Saturday, 6 January 2018

WOO-HOO! It's STATS Time, Baby!!!!!!

That's right, Stats-Fans, it time for your all time favorite part of the challenge.  Yes, its stats-time!!!  You better get prepared 'cause I'm going lay some stats-math down on you like a baseball bat* to the head.

* for those commonwealth types who are of a particularly sensitive nature please replace the brutish American term "baseball bat" with the much more erudite and calming term "cricket bat".  Look at me be all caring-like.

Challenge VIII is off to a fast start and of the 80 stalwart Challenge-a-nista's who have embarked upon this pigment adventure, a stunning 52 have made a submission within the first 2 weeks.  That's a record breaking two week participation rate of 65%.  Even more astounding is that the "Fast 52", as this group has been dubbed by the Fake Media, have collectively made 118 submissions over that first 2 week period smashing yet another record.

I'll pause here while all of you get over the "vapors" this shocking news must have inflicted upon you.  Take your time, there's no shame in fainting.

OK, ready to move ahead.  No?, I don't care - we're Oscar Mike.

Lets take a look at the KPI chart of doom and compare the first 2 weeks of VIII vs VII:

Weeks Completed22
Weeks Remaining1111
Participants w/ a Submission524710.64%
Total Submissions1188932.58%
Total Points7,1847,711-6.83%
Participation Rate65%47%
Average per Submitter138164-15.79%
Avg per Submission6187-29.73%
Submitter % of Target Completed15%16%-1%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds7,5009,261-1,761
Non Submitters @ 50%6,76913,358-6,589
Projected Total Points60,96572,741-11,775
Figures Painted
Cav / Art4769-31.88%
Cav / Art1628-42.86%
Cav / Art2211100.00%
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%0%
Other Scales15%4%

I'm sure all of you have be drawn to the Projected Points from my secret Point-O-Projectorama machine.  It does require the sacrifice of several small mammals to keep the gears running but that's something we have to do for the sake of science.  Anyway, once the wailing subsided I was able to divine a points projection for VIII - and have determined that this august group of Pigment Warriors will generate close to 61K in total points.  That's a bit off the pace of last year but there are only 80 participants for VIII vs the 100 for VII.

In truth, these initial estimates tend to be biased conservatively.  For example last year's the Point-O-Projectorama prognosticated 73K and we came in at 83K.  Similar error terms occurred in Challenges VI and V.  So if we take the derivate of - HEY YOU IN THE BACK, WAKE UP, THIS IS REALLY EXCITING STUFF THAT IS ROCKING YOUR WORLD AS WE SPEAK.  Sorry, Stats make me a bit crazy.  Anyway, my gut tells me we'll probably chime in in the 67K range when the dust settles.  Since my gut is rather ample, it's rarely wrong.

There other trend I've noticed is a resurgence of 6MM scale submissions - I doubt they will dethrone 28mm as the champ but there is a lot of activity there.

While I hate to end the exciting topic of stats on a somber note, we do have to consider the status of the "Late 28" - those lost souls without a submission for this challenge.  Let us all hope that they soon see the error of their ways and join us on the path of painting enlightenment.  Perhaps soothing words of encouragement in the comments section below will help them throw off their indolence and take up their brushes once more.  Let us all pray that, one day, they will also be assimulated.


  1. Good to see our mathematurgist back to befuddle us all with arcane calculations and obscure theorems based on mysterious assumptions.

    When comparing the stats for this year against those of last, one must also take into account the reduced number of entrants - 80 starters this year against 100 (82 who submitted entries) of AHPC7.

  2. Bestill my beating heart those are some serious stats. Clearly Miles you are a veritable Stable Genius.

  3. I love these posts Miles, keep them up!

  4. I'm still reeling from Miles' 'stats concussion' so that must be good.

    I'm encouraged that you are using the very same principles that predicted a crushing Democratic victory in November 2016. Oh, wait...

  5. I'm not sure what I just read my mind is still a buzz with numbers and strange words, we do say a prayer for the lost souls who's brushes a now still but yet may rise from painting death to life once more, the time is short my friends the hour is near let us lift up our brushes for as our miniatures cry out paint me. Amen

    1. So let it be written, so let it be done.

  6. Is it wrong to be a little bit turned on* after reading that?

    * Not really, just throwing Miles a bone. Hmmmm... probably a poor choice of words actually.

    1. Hey Sailor, standard deviations are extra

    2. Visions of Miles down by the docks with a rolled-up pie chart sticking out of his codpiece and a sign saying "Get It Here"...

  7. The mentat has spoken!

    Miles - does your secret Point-O-Projectorama machine (patent pending) use poisson distribution as part of its projection formulae? The Babbage machine does!

    1. "It is by stats alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the spreadsheet of Excel that thoughts acquire speed..."

    2. The vision becomes blurred, the blur becomes a warning,
      It is by stats alone I set my mind in motion.

  8. Thank the Gods that someone is compiling this information - and thank the Great Gods, the Elder Gods, the Gods Who Were Before The Gods, that someone isn't me!

  9. Okay, okay is there a doctor in the room! I need some valium fast!