One quick comment on quarantines, if you're not sure of what to do in these difficult times or just need to be reassured look to your friendly neighborhood mathamagician for guidance. We are experts at Social Distancing and have been practicing those skills pretty much our entire lives. Welcome to our world, BI*****.
Ok, enough with the Public Service Announcements and on with the stats.
Challenge X was a fantastic affair but it differed from past Challenges in two key ways. Most obvious was the replacement of the tried and true thematic bonus rounds with the brilliant concept of "Challenge Island". As the numbers bear out, Challenge Island really impacted participant behavior and was, in my humble opinion, a smashing success.
The other big difference is the "real world" intruded on our little hobby safe space in an unprecedented way. We started this Challenge with a portion of our participants struggling with a devastating fires in Australia only to end up all engulfed in a economic scorched earth fight against a microscopic foe and governmental complacency (I'm being polite and that will be be my only editorial comment).
These events brought home to me two important points: (i) how much I value this community and appreciate everyones contributions - even PeterD's (well, kind of) and (ii) while I often describe our hobby in self deprecating terms, it has been of critical importance to me as a stress reliever in an a time of economic and biological upheaval. Having the ability to do so with all of you and be inspired by your collective efforts has been a true privilege.
Sadly, I suspect most of you are thinking "my God, when will this idiot stop rambling and get on to the numbers, those cold, hard beautiful numbers".
Your wish is granted, but no graphs - yet.....
Lets Take a look at a Summary of Challenge X vs IX:
Challenge X was more "efficient" vs IX in terms of the number of participants with 68 vs 85 but on a relative basis outperformed IX by a wide margin. (I do wish the participant number was 69 as I missed Millsy's contributions).
Several key highlights about X include:
- We almost cracked the 1k mark in the number of submissions
- Participants submitted a lot more submissions individually - averaging 14 vs last years 11
- Challenge Island proved to be much more popular than the thematic rounds - generating a total of 448 of this years 956 submissions. I'll be doing a deep dive on Challenge Island in a later post, but to put that number in perspective, past challenges averaged 175 theme round submissions (198 during IX out of 920 total submissions. We call this in the stats biz "statistically significant". I do know how you all go crazy when I talk statsy.
- 28mm figures painted saw a big drop-off in both numbers and relative share
- There were a lot more bonus points awarded but the "core-painting score" per participant wasn't that much lower at 759 vs 800. (this measure excludes all bonus points of any form)
Still some things remained the same
- we beat target by an almost identical amount 107% for X vs 105% during IX
- had a 100% participation rate
Perhaps most surprising to me is that the Point-O-Projector Apparatus proved to be scary accurate. A the end of week 4, the projection for total challenge points was 68,429 and when the dust settled on X we ended up at 68,878, an overage of just 449 points or 0.7%!!!! If only I hadn't submitted my last entry - those 6mm Russo-Japanese war bastards netted me 465 points!!!!
Anyway (as the authors pats his own back in undeserved praise) that was a pretty damn good forecast!
You may now all oogle the performance summary. Try not to fall under the spell of its awesome and terrible beauty.
Economic Value Add: