Challenge X: Stats Review - A Victory Won by Tiny Brushes Over an Even Tinier Virus

Bang the Drums, Ring the Bells, kick the Cats then ALERT THE MEDIA cause it's time once again for the Analogue Hobbies Painting Challenge Statistical Review: Version X - Challenge Island Quarantine Edition!

One quick comment on quarantines, if you're not sure of what to do in these difficult times or just need to be reassured look to your friendly neighborhood mathamagician for guidance.  We are experts at Social Distancing and have been practicing those skills pretty much our entire lives.  Welcome to our world, BI*****.

Ok, enough with the Public Service Announcements and on with the stats.

Challenge X was a fantastic affair but it differed from past Challenges in two key ways.  Most obvious was the replacement of the tried and true thematic bonus rounds with the brilliant concept of "Challenge Island".  As the numbers bear out, Challenge Island really impacted participant behavior and was, in my humble opinion, a smashing success.

The other big difference is the "real world" intruded on our little hobby safe space in an unprecedented way.  We started this Challenge with a portion of our participants struggling with a devastating fires in Australia only to end up all engulfed in a economic scorched earth fight against a microscopic foe and governmental complacency (I'm being polite and that will be be my only editorial comment).

These events brought home to me two important points: (i) how much I value this community and appreciate everyones contributions - even PeterD's (well, kind of) and (ii) while I often describe our hobby in self deprecating terms, it has been of critical importance to me as a stress reliever in an a time of economic and biological upheaval.  Having the ability to do so with all of you and be inspired by your collective efforts has been a true privilege.

Sadly, I suspect most of you are thinking "my God, when will this idiot stop rambling and get on to the numbers, those cold, hard beautiful numbers".

Your wish is granted, but no graphs - yet.....

Lets Take a look at a Summary of Challenge X vs IX:

Challenge X was more "efficient" vs IX in terms of the number of participants with 68 vs 85 but on a relative basis outperformed IX by a wide margin.  (I do wish the participant number was 69 as I missed Millsy's contributions).

Several key highlights about X include:
- We almost cracked the 1k mark in the number of submissions
- Participants submitted a lot more submissions individually - averaging 14 vs last years 11
- Challenge Island proved to be much more popular than the thematic rounds - generating a total of 448 of this years 956 submissions.  I'll be doing a deep dive on Challenge Island in a later post, but to put that number in perspective, past challenges averaged 175 theme round submissions (198 during IX out of 920 total submissions.  We call this in the stats biz "statistically significant".  I do know how you all go crazy when I talk statsy.
- 28mm figures painted saw a big drop-off in both numbers and relative share
- There were a lot more bonus points awarded but the "core-painting score" per participant wasn't that  much lower at 759 vs 800.  (this measure excludes all bonus points of any form)

Still some things remained the same
- we beat target by an almost identical amount 107% for X vs 105% during IX
- had a 100% participation rate

Perhaps most surprising to me is that the Point-O-Projector Apparatus proved to be scary accurate.  A the end of week 4, the projection for total challenge points was 68,429 and when the dust settled on X we ended up at 68,878, an overage of just 449 points or 0.7%!!!!  If only I hadn't submitted my last entry - those 6mm Russo-Japanese war bastards netted me 465 points!!!!

Anyway (as the authors pats his own back in undeserved praise) that was a pretty damn good forecast!

 You may now all oogle the performance summary.  Try not to fall under the spell of its awesome and terrible beauty.

AHPC X: Stats Summary		X	IX
Total Points		68,878	81,445
% of Target		107%	105%
Participants		68	85
# of Submissions		956	920
Participation Rate		100%	99%
Submission / Participant		14	11
Avg Pts per Submitter		1,013	958
Avg Pts per Submission		72	89
Painting Pts / Participant		759	800
Bonus Pts / Participant		254	158
Projected Points		68,429	79,428
Proj % of Target		100.7%	102.5%
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf		4,785	6,841
Cav / Art		454	812
Vehicles		122	146
15MM
Inf		2,083	4,387
Cav / Art		588	619
Vehicles		144	390
6MM
Inf		2,496	1,418
Cav / Art		471	125
Vehicles		235	266
Terrain "Cubes"		191	249
Points Distriution
28mm		44.9%	55.6%
15mm		12.2%	16.4%
6mm		3.2%	1.7%
Terrain		5.5%	6.1%
Challenge Isls / Fortnights		19.0%	12.4%
Other Bonus		6.0%	4.1%
Other		9.2%	3.7%
Total		100.0%	100.0%

Economic Value Add:

Perhaps the most favorite part of the stats update is the Economic Value Add (EVA) calculation for the Challenge.  It always surprises me it's so popular as I'm making this SH*** up - oops- I mean most people just aren't interested in complex, highly researched mathematical calculations - yeah that's it.

The methodology is pretty simple.  The total points for the challenge is transmorgrafied into an equivalent number of 28mm infantry figures.  The formula for doing so it just wayyyy to complex to go into here.  This equivalent 28mm infantry figure is then passed on to a crack team of statistical commandoes who were sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit.   The team promptly escaped from that prison into the statistical underground (grad students) where they met up with me.   Our mathematical A-team then estimates the cost of production and also a replacement velocity factor as WE ALL KNOW that each mini painted MUST BE replaced by multiples of other figures.  Once all of these factors are set, the EVA is calculated and the team sits backs in contentment, as they love it when a stat comes together.  The whole process is as wondrous as it is precise.  In fact, I pity the fool who disputes any of these assumptions.  

The team did ask me pass along two things: (i) the velocity factor for Challenge X was increased from 4 to 5 to reflect the increased importance of the hobby to all of us during these trying days. and (ii) while still wanted by the government, they survive today as mathematical soldiers of fortune.  If you have a problem, that no one else can solve and you can find them, maybe you can hire the A-Team.

Ecomonic Value Add (EVA)			CHALLENGE X
Total Points	68,878
Equivalent 28mm	13,776		Economic
			Value Add		Previous:
Cost per Mini	$2.75		$37,883		$2.75
Paints etc	$2.50		$34,439		$2.50
Painting TIme	$12.50		$172,195		$12.50
Sub Total	$17.75		$244,517
Velocity	5		$1,222,585		4

WOW!!!  Challenge X has created 1.2MM in total economic value - suck on on that Coronavisrus!

The total impact of the all the Challenges in terms of EVA is:

EVA Trendline ($000's)											Lifetime
	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X	Total
Participants	6	24	48	61	72	88	96	76	85	68	624
Total Points	2,245	30,565	42,079	59,935	65,105	64,690	83,200	78,038	81,445	68,878	576,180
Equivalent 28mm	449	6,113	8,416	11,987	13,021	12,938	16,640	15,608	16,289	13,776	115,236
Historical EVA	$14	$193	$266	$379	$500	$569	$899	$996	$1,157	$1,223	$6,197
Restated EVA	$32	$434	$598	$851	$924	$919	$1,181	$1,108	$1,157	$1,223	$8,426

$8.4MM US Dollars - woo-hoo, lets go buy a yacht. 

Halls of Vallejohalla

It's now time to once again venture into the hallowed Halls of Vallejohalla where we enshrine the top 25 individual performances to date for the Challenge.  I know in past stats update this list was limited to 20, but 25 seems far more appropriate.  The fact that expanding to 25 lets another one of my muddled efforts onto the scroll is just a coincidence.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Challenge X saw 2 names entered on the scroll - congrats to both NoelW and MartinC.  Vey well done in especially trying times.

Rank	Challenge	Challenger	Points
1	9	NoelW	6,268
2	8	KentG	5,343
3	9	MilesR	5,051
4	10	NoelW	5,011
5	2	RayR	4,940
6	8	NoelW	4,880
7	2	KentG	4,724
8	8	MilesR	4,550
9	9	MartinC	4,470
10	4	AndrewS	4,180
11	5	DaveD	4,138
12	7	MilesR	4,125
13	3	ChrisP	4,076
14	7	MartinC	4,051
15	8	ByronM	3,881
16	5	MarkO	3,854
17	8	MartinC	3,844
18	10	MartinC	3,789
10	3	JamesB	3,761
20	7	GrahameH	3,611
21	7	DaveD	3,586
22	10	MilesR	3,475
23	9	TamsinP	3,426
24	2	TimB	3,385
25	6	MilesR	3,306

THE LEAGUE OF PAINTING GAINTS

(Yes, its that important to use all caps)

As we bring this statistical review to a close, we must now all pay homage the the LEAGUE OF PAINTING GIANTS - those individuals with the highest cumulative score across all of the challenges.  These pigmentation titans have proven time and again to have the fortitude to sit huddled over a work bench bringing lumps of metal or plastic to life with their god-like powers (OK that was a little over-the-top).

To be a member of thus august conclave is truly one of life's greatest accomplishments and all the members should be proud of their achievements.  Just a reminder, it is considered appropriate for non-league members* to genuflect while in the presence of these Painting Potentates and to also pick up their bar tabs. 

* also referred to as riff-raff, noobs, and people with active social lives

I'd like to welcome GregB to the "Circle of 10K" and also MartinC and DaveD to the exclusive "Commodores 20k Club".  Gentlemen your painting jackets and leather chairs have been ordered.  I await you in the League's club room with brandy snifters for you all.

Rank	Name	Lieftime Points	# of Challenges	Pts/Challenge
1	MilesR	28,135	9	3,126
2	MartinC	22,094	6	3,682
3	DaveD	20,007	9	2,223
4	NoelW	16,159	3	5,386
5	RayR	15,841	9	1,760
6	TamsinP	15,631	7	2,233
7	AlexS	13,516	5	2,703
8	ByronM	13,173	7	1,882
9	KentG	12,518	3	4,173
10	GregB	11,294	10	1,129
11	FranL	11,294	6	1,882
12	Millsy	10,365	7	1,481
13	DavidB	9,238	6	1,540
14	EricM	8,860	4	2,215
15	IanW	8,769	7	1,253
16	AlanD	8,691	7	1,242
17	JohnM	8,679	10	868
18	AdamC	8,347	6	1,391
19	Curt C	7,560	9	840
20	SamuliS	7,154	8	894
21	GrahameH	7,145	3	2,382
22	KenR	7,123	4	1,781
23	BrendonW	6,859	7	980
24	MikeW	6,474	4	1,619
25	Barks	6,469	5	1,294

Well that's it for the stats review.  Please feel free to comment on it's brilliance.

There will be a deep dive on Challenge Island in a few days.  If you're nice I may even include some graphs for those of you who are easily entertained.

Thanks again for a wonderful Challenge - stay healthy and safe.

Miles

Hey Jasper / Guy - this would be a great article in WSS, just saying you know......

From AlexS: Хорошо! (Good!)

Hello everybody! My name is Alex, I'm from Russia!

I was very happy to take part in a wonderful new event. I really liked the idea with the island and the transition from location to location, and I even painted more than I originally planned. Here are so many:

I did a whole project dedicated to the mythical pirate republic on the island of Madagascar, described by Daniel Defoe. It now has huts, and the jungle, and soldiers of the East India campaign, and African savages with shamans and a noble leader, and, of course, pirates.

Next - I made many miniatures as part of my project "Sicilian Normans." On March 22-23, a story event on the basis of the SAGA system was to be held, and these miniatures were supposed to take part in it, but despite the fact that we have almost no cases of the new virus in the city, it was canceled. It happens...

I also did a little for my old project - the Wild West, which I started during the last event.

In addition, I made even the little things of different miniatures and terrain elements. Special thanks to Сurt for challenging me at the peak of the Snow Lord and I discovered something new in myself - I made a three-dimensional map of the island. It was interesting and exciting.

It was a wonderful three months in my life. I am grateful to Curt and his team of assistants for the time spent. As always, everything was at the highest level. All the participants were great, and to express my admiration, I would have to write everyone’s name and tell how good they are. But then a new event will begin ... But I would especially like to thank Tamsin, who changed her drawing style and I like this new style and inspire me.

Unfortunately, one of two things that I dream of from my first event did not happen: I did not learn English so that I could communicate freely or the language of the event did not become Russian. Therefore, I wrote few comments (позор! - shame! ) And did not understand everything. But I saw that many take photographs of alcoholic drinks on the background of miniatures. I also decided to take such a photo. Thank you all, and see you next time!

TomM's AHPC10 Group shot and parting thoughts...

And so the 10th challenge came to an end, and in a brand new format of a treasure map game.

And I must say, I liked that system a lot!

The benefit I see to it, as a participant, is that you can now plot a course to get your bonus points collected, instead of with bi-weekly deadlines whom tended to steal away your valuable painting time during the course of the challenge, and leave other entries half finished.

Even with Baby Thorin deciding that my Hobbit Hole and the constant rambling of the Ender 3 is the best place to doze off...

Now, I must admit I got into a time crunch as well this year even with all the meticulious planning in the beginning, babies seem to do that to you, so a couple of entries where shortened in from full regiments (the Chaos Dwarves, the 6mm musketeers, ...) to smaller scale entries, and some never got out of the starting blocks ( a full 6mm army for the italians in Russia for example, or a Blood Bowl team).
On the other hand, I did round out two full forces in one go, with my Italian Cruel Seas fleet (which was my biggest entry points wise) and a 6mm Belgian army.

But those where entries from in the beginning, and like in my previous participations, come half of january my speed tended to drop due to a variety of reasons.  I am going to have to take this into account next edition for sure...

But the numbers for this year!

In the end, I amassad a nice 1127 points, which is 127 above my set goal of 1k, and that target was already higher the,n the previous two years (where I had noted down 750 as a goal).  While I didn't score a personal best of over 1500 pts like in the first year, the only real time pressure I got was the Snow Lord finale.  I should have done like others, and visit it asap, then go on the scenic route.  In the end, I made this map of my "by location" entries, and ended up with those included with a nice 27 entries total, averaging about two per week.  Not bad at all...

