Monday 16 January 2017

MIlesR: Week 4 Stats Update

Brace yourselves indeed, cause the bi-weekly AHPC Statistical Update is coming at you with a full load of mind numbing mathematical minutia.

That's right, Stats Fans, the numbers are in and the inferences are statistically significant.

The past two weeks saw a large increase in painting submissions, and we now stand with 81 of our 100 fellow challengers having made a submission.  As of tonight (Jan 15th) there have been 239 total submissions, including a staggering 47 (50 Ed.) entries in the armor (Armour Ed.) bonus round - that's a record!)

Lets go to the trend table and comparison to this time last year:

AHPC VII: THE STATS ROUNDUP
KPI's:
Weeks Completed24681113
Weeks Remaining1197520
Participants w/ a Submission4781
Total Submissions89239
Total Points7,71121,906
Participation Rate47%81%
Average per Submitter164270
Avg per Submission8792
Submitter % of Target Completed16%32%
Projected Points
Submitters50,12269,950
Remaining Bouns Rounds9,2616,787
Non Submitters @ 25%13,3581,657
Projected Total Points72,74178,394
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf1,1002,339
Cav / Art69155
Vehicles2055
15MM
Inf179697
Cav / Art28178
Vehicles1663
6MM
Inf4791,051
Cav / Art1118
Vehicles35214
Score Distribution
28MM84%64%
15MM7%11%
6MM4%4%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%11%
Other Scales4%9%
Total100%100%

Total scored points almost tripled to just under 22K over the past 2 weeks and we're at a 81% participation rate.  As with past challenges, the pace of submissions really jumps in weeks 3 and 4 once people are past the Holidays.  We saw a total of 150 submissions in weeks 3 and 4 vs the 89 we saw in the first 2 weeks of the Challenge.  Scientist all over the world are still debating the significance of the "Post Christmas-Rush".  I, for one, humbly submit it's proof positive that Holiday family obligations tend to negatively impact painting productivity.

In terms of participation, this years Challenge is at an all time high of 81% - even more impressive was the fact that the first bonus round (armor - and yes that is the CORRECT WAY to spell armour (Wrong. Ed.) shattered yet another record with 47 (50 Ed.) participants.  Umm it's actually 51....

I'm sure your all sitting there at your screens in breathless anticipation of what all this record breaking activity implies for the projected total points output.  Well lets crank up the ole Point-o-Projector Mechanism and dare to see the future.....

add the 3, carry the 4, sacrifice the goat and chant the dark statistical incantations ....

BOOOOMMMM!!!!

The number 78,394 emerges from the gloom to illuminate our lives with its unnecessary exactness.

I think I may be slightly over estimating but that's where the math stands.

In terms of scales, 28mm continues it's right and just domination of the tallies.  We did see the first inclusion of bonus round points (2,500 from the Armor (Armour Ed.) round).

We do have some ominous news to report - the fate of the 19 non-submitters, now referred to as the "Missing 19" is in serious doubt.  After painting up a passel of Spanish Fascists, it seems Curt has adopted a more authoritarian tone and making moves to purge the rolls of the missing 19.  While the Challenge Constitution gives him the power to make such decrees in times of emergency and he has done so with proper notifications, such a move is unprecedented.  All I can say from my position of Challenge Statistician is that Curt is adorable when he acts all authoritarian-like (Funny, Sarah says the same thing. Ed.). 

Comparing the first 4 weeks of VII vs VI:

Compared to Last Year
KPI's:VIIVI
Weeks Completed44
Weeks Remaining99
Participants w/ a Submission8161
Total Submissions239231
Total Points21,90618,328
Participation Rate81%69%
Average per Submitter270300
Avg per Submission9279
Submitter % of Target Completed32%34%
Projected Points
Submitters69,95054,984
Remaining Bouns Rounds6,78710,250
Non Submitters 1,6574,056
Projected Total Points78,39469,290
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf2,3392,042
Cav / Art155140
Vehicles5540
15MM
Inf697239
Cav / Art17825
Vehicles6328
6MM
Inf1,0511,153
Cav / Art18180
Vehicles214133
97
Score Distribution
28MM64%67%
15MM11%4%
6MM4%6%
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"11%11%
Other Scales9%13%
Total100%100%

The key comparison is that everything seems to be on the same glide path but just a bit bigger.  Kind of like my waist line each passing year...

Well there you have, the Stats Update for week 4 is in the books.  All Hail Math, All Hail Math...

(Jeez. Can't spell. Can't do math with his socks on. How did this guy get this job? Oh wait... Ed.)

16 comments:

  1. I'd armoured myself for this. I will be taught spelling by a country that thinks gray is a colour not a name. Fantastic report. an epic challenge to date, well done to all submitters. now where are the missing 19

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Re the Missing 19: The black helicopters have been dispatched...

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  2. Replies
    1. There is only one GIMP and the statistical formula used to determine who it is uses one constant factor "repeat calculations until Millsy is the GIMP" ;)

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  3. The numbers are always interesting with a side of TMI

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  4. "After painting up a passel of Spanish Fascists, it seems Curt has adopted a more authoritarian tone and making moves to purge the rolls of the missing 19..."

    You see, that's where the totalitarian Left is SO much cooler than the Fascist Right; we say 'liquidate'. Has such a lovely supervillain-y ring to it!

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  5. Impressive looking stats, but I don't know if I can trust the analysis of someone who failed to proof read the misspelling of armour. Also you are the product of an educational system test clearly does not value critical thinking based on your election results. Plus Curt (there's a reason he doesn't do the numbers) found numeric errors....

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  6. Got to love numbers, 6mm will rise and take their rightful place as number 1. Stand tall my boys

    Ian

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  7. Great analysis as always Miles. An interesting additional KPI to consider would be how many/what percentage of participants have reached their challenge target. We could then see how many individuals reach their goal as weeks progress, and when it occurs (just how big a ground swell is that inevitable last minute rush?)

    Just checked my English dictionary - definitely a U in that word :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Paul - it's there - see the line called "submitter % of target completed, which is the sum of all points divided by sum of the target points for those people who did submit

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  8. Has anyone (other than Sarah) called Curt "adorable" before?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think my mom may have tried the word out just after I was born, but then quickly came to her senses. ;)

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  9. Arrgh...it's all witchcraft...

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  10. Interesting stuff, I seem to go against the grain as my painting output has dropped off big time following the holidays. Still having a stare off with a half painted unit of AWI Cavalry !

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  11. absolutely super post, I cannot remember having had such a good laugh when reading a numbers analyse.

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