Monday 18 January 2016

From MilesR Week 4 Statistical Update

Happy, happy,  joy, joy, it's statistical story time once again.  So everyone gather round for another thrilling rendition of derring-do with decimal points as we delved into the Analogue Hobbies Painting Challenge VI Week 4 Statistical Update.  Please make sure you are all wearing your Official "AHPC Pocket Protectors" and tin foil hats.  For those reprobates who have misplaced theirs please Professor Douglas as he has loads of extras.  (True but delinquents will need complete a remedial day of dog poop clearing for Curt first.)

So what's the big news for this weeks update?  Participation rates have zoomed up 50% with now 61 of our 88 participants making a submission over week 2's 41.  Productivity also seems to be increasing with the cumulative points soaring to 18,328 in week 4 vs weeks 2's 6,392 - that's a 3x increase and almost surely due to the positive motivational aspects of measurement and analysis.  I'm sure you are all equally inspired by the benefits of progress monitoring and the application of quantitative theory.  For those of you who are, sadly, not so inspired please see me after story time for reprogramming - oops, I mean retraining.

Total projected points has also increased to 69,290 from 58,811 based on arcane and magical estimation techniques.

Perhaps the biggest surprise for me is the relatively limited level of 15mm scaled submissions.  To date only 814 of the 18,328 points earned so far have come in the 15mm scale category.  28mm continues to dominate the points category but 6mm seems to be making a strong bid to be second.  Who will win the duel for second place between 15mm and 6mm?  We will have to wait and see.

So without further ado, here's the detailed stats table of progress through week 4.  Please note this table does include the points earned for the "Nostalgia" bonus round but not the recently posted "Epic Fail".  I have segregated the bonus round participation points so we can keep track of just brush work points.

Behold the stats table - gaze upon it's terrible beauty and fear it's divine wrath.....

KPI's:
Weeks Completed24
Weeks Remaining108
Participants w/ a Submission4161
Total Submissions98231
Total Points6,39218,328
Participation Rate47%69%
Average per Submitter156300
Avg per Submission6579
Submitter % of Target Completed16%34%
Projected Points
Submitters38,35254,984
Remaining Bouns Rounds12,30010,250
Non Submitters @ 25%9,1594,056
Projected Total Points59,81169,290
Figures Painted
28MM
Inf9272,042
Cav / Art34140
Vehicles1940
15MM
Inf30255
Cav / Art434
Vehicles2028
6MM
Inf2081,153
Cav / Art106180
Vehicles97133
Score Distribution
28MM82%67%
15MM3%4%
6MM6%6%
Bonus Round "Bonus"0%11%
Other Scales8%13%
Total100%100%


28 comments:

  1. Forgive me challenge junkies, I was mesmerized by Miles statistical witchcraft and felt oddly compelled to publish this post after reading the draft. Mind you I am now also oddly compelled to cluck like a chicken and break into Edith Piaf songs randomly. Perhaps I need to retune my tin foil hat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Edith Piaf in a tin foil hat?

      Well, I guess it's probably an improvement on your Carmen Miranda phase...

      Delete
    2. Edith Piaf in a tin foil hat?

      Well, I guess it's probably an improvement on your Carmen Miranda phase...

      Delete
    3. I love that opening pic. Actually, I think they might be from my neighborhood...

      Delete
  2. I still submit that Sylvain somehow has too many points...can't we do something about that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can run his bike off the road and make it look like an accident - for a price.....

      Delete
    2. If I was distracted by sudden monetary gain, it's likely there could be a "correction" made in the tracking spreadsheet

      Delete
    3. You could break his paintbrush

      Delete
  3. I await those who have been assigned dog poop detail. As it's -42 today (with windchill) I suggest demo charges and ice picks. I will supply hot chocolate to the survivors...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you paint such an enchanting picture of life in the Great White North during winter. Pure scatalogical elegance.

      Delete
    2. It is a Land of Great Adventure and Opportunity.

      ...and ice and snow.

      Delete
    3. Don't trust the hot chocolate - remember what you've just been scooping! ;)

      Delete
    4. Curt - I think this BBC story will interest you

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35370707/poo-vigilantes-and-other-creative-ways-people-are-tackling-dog-mess?ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=facebook

      Delete
  4. That's a shed load of 28mm infantry. Well done all.

    Dog poop picking up is so much easier in sub freezing weather. If you are partial to golf, you can use a pitching wedge.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Just to make him fill out some more categories I will start submitting both 20mm figures and 10mm figures! And that starts tomorrow!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As of the end of Week 4, there have been the following submissions in 20mm scale: 60 infantry, 9 cav/guns and 1 Vehicle. Sadly, we've had nothing submitted in 10mm

      Fear the awesome power of the spreadsheet

      Delete
  6. Bad news Miles, my wife's starting to ask questions about our tinfoil usage....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Um, where ARE you putting the tinfoil, Peter? ;0)

      Delete
    2. Take a close look at the figures he's painting - their not really metal castings and are actually tin foil origami knock-offs

      Delete
    3. I'll admit I'm cheap, but not that cheap!

      Delete
  7. Everybody sing along...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFNO2sSW-mU

    ReplyDelete
  8. As a former professional Barista, I make damn fine hot beverages and I am quite generous with Baileys Irish Cream, Whiskey or Scotch as a winter beverage enhancement .... Now if any of this is will entice someone, other than me, for dog maintenance, please let me know!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Tin Foil Origami Knock offs hahaha almost had me spitting my ice cold beer all over the keyboard, Oh beach was nice today too. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  10. You need to get out more.... Nice stats though. Very interesting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hmmm, outside in winter with no sailing. Let me think about that, ummm no thank you!

      Besides who isn't excited about stats?

      Delete
  11. Ahh, the magic of numbers. Actually I find these stats quite interesting too.
    The comparison between scales is a good one - I hadn't realised that was so much 6mm. It would be interesting to know what # of entries are related to Frostgrave! :-)

    Sadly (and to my continuing shame) I am one of those still yet to make an entry...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We sit perched at the end of our seats, awaiting your opening volley, Paul. :)

      Delete
  12. Tamsin and IanW are skewing the 6mm data!

    ReplyDelete