Sunday, 12 February 2023

Challenge XIII: Midway Statistical Check In

 

Many of you have been asking about the Statistical Updates on the Challenge.  I constantly get bombarded with requests "we need stats" or "please, Please gimmie some stats" - Of course, when I say most of you, I really mean none of you, but dammit, you should have asked.  I'm sure it's because you are shy.


Don't worry, your thirst for stats is about to get a lit sip of knowledge.  Your welcome.


Through the Feb 10th halfway point we have the following production statistics, which will be compared to Challenge 12 for fun


Challenge Halfway Point

XIIIXII
Total Points46,45048,064
Posts464490
Active Challengers8197
Points per Post10098
Points per Challenger573496
Posts per Challenger                    5.7                    5.0
Scale SummaryXIIIXII
28mm51.1%54.3%
15mm9.9%10.0%
6mm4.6%1.4%
20mm0.5%2.9%
10mm4.1%4.9%
40mm4.3%4.4%
54mm0.6%1.9%
terrain5.5%4.1%
Other1.4%0.3%
Bonus Points18.0%15.7%
Total100.0%100.0%

Despite having 16 less participants, Challenge XII is performing nearly the same as XII points wise but this years participants are a bit more productive in terms of points per challenger.

In terms of scale, 28mm remains the dominant scale of choice but 6mm seems to be staging a rather nice comeback.  The other interesting feature is that the studio challenge seems to be even more popular given the healthy increase in bonus points (which are mostly studio related).

In terms of a points prediction for the year, lets see.....  Ok in past challenges we have posted roughly 56% of total challenge points by the midway point.  We all kind of enter the February doldrums were production does slow a bit and then bound into "Manic March" for the crazy finish.  I've done extensive data mining on this year crew - you know the standard invasive things like credit reports, social media stalking, interviewing friends, relatives and former cellmates.  All the normal, non creepy, stuff us financial types revel in.  The findings from my research, while disturbing in many ways, provides me the confidence to say this crew will not slack off this month and we will post, when the dust is settled 91,000 points.  Lets see what the final half of XIII holds for us all.

DO NOT LET ME DOWN

Now back to your painting benches you beautiful pigmentation warriors!

17 comments:

  1. *makes note of 91k prediction in case it doesn't transpire and Miles sneaks back to edit his prediction*

    Always good to see the stats, even if we didn't ask for them! :)

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    1. Whiskey Tab on Miles if he is wrong....triple distilled, Miles not paint thinner! ;)

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    2. Done - We can meet at the Black Dog pub in Vauxhall

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    3. Tamsin - wouldn't do something as crude as editing your post - that would just be wrong. No I'll go in and monkey with the spreadsheet - that's the proper financial type way of outcome manipulation.

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  2. Well done Miles, there's lies, damned lies and statistics :-)
    Now if we all lie we might top 100k!

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  3. Thank you for the stats roundup, Mr. Miles! Yes, I'm positive that we'll handily break our 67,610 target. Now, let's see if we can achieve our StatsMage's lofty 91K estimate.

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  4. Looks qwe are on track to another spectacular Challenge

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  5. Thanks for fantastic stats work - better keep on painting .....
    Cheers JezT

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  6. Love me some stats. I'm going to guess most of that 1.4% other scale is Ray's crazy 2mm project. ;-)

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  7. Excellent, almost reads like porn

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  8. Needs pie charts - or just more pies!

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  9. And where is the duals wallahs update huh!

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  10. All very interesting, it true (truly) but the real questions on everybody's mind (deliberate or hypno-enforced) are clearly Turnip related:
    - What is the % increase in Turnip related entries this year?
    - How many more challengers have presented root related entries?
    - Can I please get an ointment to treat this unsightly, weeping blemish sore?

    Come on Spreadsheet of Doom - we know you won't let us down buddy!

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    Replies
    1. What’s the % of Turnip free days

      What is the R number for Turnip entries

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    2. Turnip miniatures are the Cordyceps of the miniature world. They are a blight that will RUIN us all - RUIN US, I SAY!!!! Harumphhh.

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  11. Rodger Doger, back to my painting desk it is

    Cheers
    MattW
    French Wargame Holidays

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