Now, I managed to visit quite a few of the locations, and had the challenge gone on for 1 more week, the Awdry's Atoll would have been feasible as well.  But heck, with 11 locations visited, that wasn't to shabby for my taste and time.

The challenge reduced the lead mountain in the end by 203 figures, and that is after all everything it is about: getting stuff done (okay, granted, stuff was added for the challenge, and the things never began will go in the closet until next year probably hehehe), so it was another great heap of fun.

It's just a pity I can't get the time of commenting on a lot of entries, because while I did view a lot of them while at work, I just forgot to revisit them in the evenings for some well meant compliments, so by this route, congratulations all to making it a visually very lovely challenge once more.

From LeeH - AHPC X Body of Work - Best Challenge ever!

The Tenth Painting Challenge is over and I don't know about anyone else but I'm all brushed out for the time being. I need to clean up my Operations Room and find a home for the massive amount of stuff I painted! I've only had this hobby room for a few months and it's already FULL! I'm not complaining though, it has been a fantastic challenge and I've been more productive than at any time before. So time for my 'Body of Work' picture.

So what's in that mess-o-models? Quite a bit for me, I'm used to a smaller collection of work by the end of the Challenge. So here's a brief picture review of everything I managed to get done.

I think it must be obvious from these pictures that my work hasn't been dominated by 6mm this year. I had a quick look at my own personal 'Spreadsheet of doom' (yes I have my own!) and it turns out that 880 points from my 1400 total came from other scales. And worse still (according to RayR) nearly half my points were earned from work on a particular ice-bound Fantasy game. At this rate, I'm likely to have my membership of the Rejects revoked! Certainly, my reputation as 'the 6mm historical guy' is in doubt.

As already mentioned, I always keep a tally of my planned projects during the Challenge, tracking my progress as the week's tick past. I'm rather chuffed to say that I've outperformed myself at every stage of the competition. I've achieved a new 'personal best' and by every measure that I count, this has been my best Challenge ever. 

I'm already looking forward to the next Challenge and have started giving some thought as to what I want to paint. Alexanders army to face off against my Indians is a strong contender, but who knows. I look forward to seeing some of you in the recently announced Quarantine Challenge and hope to see many of you in December for Challenge XI.

LeeH (aka BigLee)

TamsinP's AHPC X Group Shot

It took me a little while to get this set up. As I live alone and can't really ask anyone to break their (and my) self isolation to pop in and take pics, it was a bit awkward to get a shot with me and all my painted stuff.- You'll have to forgive me putting two photos up - one with me blocking half of the miniatures out, and one of the miniatures on their own.

The beast in her lair

Whilst my output has been lower on quantity than in previous years, I think everyone will agree that my overall quality has been much higher. And I still finished in 8th place somehow (OK, being early-retired and having no family distractions helped considerably).

It's been a blast and I hope to see you guys again in December for AHPC XI, if not sooner either in real life (when things clam down and return to normal) or in the Quarantine Challenge.

Toodle-pip!

TamsinP

Curt's Challenge X Group Shot

Me along with Felix and Oscar and my new toys from Challenge X. Oscar looks as if he just took a big bite from the walls of Malta (such a good boy).

It's been a silly, crazy-busy year, even without the stress of the Covid-19 outbreak. I work as a section head at our provincial archives and we're in the midst of condensing five large archival repositories into one facility, so lots of long hours and spinning plates organizing for that. So, with all this going on I was absolutely saved by having a terrific team of people to help put on our 10th edition of the Challenge. My thanks again to Byron, Dave, Greg, Martin, Miles, Paul, Peter and Tamsin who did sterling service as our Minion crew. You all were absolutely brilliant. Huzzah! Bravo!!

As to my personal 'haul'? Well, I made it quite close to last year's output, which surprised me as that was a banner year for me, so all-in-all I'm pretty happy with my productivity.

As usual, I was all over the place regarding subject matter, but oddly enough I was fairly fixed on 28mm as the scale-of-choice for this edition. This will change soon as I want to get back to my 2mm Napoleonics in preparation for a future set of games, but it was nice to make inroads on several ongoing projects, namely Spectre moderns, my female Mansion of Madness characters, Napoleonics(!) and my Sisters of Battle (Iain, thanks again for getting me back into this with your very kind gift of figures).

I was particularly happy to participate in James' very worthy 'Joshua Project' and to begin my foray into The Great Siege of Malta.

I found it to be another wonderful Challenge, all made possible by the fantastic people participating in it. The event provided both a great way to while away the winter months and to help ease the stress of current events.

I'll catch up with you all on April 5th for the presentation of our prizes (remember to email me with your top three choices!), but please stay tuned in if you wish to participate in the 'Quarantine Challenge'. I hope to have something posted on that within the next few days.

Warm Regards,

- Curt -