVA) calculation for the Challenge.  It always surprises me it's so popular as I'm making this SH*** up - oops- I mean most people just aren't interested in complex, highly researched mathematical calculations - yeah that's it.

The methodology is pretty simple.  The total points for the challenge is transmorgrafied into an equivalent number of 28mm infantry figures.  The formula for doing so it just wayyyy to complex to go into here.  This equivalent 28mm infantry figure is then passed on to a crack team of statistical commandoes who were sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit.   The team promptly escaped from that prison into the statistical underground (grad students) where they met up with me.   Our mathematical A-team then estimates the cost of production and also a replacement velocity factor as WE ALL KNOW that each mini painted MUST BE replaced by multiples of other figures.  Once all of these factors are set, the EVA is calculated and the team sits backs in contentment, as they love it when a stat comes together.  The whole process is as wondrous as it is precise.  In fact, I pity the fool who disputes any of these assumptions.  

The team did ask me pass along two things: (i) the velocity factor for Challenge X was increased from 4 to 5 to reflect the increased importance of the hobby to all of us during these trying days. and (ii) while still wanted by the government, they survive today as mathematical soldiers of fortune.  If you have a problem, that no one else can solve and you can find them, maybe you can hire the A-Team.

Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)			CHALLENGE X
Total Points	68,878
Equivalent 28mm	13,776		Economic
			Value Add		Previous:
Cost per Mini	$2.75		$37,883		$2.75
Paints etc	$2.50		$34,439		$2.50
Painting TIme	$12.50		$172,195		$12.50
Sub Total	$17.75		$244,517
Velocity	5		$1,222,585		4

WOW!!!  Challenge X has created 1.2MM in total economic value - suck on on that Coronavisrus!

The total impact of the all the Challenges in terms of EVA is:

EVA Trendline ($000's)											Lifetime
	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X	Total
Participants	6	24	48	61	72	88	96	76	85	68	624
Total Points	2,245	30,565	42,079	59,935	65,105	64,690	83,200	78,038	81,445	68,878	576,180
Equivalent 28mm	449	6,113	8,416	11,987	13,021	12,938	16,640	15,608	16,289	13,776	115,236
Historical EVA	$14	$193	$266	$379	$500	$569	$899	$996	$1,157	$1,223	$6,197
Restated EVA	$32	$434	$598	$851	$924	$919	$1,181	$1,108	$1,157	$1,223	$8,426

$8.4MM US Dollars - woo-hoo, lets go buy a yacht. 

Halls of Vallejohalla

It's now time to once again venture into the hallowed Halls of Vallejohalla where we enshrine the top 25 individual performances to date for the Challenge.  I know in past stats update this list was limited to 20, but 25 seems far more appropriate.  The fact that expanding to 25 lets another one of my muddled efforts onto the scroll is just a coincidence.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Challenge X saw 2 names entered on the scroll - congrats to both NoelW and MartinC.  Vey well done in especially trying times.

Rank	Challenge	Challenger	Points
1	9	NoelW	6,268
2	8	KentG	5,343
3	9	MilesR	5,051
4	10	NoelW	5,011
5	2	RayR	4,940
6	8	NoelW	4,880
7	2	KentG	4,724
8	8	MilesR	4,550
9	9	MartinC	4,470
10	4	AndrewS	4,180
11	5	DaveD	4,138
12	7	MilesR	4,125
13	3	ChrisP	4,076
14	7	MartinC	4,051
15	8	ByronM	3,881
16	5	MarkO	3,854
17	8	MartinC	3,844
18	10	MartinC	3,789
10	3	JamesB	3,761
20	7	GrahameH	3,611
21	7	DaveD	3,586
22	10	MilesR	3,475
23	9	TamsinP	3,426
24	2	TimB	3,385
25	6	MilesR	3,306

THE LEAGUE OF PAINTING GAINTS

(Yes, its that important to use all caps)

As we bring this statistical review to a close, we must now all pay homage the the LEAGUE OF PAINTING GIANTS - those individuals with the highest cumulative score across all of the challenges.  These pigmentation titans have proven time and again to have the fortitude to sit huddled over a work bench bringing lumps of metal or plastic to life with their god-like powers (OK that was a little over-the-top).

To be a member of thus august conclave is truly one of life's greatest accomplishments and all the members should be proud of their achievements.  Just a reminder, it is considered appropriate for non-league members* to genuflect while in the presence of these Painting Potentates and to also pick up their bar tabs. 

* also referred to as riff-raff, noobs, and people with active social lives

I'd like to welcome GregB to the "Circle of 10K" and also MartinC and DaveD to the exclusive "Commodores 20k Club".  Gentlemen your painting jackets and leather chairs have been ordered.  I await you in the League's club room with brandy snifters for you all.

Rank	Name	Lieftime Points	# of Challenges	Pts/Challenge
1	MilesR	28,135	9	3,126
2	MartinC	22,094	6	3,682
3	DaveD	20,007	9	2,223
4	NoelW	16,159	3	5,386
5	RayR	15,841	9	1,760
6	TamsinP	15,631	7	2,233
7	AlexS	13,516	5	2,703
8	ByronM	13,173	7	1,882
9	KentG	12,518	3	4,173
10	GregB	11,294	10	1,129
11	FranL	11,294	6	1,882
12	Millsy	10,365	7	1,481
13	DavidB	9,238	6	1,540
14	EricM	8,860	4	2,215
15	IanW	8,769	7	1,253
16	AlanD	8,691	7	1,242
17	JohnM	8,679	10	868
18	AdamC	8,347	6	1,391
19	Curt C	7,560	9	840
20	SamuliS	7,154	8	894
21	GrahameH	7,145	3	2,382
22	KenR	7,123	4	1,781
23	BrendonW	6,859	7	980
24	MikeW	6,474	4	1,619
25	Barks	6,469	5	1,294

Well that's it for the stats review.  Please feel free to comment on it's brilliance.

There will be a deep dive on Challenge Island in a few days.  If you're nice I may even include some graphs for those of you who are easily entertained.

Thanks again for a wonderful Challenge - stay healthy and safe.

Miles

Hey Jasper / Guy - this would be a great article in WSS, just saying you know......